[Gurthang]

Okay, bear with me on this, because this is going to be long. Seeing as most of our suspects (all five of them) have been killed in the last two days, I've decided to do my own analysis of everyone by using... unconventional methods. Well, maybe not so much unconventional as not often used. After each part, I'll list who I find innocent and who I find suspicious from each part. If I'm undecided on any person, then they won't be in either list. Anyway, I hope I can make sense of it when I'm done. (Oh, and keep in mind that I typed most of this up during the Night.)


Part 1: Gut Instinct

Laugh all you want, but I've found that my gut can sometimes be more trustworthy than my brain. So, I thought I'd give my gut some say and here's what it says:

Feels innocent:
Cailín
Formendacil
SamwiseGamgee

Feels suspicious:
Caranlondien
Naria
Valier
LMP


Part 2: Day 3 Voting

Here's the facts(courtesy of TGWBS's post):
Known innocents in italics; known enemies in bold.

1. Thinlomien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
2. TGWBS --> Farael (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1)
3. Formendacil --> Kath (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
4. Eomer --> Lhuna (Lhuna 2 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
5. Lalaith --> Lhuna (Lhuna 3 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
6. Samwise --> Lhuna (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
7. Celuien --> Kath (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
8. Kath --> Lhuna (Lhuna 5 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
9. Caranlondien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
10. Tar-Ancalime --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 3)
11. Glirdan --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
12. LMP --> Lhuna (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
13. Farael --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 5)
14. Valier --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 6)
15. Naria --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 7)
16. Cailín --> No one (Lhuna 7 - Farael 1 - Kath 7)
16. Lhuna --> Kath (Lhuna 7, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)
17. Gurthang -> Lhuna (Lhuna 8, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)

Okay, to me, it would seem logical that the wolves, being the (presumably) intelligent evil beings that they are, would see that there was a lot of suspicion for Lhuna going into the Day. Knowing this, and maybe even thinking she was the female lover, they would probably turn on her. Meaning that the other wolves probably voted for Lhuna. On the other hand, I sincerely doubt that they would put Kath on the platform. It would be to easy for the wolves to just bandwagon onto Lhuna, rather than make the unnecessary sacrifice of voting for another wolf. This also makes LMP's vote look questionable, because, if we wanted to double lynch, then we would need to keep the votes close, and he tried to make the gap wider when we really needed some votes for Kath.

So, from the voting on Day 3:

Looks innocent:
Formendacil
tar-ancalime
Valier
Naria
Cailín


Looks suspicious:
LMP
Thin
Lalaith
SamwiseGamgee
Caranlondien
Gurthang
(I know I'm innocent, but you guys don't, so my name will stay.)


Part 3: First Day Mentionings

I would think that, especially on the first Day, that wolves would avoid either accusing or defending each other directly. I just think they'd avoid mentioning each other at all. So, here are what we know about who named who on the first day. (I will list only those who are still alive.)

Mentioned Lhuna or Kath
Cailín
LMP
Gurthang
Formendacil
Thin (Only to state crossposting)

Mentioned by Lhuna or Kath
Lalaith
Naria

Did not mention or was not mentioned by Lhuna or Kath
Caranlondien
tar-ancalime
Valier
SamwiseGamgee

I believe that's right. I scanned through the first day thrice. Lhuna and Kath only had about 7 posts total between them, so there wasn't much there. I don't think I missed anyone talking about them, though. I also won't put someone in the 'looks innocent' category simply for having the word Lhuna or Kath in their post; it needs to be a decent mention. So, assuming my research to be correct:

Looks innocent:
Lalaith
Naria
Formendacil
LMP

Looks suspicious:
Caranlondien
tar-ancalime
Valier
SamwiseGamgee