[Aiwendil]

Night 3

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

Fellow canines -

Well, with two rather intense DAYS of discussion done with, I think we are in pretty good shape.

First of all, we've had far more luck than we've any right to. I refer, of course, to Holbytlass.

There seems to have been a sudden tendency to suspect me toward the end of the DAY. Farael's arguments still seem pretty weak to me. He really is taking what I say out of context and misconstruing me. Form is more worrisome, though he does admit that his suspicion is probably due to my attacks on him. If I can justify those attacks on DAY 3, I think he may ease up on me, or at least take me out of the prime suspect slot. LMP suddenly suspects me at the end of the DAY, after having said earlier that I looked innocent. I think that this can probably be played against him as a move rather similar to his sudden attack on Boromir on DAY 1. I'm in a decent position to make that accusation, considering my suspicion of the Boromir-voting crowd so far. SPM is also in a decent position to plant that idea, given his vote for LMP, but it might be risky for him to come to my defense.

It has occurred to me - and this idea may sound silly - that we might benefit from a code word or two. The particular thought I had went like this. At the moment, it's hard to guess whether I (or perhaps Eomer) will be a serious candidate for lynching tomorrow. We won't know until some way into DAY 3. This makes it hard for us to plan a wolf sacrifice, since we won't know until sometime during the DAY whether such a sacrifice is called for. It would be helpful, then, if I had some way of saying, during the DAY, "Okay, it looks like I'm done for, go ahead and accuse/vote for me" or "I think I can pull out of this; don't add to the fire". So it might be useful to come up with a word - one uncommon enough that we wouldn't use it accidentally, but not so outlandish as to raise eyebrows - as a signal for one of those messages.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

To my fellow Wolves, greetings

A day of mixed fortunes. It started off excellently, obviously. Holby being the Seer was an amazing stroke of luck and one that I did not expect. The first half of the Day went well enough with the vocal squad (mormegil, lmp, Boro, Anguirel and others) all getting mired down in suspecting each other. However, it was somewhat soured towards the end with the increasingly voiced suspicions of Aiwendil and, to a lesser degree, Eomer.

And what a noisy village! I was quite busy at work today and really had little chance to catch up until near the end of the day.

I currently plan on going pretty strongly against lmp tomorrow. He looks rather suspicious right now and there may just be enough votes there to get him lynched. I also think that there is a chance that he's a Gifted (Ranger/Hunter). I'll probably keep up my "lmp guilty = mormegil innocent" and vice versa ruse. There is a good case to be made against mormegil on his voting record.

As for possible kills, I am considering the following possibilities:

Nilpaurion Felagund - Pros: Not suspected by anyone; I have declared him all but innocent; looks bad for Anguirel and a few others (including Garin and lmp); he doesn't suspect any of us. Cons: I think that he will continue to view me as innocent; a potential lmp voter.

Tar-ancalime - Pros: Could look bad for Garin and lmp; possible False Seer (Day 1 vote for Eomer). Cons: Aiwendil suspected her.

Farael - Pros: He's a pain in the butt ( ); no one seems to suspect him. Cons: Probably not Gifted; could look bad for Aiwendil (but could be viewed as a frame up); would stymie my tenative Day 3 strategy.

Anguirel - Pros: He's an astute guy, could be a Ranger/Hunter (with Celuin or Glirdan, both of whom he has defended). Cons: He seems to believe in my innocence (but that could change); his vote for Lhuna looks suspicious.

Kath - Pros: Leaves hardly any trail; suspicion in her did not materialise (and probably won't to any great degree tomorrow); she's unlikely to whip up much suspicion of our foes. Cons: She is unlikely to be Gifted - otherwise I'm sure that she would be contributing more.

Boromir88 - Pros: Makes Garin and the other Day 1 Boro voters look bad; he could be dangerous. Cons: he seems to be on my side - for now; could look bad for Aiwendil.

On balance, I think that we should go for Kath, even though she is unlikely to turn out Gifted. The way things have been going, we want to keep as many vocal villagers alive as possible, because they are eminently capable of turning (or being turned) on each other and it gives us a bit of cover (being fairly vocal ourselves).

Are we allowed to do that? If so, any suggestions. Maybe a common Werewolf-type phrase, but none of us would use it unless we thought we were in serious danger of being lynched? The sort of thing someone might say when under severe pressure?

One thing, though. We haven't had much opportunity to cast Wolf-on-Wolf votes yet. And I think that we should continue to avoid them unless we are going for a Wolf sacrifice. A safe (ie non-sacrifical) Wolf-on-Wolf vote will probably end up looking rather obvious as and when one of those involved is lynched and found to be a Wolf. Most players are pretty alive to that sort of thing now, as it has become a regular part of the Werewolves's strategy. In fact, it will probably be expected. So I think that we should avoid it.

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

I'm going to go through the villagers one by one with thoughts on them, particularly with respect to whether they would make good candidates for tonight.

Farael: His death would result in all the usual frame-up/double bluff discussion. But I think he may actually be of more use alive. His attacks are flimsy and they give me a chance to come off as an exasperated innocent.

Mormegil: He hasn't come under serious suspicion yet. Possible interesting repurcussions for the others who, like him, voted for Lhuna. But as SPM said before DAY 1, it's probably a good idea to let some of the other "loudmouths" survive for a while (though he has been quieter this game).

Dancing Spawn: Her death would have repurcussions for Eomer not unlike those for me if Farael were killed. Probably not worth it at this point.

Glirdan: A possibility for tonight. There was some suspicion of him earlier, but it seems to have died off. The one complication is his vote for Lhunardawen, which might - 1. bring suspicion on him tomorrow; 2. have people looking for some kind of bluff with regard to the other Lhuna-voters, including Eomer.

Nilpaurion: Another possibility, though I expect he still trusts SPM based on the anagrams. His faith in them may have lessened since Mormegil and I followed suit, though. His votes were for Farael and Anguirel, so I don't think any of us would be implicated by his death.

Tar-ancalime: She voted for Garin today, meaning that she may fall under some suspicion tomorrow. Also, killing her would only bring more attention to the other Garin-voters, including me.

Formendacil: His name has come up a few times but it looks unlikely that he'll be lynched. Comments about Mormegil regarding respected loudmouths apply to him as well, to some extent. I would consider him a strong candidate if not for his vote for me, which leads into the frame-up/double bluff discussion.

LMP: Definitely keep him alive. I think that a good case can be made against him tomorrow. Plus, his defensive rants are quite amusing.

Kath: An interesting one. She's come under just about no suspicion so far and didn't even vote today - which would seem to make her an ideal candidate. But the fact that she has been so quiet and almost entirely absent from DAY 2 may make her a suspect tomorrow.

Anguirel: Another Lhuna-voter. He doesn't seem likely to be lynched any time soon, but he may come under heavier attack tomorrow.

Garin: Keep him alive. There's still a fair amount of suspicion of him. Plus, I voted for him.

Celuien: Under some suspicion; doesn't appear to be onto us. Keep her alive.

Boromir88: Could be useful as an instrument to wield against LMP tomorrow. And there's also still a decent amount of suspicion of him.

So to me, the best candidates for toNIGHT look to be Kath, Glirdan, and Nilpaurion.

It occurs to me that we might try the following. SPM could say that I look like I'm playing my normal game and perhaps find fault in Farael's logic. This looks like a good move since it does seem fairly natural. I do think that I'm playing something like my normal game (whatever that might mean, considering I've only once survived longer than a day); and Farael's attacks are indeed flimsy. While appreciating your vote of confidence, I would then make a speculative case against you - along the lines of "It seems to me that one person has so far managed to avoid close scrutiny - SPM. Could he be a very clever wolf?" And so forth.

The advantage here would be that we each get to move beyond the safe "I'm keeping an eye on him" but we do so in a way that runs the least risk of getting one of us killed. We'd both be going against the grain, so to speak - you speaking in favor of my innocence while I'm under suspicion and me speaking against you at a time when that suspicion is unlikely to ignite anything serious.

As for Eomer - I think that it will work to our advantage that you have been a bit quieter than both of us. It's easier to avoid taking a clear-cut position with regard to you. If you do start to come under scrutiny tomorrow, I expect I'll avoid saying much about you yourself but rather warn that "there are others who are much more suspicious".

It hadn't occurred to me that we might not be. I don't see why we wouldn't; it seems to me to be rather in the spirit of the game. But if either of you think it might not be wholly legit, then we can forget it.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

I am pretty much set on this course of action now. If I have time, I am going to do a few analyses, focussing on those who attracted more than one vote yesterday. This will enable me to look more closely at lmp and to develop my opinion on you. I am confident that, when I go through your posts, I will be able to end up saying that there is very little there that looks suspicious. That will also enable me to examine Farael’s case in more detail, and it should be easy to pick holes in that. I do think that there is scope to bring Farael into the spotlight tomorrow. His focussing on just one villager can be made to look very Wolfish.

While I am loathe to risk tainting my almost spotless record so far ( ), I think that others will be taking a similar look at me tomorrow. So it would be natural for you to do so. Please feel free to make the usual accusation that I might be manipulating village opinion against innocents. I have a standard response to that.

As for my approach to Eomer, I will play it by ear. Your relative quietness has worked well so far, as it is difficult to say much about you. I may try the tack of challenging one or two of your statements if anything occurs to me, provided that you are OK with that.

Possible Gifteds

The following are possible hints that I picked up on:

As I mentioned before, Anguirel defended Celuin and Glirdan quite early on, when there wasn’t much to go on (#52 and #45).

Celuin has defended Farael two days running (#75 and #163).

Garin’s “Only a fool would vote to lynch me” (#137) could be a bluff or he could be the False Seer. He has seems to be quite preoccupied with the False Seer role.

At the end of his delightful rant (#135), littlemanpoet responded to morm’s:

with:

A possible hint by lmp that he’s a Gifted? If so, it’s very subtle.

I think that he will start to come under serious scrutiny tomorrow, given his Lhuna vote. We need to keep a pool of respected “loudmouths” alive for a while to deflect suspicion of us for still being alive. I also like the “littlemanpoet – mormegil” tension since, if one gets lynched, I am sure the other can be portrayed as very Wolfish.

Agreed, although we need to try to encourage a bit more suspicion of her. I might look into doing this as I traditionally suspect dancing spawn when she looks innocent – it goes back to the game that I modded, where she was an excellent and almost entirely unsuspected Wolf. Eomer is in a position to brief against her too, as long as it doesn’t look too much like a reaction against her vote for him.

His votes are explicable by reference to his real life commitments and I genuinely think they look like unlikely Wolf votes, so I doubt that he will come under much suspicion. The Lhuna voters are bound to be under scrutiny tomorrow, so I am not sure that killing Glirdan would make much difference on that score. I would like to reduce my “possible innocent” list, so a definite possibility.

Yes, I think that he will still trust me. Towards the end of the day, however, I said that I was pretty certain of Nilp’s innocence. His death might therefore be construed as a Wolfish SpM’s attempt to make himself look innocent. Also, he’s a potential lmp voter (and he votes early). I would prefer not to kill Nilp.

My initial preferred choice. However, on further consideration, I am not so sure. Holby was quiet. Kath is very quiet. If we kill all the quiet ones, it points to some noisy Wolves.

I actually think that Anguirel may be a good candidate for tonight’s repast. The longer he says alive, the more likely I think he is to spot one of us. There’s not much to link him with any of us and he is a possible (and dangerous) Gifted.

I am sorely tempted to kill him. But I agree that he is too valuable for now as a potential weapon against lmp.

I would suggest keeping Kath and Nilp alive for now, but would add Anguirel to the list.

Glirdan is very tempting because, as I said, I would like to reduce my “probable innocent” list before adding Aiwendil to it. Glirdan is, however, a potential lmp voter. So far, he has always voted early for the person looking most suspicious at the beginning of the day. That said, as it’s a Saturday, he may be able to vote later on day 3.

I wonder whether the better choice might be Anguirel because he is a respected and experienced player and his death makes it look a little less suspicious that the three of us are still around. At the same time, we still have enough other experienced “loudmouths” for cover. If he’s the Hunter, now would be a good time to kill him.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Greetings comrades!

Holby the Seer, ho ho ho....

Anyway, my pick for tonight's attack was Nilpaurion Felagund, because no-one suspects him (he's also not trying to get lynched—is that in any way weird? Maybe he's a gifted...) however SPM gives good reasons to keep him alive: Nilp and SPM have established a little friendship, and any response SPM makes to Nilp's death could look a bit suspicious—SPM will be linked somehow, someway.

I would prefer to keep Kath alive: I think her quietness is more severe than Holbytlass's, and I think it can definitely be used against her.

An attack on Glirdan would be fine by me. I would have no problems in taking out either Anguirel or Formendacil either. Farael, Dancing Spawn, LMP, Boromir, Mormegil, should all stay definitely.

As to Dancing Spawn's critique of me, I was nervous that I defended myself a bit too vigourously. I will certainly not start a fight with her today; but I will meet her challenge. My defence would have been identical had I been innocent: I don't think the case against me is strong at all.

SPM, perhaps it would be a good idea if you put a bit of suspicion on me. I would urge you to pretty much regurgitate what Spawn said about me, because I have pretty convincing answers to everything she said. On the end of Day 3 you could say something about me like 'Spawn could be right: maybe there is more to Eomer than meets the eye; but I think there are other characters worthy of more suspicion in this village.'

I would be against a wolf-sacrifice, and this is why. There is already suspicion against me and Aiwendil. If SPM were to jump in now with a vote for, say, Aiwendil and Aiwendil is hanged and found to be guilty, that would by no means grant SPM immunity. The village would be kinder to Farael and Morm (I think) because they got there first. Also, the wolf-sacrifice is well-known now. Back in the days of Werewolf VII, when a certain victorious wolf ruthlessly sacrificed his fellows Kitanna and Orominuialwen it was new and shocking; but folks are wise to it now; and when (if) the first wolf dies, we should use this fear and turn it against the innocent villager who discovered our identity (at this stage, likely candidates for this attack would be Farael or Spawn).

Another point about tonight's attack: I think Glirdan will be easier for us to manipulate than Anguirel or Formendacil. Should that count against killing him?

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

I am now rather regretting my little comment towards the end of the day concerning my belief in his [Nilp's] innocence. His death tonight might look good for me if he is the Hunter or the Ranger. But I tend to think him an Ord, as his anagram declares.

I think that it might. Glirdan can be quite the flip-flopper, while Anguirel is a more difficult proposition.

Aiwendil, any objection to taking out Anguirel?

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

I agree with Eomer that Anguirel is probably a better target for toNIGHT than Glirdan. I'll PM Shemod as well later.

About wolf sacrifices: I agree that they're probably not of much use to us now. I don't think that they've completely lost their power since the exploits of you famous ancestor, though, Eomer. In particular, I recall that in Alcarillo's game, wolvish Formendacil got a free pass for just about the entire game after his early vote for fellow wolf Spawn. Seems to me the key is that the sacrificial vote must appear decisive. But, anyway, I agree that it's probably not worth considering a sacrifice at this point.

Well, that's about it, I guess. If I don't PM again before DAYbreak, good luck to us!

Originally Posted by Eomer

I have what I believe is a good case against Spawn. Basically, I will argue that she is suspecting me (and voted for me, no less) on such-and-such grounds: grounds that she herself is treading. She's doing pretty much what she's angry that I'm doing. So I'm not going to attack her strongly, but I will certainly meet her challenge and trust that the other innocents will flock to my banner.

So SPM, you must post some suspicion against me in the first half of the day. I will only be able to get onto the internet about early afternoon tomorrow. At that time I hope to see another post by Spawn against me, and one from you saying that Spawn has made good points. Then I will come in, destroy (hopefully!) Spawn's argument, question her motives, then you will be left with no option but to admit that my response was a good 'un. Again, along the lines of 'Eomer still looks pretty suspicious, but my attention is given to others right now.' And talk about LMP again, probably.

Aiwendil, I'm hoping to get a little bit of response to my Farael question. Hopefully, we can drum up some support for you against Farael. I don't think it would hurt to say that he's hiding in his own boldness and stubbornness.