Celuien
DAY 1: Her first post is ordinary DAY 1 nonsense. In post 66, she says she doesn't find
Glirdan suspicious, despite his early vote. She finds
Tar's shift from suspecting
Spawn to voting for
Eomer strange. In post 70, she says she doesn't think the False Seer will do much harm, though she does worry a little bit about a wolf impersonating the False Seer. Now, as I've said before, I don't think that the much-maligned DAY 1 "seer talk" was evil or wicked, so these comments look innocent to me. She then comments on
Farael's attack on me, disagreeing with his analysis but also saying that his attack makes him look innocent. At the time, I agreed that it did. Now I'm not so sure, though. One could imagine that
Farael and
Celuien are both wolves and that this was
Celuien's way of backing up
Farael without being too obvious. Post 91 is more speculation about a wolvish impersonation of the False Seer. Doesn't really change my opinion of her either way.
Then she votes for
Gil, putting him at four and thereby ensuring his death. She says this is because she doesn't have much to go on. Of course, no one has much to go on on DAY 1; but obviously
Celuien realized that
Gil was a clear favorite to be lynched and that her vote could well seal his fate. Could very well be a wolf jumping on the bandwagon.
DAY 2: Says she didn't suspect
Holbytlass was gifted. Thinks her death was an unlucky accident. Looks over her posts and doesn't find anything to indicate a Seer; thinks her defense of
mormegil was too light to indicate a dream. Says the False Seer should stay hidden until a known innocent would be more useful. This looks to me like a sensible and innocent suggestion.
Later, she takes a look at
Lhunardawen and
LMP, the two top suspects for the DAY. She seems to conclude that the suspicions of
Lhuna are mostly unfounded, though her response to
Glirdan's suggestion was strange, and that
LMP's vote for
Boromir looked very odd, but that she thinks a wolvish
LMP would not be so obvious. Defends her re-entering the Seer discussion on DAY 1 against
SpM's query.
In post 163, she suddenly picks up on a comment by
Garin and accuses him of having "too much sympathy for the furry type". She doesn't feel comfortable with voting for
LMP, apparently due to his spirited defence. Also says that
Lhuna and
Tar do not look wolvish to her. Still thinks that
Farael,
SpM, and I are innocent, and is willing to consider
Boromir innocent for the moment. Votes for
Garin. Well,
Garin looked suspicious to me too at the time, though it is noteworthy that
Celuien hadn't voiced any suspicion of him until that moment. Hers was the first vote for
Garin, so it doesn't come across as a wolf jumping on an opportunity.
DAY 3: Gives thoughts on each villager. Her comment on
Eomer is:
Quote:
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I can see why he looks suspicious, but there’s not really enough for me to go on to vote for him. Will watch.
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That looks a bit like a wolf hesitating between supporting her fellow and distancing herself from him.
She votes for
Garin again, and again she's the first to do so. Essentially the same as what she did on
DAY 2.
DAY 4: Thinks
Spawn's death looks like a deliberate framing of
Eomer. Doesn't think a wolvish
Eomer would do that. But also acknowledges that it's a possible double-bluff and thus doesn't discount
Eomer from consideration. Again, this looks a lot like a wolf trying to have it both ways in talking about a fellow wolf.
In post 348, she names her suspects as
Farael,
Glirdan,
Formendacil,
Nilpaurion,
Eomer, and
Kath. Thinks that if
Eomer is a wolf, then
Farael is probably not. I disagree with this, since
Farael didn't start to attack
Eomer until the latter looked likely to be lynched. Perhaps the trio is
Eomer,
Farael, and
Celuien, and she was trying to lay the groundwork for a defence of
Farael. She still can't make up her mind about
Eomer.
In post 366, she says she believes
Formendacil's declaration that he is the False Seer. She now says that she suspects
Farael more than
Nilpaurion. She will probably not vote for
Eomer unless something changes.
And late in the DAY we have the much-discussed
Eomer as a Ranger bluff, which
Celuien apparently falls for, voting for
Tar.
There's certainly a fair amount to suspect here. But the
Eomer bluff yesterDAY really leads me to think that she's innocent. Would the wolves have planned something like that so far in advance? Could they pull it off so well without being able to communicate privately? I'm inclined to think they couldn't.
So I'm inclined to think
Celuien is probably innocent, at the moment, if only for that reason.