So some (or most) of what I'm going to say has probably already been said, but I'm going through post by post and commenting on what I see fit.
1) Within the first ten posts Farael and Diamond had already started a war of words. For the most part playful in character comments (or so it seems) but it is possible the two are trying to make everyone think their enemies when they are really furry allies. Not much in the way of a theory, not for today in any case, but something to push to the back of your mind for a later day.
2) Eonwe goes into a normal day one post, "it's useless, it sucks, we all know it, my vote is random," etc. Morm comments on it. Eonwe elaborates/defends her standard first day post. Not a lot to go off of there.
3) Eonwe had commented on voting for player 7, which means Garin. Diamond comes back and says that's an interesting plan for the day and may do it herself. But in the same post she says she might vote Farael because he "cast a spurious light over my noble profession." Goes back to their first few posts. Says:
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Actually I do think Eonwe has a point... but somehow it seems kind of nasty to vote someone off randomly thus ending the game prematurely for them, for no discernable reason besides the belief that there can be no reasonable votes toDay. It'll be hard to come up with something, yeah, but we at least ought to try....
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Yet her reasons for wanting to vote for Farael seem no less random than her reasons for wanting to vote for Garin. Her reasons for Farael are because he made a remark about barmaid, so that is somewhat of a reason, but seems pretty random to me.
4) Roa comes on and believes Morm and Eonwe make very good points about what we can do today. Speaks against random voting unless all other options have failed. I’ll be interested to see where Roa’s vote goes today.
5) Farael casts a vote for Eonwe. He feels Eonwe is being suspicious on purpose to avoid suspicion (yes?). Because what intelligent player would speak as Eonwe did? Er, something like that, I won’t lie, has me a bit confused. Roa debunks Farael’s vote and says random voting is quite the common thing today. Farael comes back and mentions if he changes his mind we always have retractable votes. Alcarillo also comments on Farael’s “hasty” vote. Alcarillo feels he may vote for Farael. A few posts later, comes back and does just that.
6) At the end of the vote, Alcarillo apologizes to Farael if he is wrong and Farael calls him on it. It’s always suspicious to see someone apologize for a vote and somewhat annoying at times. But I wouldn’t jump on someone just yet for it. If the person they vote for is killed and turns out to be innocent, it bears looking into, but right now I won’t look too deep into Alcarillo’s apology.
7) Formendacil, ok, his first vote for himself, then immediately retracted and cast for Eonwe for no “particular reason”. He retracts his votes later, but I’ll talk about that when I get to it. Much to say on this fellow…
8) Lommy votes on a hunch about Nogrod. Can’t say much for either of them, both have been relatively quiet up to this point.
9) Morm comes back and questions Farael. Says
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You keep asking why isn't anybody looking at me? It's almost as if you are seeking to be suspicious...but why?... In my experience, the guilty party rarely expose themselves on day 1 and those that jump out to you as guilty rarely are and those you think innocent might be guilty.
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10) Telperaca votes for Eonwe on an in-character comment made by Eonwe near the start of day.
11) Sleepy votes for me out of randomness and says Garin is our protector.
12) Nogrod brings up Valier’s post in the planning thread and tries to figure out the meaning. I’m sure this will come back to get me later, but I’m not so sure looking into that is the best strategy. I mean if you get the hints wrong you can do way more harm than good. It could be misleading and I’d rather see us try solving this with our brains than with some unsure clues.
13) Sleepy now starts in on Valier’s post. Not much in the way of help. Roa and Sleepy go back and forth on occupations. Sleepy suspects roles and occupations to be linked and that Valier picked the roles based on occupation. Roa disagrees and I agree with Roa. If an occupation and a role go together I’d say it’s a coincidence.
14) There’s a lot of back and forth stuff in the next few posts. I’m going pretty slowly through this as it is so I can’t really comment, but the posts 49-65 are worth looking into, at least on how everyone was reacting to everyone else. Sleepy and Farael are the most interesting in that set.
15) Formendacil retracts yet another vote. This time he votes for Farael. Methinks Formendacil is not all that serious with his voting, which is why I hate retractable votes, but no reason to get into that. Lommy makes a good point about Formendacil going to whoever seems more likely to get a bandwagon, doesn’t make him look good. Formendacil then changes his vote to Lommy. With such behavior it makes me want to vote for him just to rid us of his flaky votes. Lommy changes her vote to Formendacil. Farael defends Formendacil saying he’ll be helpful tomorrow, but we can’t be totally sure. Formendacil may still be the same tomorrow and the next and so on. He’s a tricky one.
16) Garin votes for Sleepy. Doesn’t give much of a reason, but also outlines other suspects.
17) This is the post that gets me. Sleepy retracts his vote for me and says he “didn’t plan on sticking to my vote”, then why do that? I say if you don’t plan on keeping a vote for someone and you do it just to be random, and then don’t vote for them. You cause clutter, confusion, and waste time.
18) Farael changes his vote to Sleepy. Says Sleepy is as jumpy as himself. I’d say Sleepy is the jumpier one, but I wouldn’t go after someone because they’re jumping. I’m sure most of us are, we just haven’t shown it.
19) Roa votes for Morm.
Ok I need to stop and it’s annoying because I’m almost done reading the posts, but I really need to get to concert band. I also need to vote.
Formendacil and Sleepy have annoyed me a lot in this day, but on my principles I cannot vote for someone out of annoyance.
I don’t have real high suspicions of anyone. I have slight suspicions of Sleepy, Farael, and Diamond, but I’m not sure about voting for them.
I’m going to have to go for a random/gut vote here and I really hate to do that, but I don’t want to not vote. So here goes
++Sleepy
Sleepy’s behavior has me on edge. His defenses of himself seem reasonable, but I can’t shake the feeling he’s trying to lull us into trusting him and then he’ll kick us while we’ve got our guard down.
Edit: cross-posted with Diamond and Nogrod