[Aiwendil]

Night 5

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

The good news is that suspicion of me has dwindled and you remain in excellent shape. Also, I think the groundwork has been laid for Tar to be lynched tomorrow, and maybe Farael after that. I think, if I may say so, that I played up the idea of a Tar-Eomer connection effectively. At any rate, Mormegil has certainly bought it and Boromir may have as well. Indeed, Mormegil agreed with my suggestion that the trio is Eomer, Tar, and Farael.

Farael will no doubt take Eomer's guilt as evidence that I'm a wolf, and will point out my defense of him tomorrow. But at this point, I don't expect that many will buy it. Despite my vote for Tar, I did make a pretty strong point toDAY of claiming that I thought both Tar and Eomer were wolves. I think I can use this to counter any charges that I was trying to save Eomer.

I am rather unsure about whom to kill toNIGHT. Earlier, I was rather inclined to kill either Boromir, Mormegil, or Formendacil. My reasoning was that 1. I think it's likely that either Boromir or mormegil (or both) is Gifted; 2. YesterDAY it looked like Formendacil and Boromir might fall in line with Farael and go after me; 3. Formendacil is a known innocent.

However, those options look less and less appealing to me. I'm no longer in imminent danger of being lynched (I think), so taking out Form or Boromir probably isn't as worthwhile. And since Boromir and Mormegil seem to be highly suspicious of Tar, they could be useful tomorrow. Also, I suppose the Ranger will protect Formendacil toNIGHT.

I guess the real choice is which group to choose someone from: Boromir, Mormegil, Formendacil or Kath, Celuien, Glirdan, Nilpaurion. Do we try to kill a Gifted and risk damaging the case against Tar and Farael, or do we play it safe?

I imagine that if either Mormegil or Boromir is the Hunter, there's a good chance we could take out two innocents in one stroke toNIGHT.

Originally Posted by The Wolfman Sauce

My surviving comrade

I think that we are both in great shape. Me, obviously, for my vote for Eomer and the fact that (astoundingly to me) most people still seem inclined to trust me. And you are looking a lot better than you were a day ago. I think that you can pass off your vote for tar as you were not the only one to vote for her and she remains under suspicion. You did a great job of linking her with Eomer, and that idea was reinforced in subsequent posts. The danger for you will arise as and when tar is lynched and found to be innocent. Farael will continue to be a thorn in your side, and will no doubt bring up your defence of Eomer tomorrow, but he backed off from his accusations of you considerably towards the end of the day. And it looks like he is going to be under a lot of suspicion tomorrow, anyway.

So, who to kill? Or, perhaps it is better to consider first who not to kill.

Obviously, we do not want to kill tar. And I think that we should leave Formendacil alone too. The Ranger may not protect him tonight (thinking that we would assume him to be protected), but I think that he or she is more likely to do so than not. Others who will come under suspicion tomorrow are Farael (for his erratic behaviour and for his no vote), Kath (for her tar vote and for her quietness) and Glirdan (for not turning up and for not voting). So I think that we should leave all of them alone.

Which leaves Celuien, Nilp, Boromir and mormegil.

Celuien: She looks like she was duped by Eomer into voting for tar yesterday. But that could be made to look like Wolfish interplay. She is quiet and non-committal, which can be made to look suspicious. And she is, I think, relatively trusting of the two of us.

Nilp: Voted first for Eomer, and so is likely to be thought innocent. However, I think that makes me look good for trusting him. And I think that he will continue to trust me in return. He also said that, if Eomer turned out to be a Wolf, Boro would look bad. Although Boro voted for Eomer, Nilp could view that as a Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Boromir88: A possible choice for tonight's kill. I have said that I think him innocent, so the proof of that may reflect in my favour. However, he may come under suspicion tomorrow. There is Nilp's comment about the consequences of Eomer being a Wolf, and tar voted for him. It is quite possible that his vote for Eomer will be seen as a Wolf sacrifice, given that he said earlier that he was going to vote for tar (I will not be bringing that up though, as it may lead people to look at my vote).

Mormegil: Tentatively, my choice for our kill tonight. After his pursuit of Eomer, he is likely to be thought innocent. Also, I actually think that his death may heighten suspicion of tar and Farael, as people have seen that the Wolves are prepared to double-bluff with their kills. Some may say that the Wolves would not attmept it two nights running, but that in some ways makes it look even more Wolfish (ie the Wolves can be portrayed as banking on the villagers thinking that). However, my main reason for wanting to kill mormegil is this:

Is that a Hunter hint? Why would mormegil hint at being the Hunter? Quite possibly because he thinks that he has identified the other two Werewolves, and he doesn't think that they will dare kill him. If he is the Hunter, the Ranger won't protect him, obviously. And if he is genuine in his suspicions of Farael and tar, we have the opportunity, as you say, of taking out two innocents in one night. Moreover, if mormegil is the Hunter, we may well be able to work out from what he has said, and from what others have said about him, who the Ranger is.

My only reservation, if he is the Hunter, is that he is bluffing with his stated suspects. Even if he is, he will most likely take out another innocent. I really don't think that he suspects me, especially after my Eomer vote, so the only danger is that he secretly suspects you and will target you tonight.

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

I'm certainly leaning toward killing either Mormegil or Boromir toNIGHT. I have a feeling that one or both of them is Gifted - though I'm not entirely sure what gives me that impression.

The drawback I see to killing one of them is that we would probably be eliminating our own supporters in the case against tar and Farael. Still, it would be worth it if we could take out a Gifted. I tend to agree with you, then, that it should be Mormegil (who will looks less suspicious than Boromir tomorrow).

Before we finalize it, though, I'm going to have a look through both Boromir's and Mormegil's posts for possible hints.

Originally Posted by The Wolfpan Man

My fiendish friend

I have done the same, as four pairs of Wolfish eyes are better than two. I came up with the following:

Morm quotes:
While I possess great physical prowess and dexterity it's my mind that has won me many a battle. I am able to out think my opponent and that, my friends, will be your greatest asset ... (#11)
So I made a preemptive strike. (#169)
Anyway, notice in this post how Garin begins to attack LMP but backs off and twists it to continue his assault on Boromir, who as many others feel seems more or less innocent. (#260)
Those are the three that are lycans and deserve death and yes Gandalf I can give it to them. (#388)

Boro quotes:
Note that most of his posts bear the White Tree symbol.
mormegil: seems pretty innocent. I'll wait for him to conjure up a rediculous plan before I tell him how wrong it is and start suspecting him for getting us distracted with such ludicrous ideas. (#113)
lmp, I almost want to say lynch me so people see behind your twisted words, but no that wouldn't work well. (#138)
But, morm has backed down from his suspicions now after hearing lmp, so I don't think him that suspicious as the other two I will mention. (#164)
Mormegil I'm still unsure about, and because of that I don't want to rashly lynch him yet, especially since he's good to have around. (#164)

They have hardly accused each other, and, when they have done so, it has been in the mildest terms. Also, they often seem to be posting at the same time (which might mean nothing as I believe that they are in the same, or a similar, time zone, but it could have been arranged during daytime PM'ing).

I feel relatively confident now that we have found our remaining Gifteds and that morm is the Hunter, while Boro is the Ranger. Of the two, I think that we should kill morm tonight, while his suspicions are (seemingly) diverted towards tar and Farael. We may not get another chance. If morm is the Hunter, then Boro would seem a good choice for the following night. Form, we can afford to leave in the village for a while, if we have an opportunity to kill the useful Gifteds in the meantime.

Originally Posted by Sauce, the over-analytical wolf

A thought just occurred to me.

Assume that morm is the Hunter and Boro is the Ranger. They can PM each other during the day. What if they agreed that mormegil would outline clear suspicions at the end of the day and drop a heavy Hunter hint at the same time, and that Boro would protect him that night? He would lose his Hunter ability for the Night, yes. But, if he survives and no one else is killed, then he and Boro will have a strong indication that neither of morm’s stated suspects are Wolves since, if they were and they took the hint, they would not dare attack him. On the other hand, if someone else dies, then Farael and tar will be looking very Wolfish to him.

On reflection, therefore, I wonder whether we should kill Boro. He is looking innocent to many of the villagers right now, and I have expressed my belief in his innocence, so he is not a bad target even if he is not the Ranger. And, if I am right in my speculations above, then it is quite possible that morm will declare himself as the Hunter tomorrow and go strongly against tar and Farael.

Originally Posted by Ngaurondil

That's an intersting theory. I certainly wouldn't put something like that past Mormegil.

But - suppose it's like you say, and we kill Boromir toNIGHT. Tomorrow, we lynch Tar. She's revealed to be innocent. So tomorrow NIGHT, Mormegil knows that his suspicions were off and re-considers whom to hunt.

In other words, it seems to me that once Tar is dead, Mormegil, if he's the Hunter, will become all the more dangerous.

Originally Posted by Lupine Sauce

I see the sense in what you are saying. We may not get another opportunity to safely kill him again. In that case, however, we may decide not to kill morm and go for Formendacil instead (particularly with the Ranger out of the way, if Boro is indeed the Ranger). A revealed morm is nothing but a known innocent if we decide not to go after him, which is exactly what Form is right now. We can then decide when best to kill him, or even leave him be if it looks like we can still win, even with a known innocent in the village.

I do prefer the Boro option because, even if he is not Gifted, his death does us little harm and, if anything, benefits us. And we have no guarantee that morm is the Hunter. If neither of them is Gifted, then I think the Ranger would be more likely to protect morm than Boro.

In addition, I think that morm is far more likely to be of assistance in getting tar or Farael lynched. Boro can be rather mercurial in his supicions, whereas morm falls more on the single-minded side.

Originally Posted by The Brown Wizard of Wolves

Yes, as I think about it, I become more and more inclined to kill Boromir. We may still be able to kill Mormegil tomorrow NIGHT; even if Tar is lynched and found innocent, I expect Mormegil will not immediately come around to suspecting me, and it's unlikely he would suspect you.