[Aiwendil]

Night 2

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

Interesting Day 1.

So, it rather looks to me like Farael is the true Seer. His attack on me is just too random and too insubstantial to be that of a clever villager. On the other hand, I wouldn't have expected a Seer to dream of me the first Night - more likely SPM or some other veteran.

The existence of the false Seer gives us some options, though. We could let Farael live even knowing he's the Seer, as he'll be in doubt about it himself.

The downside to killing him toNight, obviously, is that if he does turn out to be the Seer, it'll pretty much confirm that I'm a Wolf. Which might be well worth it to take out the Seer, but it needs some thought.

As I see it, we have three options:

1. Kill Farael toNight, in which case:
a. He is the Seer; I get lynched tomorrow; one or both of you should vote for me.
b. He isn't the Seer; things are speeding along beautifully.

2. Let him live, hoping he doesn't do much more harm. Of course, we could easily kill him some future Night. The chances of him gathering much more useful information in the next few days are fairly slim.

3. Let him live toNight; then sacrifice (or try to sacrifice) me tomorrow (i.e. one of you accuses/votes for me). Then kill Farael the next Night. The advantage of this is that whichever of you went against me would get some real credit with the villagers, since you would have voted for me before it was obvious that I'm a Wolf.

I was thinking that tomorrow I'd start to go after the crowd that voted for Boromir - so mainly after Form and LMP (though after vouching for LMP toDAY, I would be mild against him). But if I'm going to die tomorrow (i.e. if we kill Farael and he turns out to be the Seer), it would probably be better not to go after them - right?

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

Greetings fellow Wolves

OK, first off. I think that we have a slight problem. There are two possible True Seers, as I see it, and it seems that whoever is the True Seer spotted a Wolf on the first night.

I agree, Aiwendil, that Farael looks Seerish for his attack on you. His argument was semi-logical, but appeared cobbled together from what was available (and I thought that you dealt with his “misquotes” very well). That suggests to me that he may be the Seer who has spotted you as a Wolf and was looking for reasons to justify his attack and vote. I am sorry, incidentally, if I added to the suspicion of you, but my intention was to put some distance between us, should either of us be spotted, and also to associate you slightly with littlemanpoet (my bane ). You actually did a great job of encouraging Seer talk, which served to confuse and may yet assist us in finding both Seers.

On the other hand, tar-ancalime’s sudden switch from suspecting dancing spawn to voting for Eomer also looks Seerish to me. I wasn’t lying when I said that I found it strange. It is possible that, after some obligatory suspicion of an innocent, she then voted for the Wolf she had dreamed of. She was rather keen to point out that it was random, but there was really no reasoning behind it at all. Then again, it does make her look rather suspicious. I think that you shrugged off her vote wonderfully, Eomer, and happily you attracted no suspicion elsewhere.

Either way, if we kill one of these and they turn out to be the True Seer, the Wolf that they accused will almost certainly be lynched tomorrow.

I agree with your reasoning on each of these options, but they equally apply to tar-ancalime and Eomer, should she be the Seer. My inclination would be to go for the second option, but then I am not a gambler. We would be unlucky indeed if the True Seer was to spot a Wolf two Nights running (although I am a likely target for a Seer dream). So perhaps we should keep them both alive for now and watching them closely tomorrow. We could switch to option 3 during the course of tomorrow, if either of you gets into serious trouble and then kill the suspected Seer tomorrow Night.

So, who are our other candidates for tonight? The possibilities that I see are as follows:

Anguirel - A tricksy player, suspected only by mormegil (and unlikely to attract suspicion for his first vote for Boromir88), but may be the False Seer (because of his aggressive pursuit of Boromir88) and his death could implicate me (as he voiced mild, although unreasoned, suspicion of me)
Boromir88 - He's dangerous and his death would implicate all of those who voted for him (but is the frame-up too obvious?). However, he could also be the False Seer - he said that he would authorise lynchings if evidence be shown (#5) and then said only the Seer should authorise lynchings (#20). His vote to save himself might suggest that he is a Gifted.
dancing spawn - Also dangerous and suspected by few, but her death might implicate Aiwendil (who she mildly suspected) and Eomer (who mildly suspected her).
Holbytlass - Suspected by no one, but is a quiet player so may attract suspicion.
Kath - Leaves no trace, but I think she will attract suspicion for her quietness and her key vote for Gil-Galad.
Nilpaurion Felagund - Suspected by no one, and doesn't leave much of a trail. His death could implicate Farael (but not strongly, as he had already pledged to vote for him).

Any thoughts?

Overall, I think that Day 1 went as well as expected (in circumstances where it looks like the True Seer may have dreamed of one if us). All of our votes were well placed, and are likely to attract little suspicion. None were safe but, as it turns out, none were decisive either. I would have preferred someone other than Gil-Galad to have been lynched, but he was bound to go sooner or later.

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

Thanks to SPM for pointing out the possible Seerishness of Tar-Ancalime. I had thought her vote for Eomer a random one and the possibility that she was a Seer had not occurred to me. Having said that, I am still tend to think Farael much more likely to be the Seer. For while one could easily explain Tar's vote as a random guess (her suspicion of Spawn having been allayed for whatever reason), I can't come up with any explanation for Farael's behaviour save Seerhood. I was serious when I said that I would suspect him of being the Cobbler if there were one in this village. Of course, there's always the outside chance that one of those two is a lucky true Seer and the other an incredibly lucky false Seer.

I suppose the really gutsy thing to do would be to attack Farael tonight, hoping that 1. the Ranger isn't protecting him and 2. maybe he's not the Seer. But I'm not all that happy about our odds on item 1 and I'm downright morose about our odds on item 2. The trouble is, of course, that if he is the Seer, the longer he's left alive the more trouble he'll be when he finally does get killed.

No need to be sorry. Actually, I don't think there is much suspicion of me aside from Farael; just the occasional "let's keep an eye on him". Largely because I encouraged the Seer discussion, I suppose - which I think did effectively generate some confusion and steer the discussion into useless channels.

As for other candidates for toNight's meal (I am a cook, werewolf or not, mind you), the people I'd definitely not go for are:

Glirdan, Lhuna, Mormegil, Kath, Celuien - all voted for Gil-Galad and will undoubtedly be looked at tomorrow.

Formendacil, Garin, LMP - all voted for Boromir.

The two candidates that look best to me right now are Holbytlass and Nilpaurion Felagund, both of whom are so far completely unsuspected.

So I'd say the first thing to do is to decide whether or not to go after Farael toNight (the more likely True Seer in my opinion). And if not, then either Holbytlass or Nilpaurion will make a fine meal.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

I am still inclined to view tar-ancalime as a possible Seer. The only reasoning that she gave for dropping her suspicion of dancing spawn was that she had initially been “gathering thoughts”. The commentary on dancing spawn’s analysis seemed much too detailed to me to simply represent the gathering of thoughts.

Nevertheless, I do not think that we should kill tar. For the same reason that she looks Seerish to me, she will look suspicious to the other villagers. She is a definite possibility for lynching tomorrow, and we (or at least one of us) should consider encouraging that. Aiwendil, you are best placed to do so, given that you voted for her, although we all voiced suspicions.

Another possibility is that she and dancing spawn are the Hunter and Ranger and tar’s post was intended to distance them. Dancing spawn later stuck up for her a bit. Eomer, you mentioned during the Day the possibility of them being linked (albeit to suggest that they might be Wolves), and it’s definitely something to bear in mind.

Now, what to do about Farael?

The advantage of killing him tonight is that, if he is the Seer, we will prevent him communicating any information that he may have gained through his dream tonight. What are the chances of him dreaming of another Wolf? Well, I think that I am a possible target for his dream. But there are many who are under more suspicion than Eomer and me, following the events of Day 1, so I would say that the likelihood is that the Seer will dream of one of them.

The disadvantage of killing Farael tonight is that, if he is the Seer, then Aiwendil is almost certainly toast tomorrow. I would prefer not to lose one of our number so early in the game, if we can avoid it.

On balance, therefore, I think that we should let Farael live another Day. If things go badly for Aiwendil (and I have no reason to think that they will), one of us can pile in and try to gain some credit from his lynching and then we kill Farael tomorrow night. We will just have to act as we see fit at the time. Aiwendil, you have said that you are prepared to be sacrificed if necessary, and I thank you for that. The same goes for me. But I don’t think that we should be looking to sacrifice any of our number unless absolutely necessary.

As matters stand, I will probably continue to pursue my stated suspicions of Lhuna, tar-ancalime and Celuin. I intend questioning the sudden rush of votes for Boromir88, and will probably voice suspicions of Garin, littlemanpoet, and possibly Formendacil, based on that. Anguirel looks less suspicious because his vote for Boro was the first. I may also throw a little suspicion Kath’s way too. Although much will depend on what people say tomorrow.

Finally, who to kill? Aiwendil has suggested Nilp or Holby. I would pefer to keep Nilp alive for now as I have swapped “I am innocent” messages with him by anagram and I think it likely that he will trust me and view me as innocent.

In conclusion, therefore, I would be in favour of killing off Holby. She was suspected by no one, and is unlikely to come under much suspicion tomorrow. She voiced mild suspicion of Lhuna and voted for tar, so that could help in ramping up the suspicion towards those two. If nothing else, it will provoke the usual “frame up?”, “double bluff?” type discussions. There is nothing to connect her with any of us, or indeed, most of the village, which is a good thing. With a bit of luck, she may even turn out to be a Gifted.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Hallo, comrades.

That was probably one of the more interesting Day Ones ever.

Aiwendil, I thought you played Farael perfectly. To most villagers I have no doubt that you're coming across as perfectly exasperated and 'Well, what can I say to you?' to Farael. His attack on you was extremely strange indeed. If a Seer, he doesn't know that he's true or false, so why does he make such a blistering attack on you? I can't tell for sure, but I think leaving him alive is certainly a risk worth taking. There's a slight chance that he's guarded, and a much bigger chance that a dead Farael tomorrow morning means dead Aiwendil tomorrow night. He could be the True Seer, but I think leaving him alive is the right thing to do (especially with the false Seer kicking about). I don't think it's wholly unlikely that he's just a misguided villager. But let us watch him very closely.

Interesting thoughts on who to kill. I'd certainly go along with Holbytlass as a good option. I suspect that Mormegil may be gifted: he was quieter than usual this Day One.

SPM, so that's what that odd exchange with Nilp was about! (I'm very slow on the uptake with such things.) Kudos!

I think we played Day One well; and there are plenty of suspicious characters lurking in this village. So things are looking quite good.

Holbytlass seems a good choice to me.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

I know what you mean about mormegil, Eomer. I will be keeping an eye on him, but I don’t think that we should kill him just yet as he is likely to come under some suspicion tomorrow. If, for example, he is the Hunter or Ranger, we might be able to spot his companion trying to protect him.

What is your view on tar’s sudden vote for you, Eomer?

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

Okay, Holbytlass it shall be.

As for our Day 2 strategy:

I had been hoping that I could more or less align myself with LMP, as he's one of the most vocal and intelligent Villagers. But after his vote for Boromir yesterday, I'm inclined to start voicing some real suspicion of him tomorrow. Also of Formendacil and Garin. I'll probably list my top suspects as Form, Garin, and Tar - Form and Garin for their votes against Boromir; Tar for the same reasons as yesterDay. But I'm inclined to back off a little from Tar since her vote looked rather random and not malicious.

I would say that perhaps one or both of you should put more emphasis on the Gil-Galad-voting crowd than on the Boromir-voting crowd, to try to minimize any apparent relation among us. It might be a good idea to suggest that there was a "wolvish scheme" in operation yesterDay to cause the lynching of Gil, an easy first day victim.

Of course, something similar goes for Tar-Ancalime.

I agree that Morm has been unusually quiet. Perhaps gifted. Not sure what to do about it, though. Perhaps best would be to try to keep his name coming up without accusing him too strongly - see if we can foment some suspicion of him.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

I agree with your proposed strategy, Aiwendil.

I shall lay off the Boromir88 voters to an extent and focus instead on the Gil-Galad voters. I propose maintaining my stance that Glirdan’s early vote looks too risky to have been a Wolf's vote and it will be difficult to make much of a case against Boro, as he was forced into his vote, so I shall concentrate on mormegil, Kath and Celuin. As I said, I shall also revisit my Day 1 suspicions of Lhuna and tar. I might lay off elempi a bit – depends how I feel.

Originally Posted by Eomer

SPM, how did I feel when tar-ancalime chose me? I cannot lie: it made me take a deep breath! I'm very hopeful that it was truly random, though. It's likely that she will lay off me today. If she finds new ways of attacking me then rest assured I will know that my days could be numbered.

Anyway, I like your proposed strategies for Day Two. I will find it hard to get on the internet for a while after Days start and a little while before they end. This could help me remain at least slightly inconspicuous as long as I make a fair number of posts around the middle of the day.

I'm going to maintain slight suspicion of the tar-spawn alliance and the sneaky Mormegil, but my main target (though I won't go overboard) will remain Lhuna.

Good luck!