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Old 04-27-2006, 11:53 AM   #174
Nogrod
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I’ve been looking those who are left out from Morm’s (own analysis)list concerning Nilp. If we leave out those who actually voted for Nilp – just for this analysis - and those who a) said nothing, b) said little or unsubstantial, or c) defended him, it leaves four people out of the inquiry: Morm himself, Spm, Roa and Lalaith. Their thoughts about Nilp – and their actual votes were as follows:


Quote:
Spm #22
I also think Nilp's self-vote to be extremely unhelpful. It tallies with his regular suicidal approach, and so tells us nothing. And he knows by now that few are likely to vote for him for it, precisely because it is his standard behaviour. Unhelpful, unenlightening and, in my view, decidedly suspicious. As matters stand, I may just vote for him, precisely because of that.

Spm #26
But that could be precisely what he wants us to think. The fact is that his self-vote does not give anything away, as it is what we would expect from him. It’s unhelpful, even in future days when Day 1 ramblings might reveal more. That’s why I am suspicious of him.

Spm #73
I mentioned my suspicions of Nilp and his self-vote earler, and they hold.

Spm #99
At the moment, my other main suspects are Nilp, for reasons stated earlier (although I am inclined to give him a chance and see how he acts tomorrow),

Spm #113
And I am not inclined to consider saving Nilp or Sleepy (and would not be even were I not suspicious of them myself). If they get lynched, it’s their own silly fault for random/suicidal voting.
VOTING: Mithalwen (10th vote – Nilp in trouble, but still Mith’s first voter)
10. SpM for Mith (Nilp-3, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1, Sleepy-2, Mith-1)


Quote:
Roa #25
3. I find Nilp's self-vote annoying. Does he actually become more helpful if he survives Day 1? If so, leave him. If not, get rid of him.

Roa #103
Maybe if we let Nilp live, he'll be useful. If he pulls the same stunt tomorrow, I'll probably vote for him, and advocate his banishment from Werewolf. (People like that just take up space and make the game less fun. And if he is a Duck, I find it terribly unsporting and he should be ashamed of himself.)
10 minutes in between these posts...
Roa #104
I really don't want Nilp or Sleepy to die, since I'm curious as to what they'll do on Day 2. Especially Nilp.
VOTING: Glirdan (11th vote – Nilp still in trouble, Getting Glirdan nearer, but not voting Sleepy with 2 already)
11. Roa for Glirdan (Nilp-3, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-2, Sleepy-2, Mith-1)


Quote:
Morm #76
Now Nilp is generally unhelpful on Day 1 and if his desire is to die I may encourage it though he may not be a duck I think it's possible. How are we to know if he continually votes for himself, and as was pointed out, would do so this time to avoid suspicious.

Morm #95
Nilp makes good cannon fodder but is it an easy way out? But then again he could be guilty. ........... I'm really fairly clueless right now so as to spread things out a bit.

Morm #106
I find Sleepy's sudden vote for Nilp as odd. I know the whole 'self-preservation arguement' so don't bother. However notice how it came immediately after he became tied with Nilp. Obviously Nilp is a person that would be easy to get lynched today so it does seem highly suspect to me.
VOTING: Nogrod (5th vote, very safe...)
5. Morm for Nogrod (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1)


Quote:
Lalaith #79
I am veering towards Nilp - as tradition or no, I don't approve of suicide and find it singularly unhelpful under the current circumstances. It is also a good mask to hide behind.

Lalaith #97
I've been pondering on the Nilp question and I think I'll give him another chance. After all, if he did break the tradition, that would look suspicious, too...
VOTING: Glirdan (6th. Vote – widening the suspects, not of utmost help to Nilp)
6. Lalaith for Glirdan (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1)

* The vote-counts by Spm...

I don't know, whether their actual votes or the voting situation should be counted straightforwardly - our ducks are probably cunning enough not to try to save their companion and leave a track there (I've just mentioned them to see the situation, where they voted).

Judge yourselves. I'll try to do some thinkiing on these - and other matters too - quite soon.
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