Quote:
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Originally Posted by Glirdy
I must ask you this: What makes you think that the Wolves will continue to systematically attack a female each Night??
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Well, the entire point of killing off the men is to get the Lovers. If the wolves kill a male, they simply make it easier for us to get rid of them. Then aid us.
Eomer: Sorry. I forgot my place for a moment.
Now, the impassioned plea.
If we are to adopt the double lynching scheme, it MUST be done TODAY. It cannot wait. Already there is a tiny chance - 6% - of failure if all the wolves are female. Waiting any longer to implement the plan means we will not have enough days to do so.
Not only does double-lynching men mean we will definitely catch the lovers, it also increases our chances of catching wolves, as
Eomer rightly said.
Observe:
We lynch one person today. It is random. They have a 4/18, that is a 22% chance of being a wolf.
We lynch two people. There is a 14/18 x 13/17 chance of their being an innocent; that is, a 40% chance of being a wolf.
These are random chances, not real chances. In real life the wolves influence us, and lead us astray, a problem with four of them. By limiting who we vote for to the male gender, we reduce the randomness of the votes and minimise the wolvish influence, so that in real terms, the chance of catching a wolf is significantly higher.
Not to mention a 25% chance of grabbing the lovers today, or a 50% chance over two days.
I will reiterate, this is the FINAL day that this is realistically possible. It makes sense to accept it, as hard as it may seem, men. Embrace your suicidal tendencies for the greater good.