The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

Diamond18 · 04-16-2006, 09:07 PM

The Short and Tragic Life of One Strangely Named Elf Who Was Too Smart for Her Own Good
Or, an Analysis of Spawn's Posts

I'm going to approach Spawn's posts with the assumption that the Orcs thought she was the Shaman, and that something in these posts made them extremely uneasy. There are alternative modes of thought, such as that the Orcs want us to analyize her posts with the mindset that they thought she was the Shaman. But I can only handle so many theories knocking about in my head at once.

Spawn's posts:

#31 - #34 - #44 - #140 - #158 - #166

In her first post, Spawn puts forth a very sensible argument that the dreamers should opt for sound arguments rather than obscure hinting. Any ordo could do this.

In her second post, Spawn names some names -- Diamond, Roa, Findëasëa, Sleepy Ranger The first two, she seems suspicious of. She brings up Findëasëa's newness and seems ready to be forgiving of it. To Sleepy she makes a vague comment that is mostly a reply. This makes Diamond and Roa seem the most suspicious in her view. Roa is the one she spends most time on.

In her third post, Spawn votes for Roa.

Result: Spawn's Day 1 posts cast the most suspicion on Roa.

On to Day 2:

Even if she was the Shaman, she would not have any special knowledge because her dream would have gone to Zali. But it's still worth taking a look at what she said.

In her fourth post, Spawn explains her reasons for the previous Day's posts. Knowing she was an Ordo, we can pretty much take her at her word when she said she was just posting things that had caught her attention. Making, in other words, sound arguments. But maybe you're an Orc reading this and think, "She's the Shaman and she dreamed of Roa and she knows Roa is an Orc."

First post, she goes over more names -- Azaelia, Findëasëa, Grendelien, Naria, Kitanna, and Legolas. She doesn't seem very suspicious of any of these people.

Third post, votes for Nogrod. She doesn't want to put Diamond in the lead for lynching. She doesn't mention Roa again.

Result: Day 2 eases some suspicion on Roa, because if you're thinking Spawn's the Shaman and knows Roa's dirty little secret, wouldn't you think she'd continue to go after Roa? Her vote for Nogrod would have to be based on her face value reasoning, because as the Shaman she wouldn't have gotten her own dream. So why would she abandone the guilty Roa and go after someone she couldn't know about? Maybe, as an Orc, you just assume that she's trying to protect herself and not seem too "Shamanlike" by continuing to go after Roa based on logic that has been called into question by Nogrod.

The combined Days posting makes me suspicious of Roa, depending on what the Orcs are thinking. It's entirely possible they saw how suspicious it would make Roa if they killed Spawn. On the same token, isn't it kind of stupid to kill someone who has boldly accused you? Roa's not stupid. And what does all this say about Nogrod? He seemed highly suspicious of Spawn's reasons for voting Roa. Would an Orc, worried about his fellow Orc being in the spotlight, seek to force her accuser into admitting being the Shaman? That seems unwise. Because you'd get your fellow Orc killed, even if you did then confirm who the Shaman was. Wouldn't it be more wise to carefully avoid addressing Spawn's comments in hopes that no one really notices ?

Okay, that's it for now. I'm disinclined to vote for Roa. I'm not sure what to think of Nogrod. I am going to look at Jenny's posts.

04-16-2006, 09:07 PM	#252
Diamond18 Eidolon of a Took Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: my own private fantasy world Posts: 3,460	The Short and Tragic Life of One Strangely Named Elf Who Was Too Smart for Her Own Good Or, an Analysis of Spawn's Posts I'm going to approach Spawn's posts with the assumption that the Orcs thought she was the Shaman, and that something in these posts made them extremely uneasy. There are alternative modes of thought, such as that the Orcs want us to analyize her posts with the mindset that they thought she was the Shaman. But I can only handle so many theories knocking about in my head at once. Spawn's posts: #31 - #34 - #44 - #140 - #158 - #166 In her first post, Spawn puts forth a very sensible argument that the dreamers should opt for sound arguments rather than obscure hinting. Any ordo could do this. In her second post, Spawn names some names -- Diamond, Roa, Findëasëa, Sleepy Ranger The first two, she seems suspicious of. She brings up Findëasëa's newness and seems ready to be forgiving of it. To Sleepy she makes a vague comment that is mostly a reply. This makes Diamond and Roa seem the most suspicious in her view. Roa is the one she spends most time on. In her third post, Spawn votes for Roa. Result: Spawn's Day 1 posts cast the most suspicion on Roa. On to Day 2: Even if she was the Shaman, she would not have any special knowledge because her dream would have gone to Zali. But it's still worth taking a look at what she said. In her fourth post, Spawn explains her reasons for the previous Day's posts. Knowing she was an Ordo, we can pretty much take her at her word when she said she was just posting things that had caught her attention. Making, in other words, sound arguments. But maybe you're an Orc reading this and think, "She's the Shaman and she dreamed of Roa and she knows Roa is an Orc." First post, she goes over more names -- Azaelia, Findëasëa, Grendelien, Naria, Kitanna, and Legolas. She doesn't seem very suspicious of any of these people. Third post, votes for Nogrod. She doesn't want to put Diamond in the lead for lynching. She doesn't mention Roa again. Result: Day 2 eases some suspicion on Roa, because if you're thinking Spawn's the Shaman and knows Roa's dirty little secret, wouldn't you think she'd continue to go after Roa? Her vote for Nogrod would have to be based on her face value reasoning, because as the Shaman she wouldn't have gotten her own dream. So why would she abandone the guilty Roa and go after someone she couldn't know about? Maybe, as an Orc, you just assume that she's trying to protect herself and not seem too "Shamanlike" by continuing to go after Roa based on logic that has been called into question by Nogrod. The combined Days posting makes me suspicious of Roa, depending on what the Orcs are thinking. It's entirely possible they saw how suspicious it would make Roa if they killed Spawn. On the same token, isn't it kind of stupid to kill someone who has boldly accused you? Roa's not stupid. And what does all this say about Nogrod? He seemed highly suspicious of Spawn's reasons for voting Roa. Would an Orc, worried about his fellow Orc being in the spotlight, seek to force her accuser into admitting being the Shaman? That seems unwise. Because you'd get your fellow Orc killed, even if you did then confirm who the Shaman was. Wouldn't it be more wise to carefully avoid addressing Spawn's comments in hopes that no one really notices ? Okay, that's it for now. I'm disinclined to vote for Roa. I'm not sure what to think of Nogrod. I am going to look at Jenny's posts. __________________ All shall be rather fond of me and suffer from mild depression.