This is a noisy village, for the most part, as I suspected it would be. I’m gonna have quite a hard time keeping up.
I see that
Nogrod has succeeded in making Owlish tactics and the merits of dicussing them the main topic of conversation after all.
This I regard as entirely unhelpful, for the reasons that I stated earlier. Nevertheless, as others have said, it is quite typical for him on Day 1, and it would be foolish for a Duck to draw attention to himself so. So I hesitate to believe him Duckish purely on the basis of this.
Nevertheless, the discussions centred around our Owl have already done some potential damage, I believe, which really ought to be remedied. Nogrod suggested that we should all drop hints, suggesting our Owlishness, so as to “buy time” for the real Owl. How ludicrous would that be? Every time that an innocent dies, we will be scanning their posts and making accusations based on them, on the basis that the dead villager might have been the real Owl. A lot of dead innocents lie down that road. The Owl too would have to drop hints, since not to do so would mean that he or she would stick out like a sore thumb. But the Owl’s hints would have to be true, so as not to render them useless. And who is in the best position to spot this? I’ll give you a clue. They have bills and webbed feet. So the plan, at best, delivers a pile of dead innocents and, at worst, a dead Owl. ‘Tis a silly plan. We should not go there.
Hmm, maybe I should reassess my opinion of Nogrod. But no. Surely it would be too risky for a Duck to suggest such a dangerous plan here at the beginning of all things.
As for
mormegil’s observation that the Goose might try declaring as an Owl, it would be a foolish thing to do, assuming that the Owl is on his or her talons. To be believable, the Goose would have to declare one, probably two, “Ducks“. A wise Owl will remain silent - that should go (and should have gone) without saying. Either the Goose gets “lucky” and a Duck is lynched (in which case the Goose is failing in his or her task) or an innocent is lynched, swiftly followed by the Goose. But by identifying this as a potential risk, you make it more likely that a real Owl declaration, on Day 3 for example, will not be believed. On the contrary, I think that we should believe any Owl declaration. It can soon be accurately, and lethally for a Goose masquerading as an Owl, tested.
This is exactly what I meant when I suggested that we should avoid discussion of Owlish strategy. Not only do we risk putting the Owl in a difficult position, but we also risk tying ourselves up in knots. And now you have got me doing it, albeit to try to repair the damage that has already been done. I suggest we leave the Owl and the other Gifteds to get on with their business and get on with our own which, for true ordos, is analysing, testing, putting forward theories, accusing and, ultimately, voting.
More in that vein soon, although it might not be for an hour or so as my dinner of rat’s tails and mouldy potatoes is shortly to be served …