Quote:
|
Originally Posted by mormegil
If I do die today please don't discount the possibility that SpM might be a Duck.
|
Regretfully, I must concede that, as far as the rest of you are concerned, it remains a possibility. There is little I can say to change this, but I can assure you that you will do better to look elsewhere for the remaining Duck.
So, we are left with two “known innocents”: Mith and Valier.
Having reread everything since the start, I have seen nothing to alter my original assessment that
Cailín is most likely innocent. That, in itself concerns me, since she is a skilful player and would no doubt be adept at remaining hidden, if a Duck. But it’s not nearly enough to merit vote for her today.
Nogrod seemed genuine (if misguided) in his Day 1 attempt to provoke discussion of Owl strategy. But, there does seem to have been a perceptible change in his approach from Day 2 on. He moved away from discussing strategies and (seemingly) became much more helpful. At the time - I thought the change was for the better and it seemed to confirm his innocence. But now, a change in behaviour from Day 1 to Day 2 looks mighty suspicious. Like morm, he flip-flopped on the Mith/Glirdan revelations - possibly hedging his bets (not knowing which was the Goose and which the Owl)? If the Cursed Duck is the one who remains among us, he is a distinct possibility.
Lote voted for Nilp on Day 1 to put him ahead on two votes. But the Ducks may well have thought that Nilp would not attract enough votes to be lynched, as his traditional Day 1 approach is often overlooked as “Nilp just being Nilp”. A possible Duck-on-Duck vote, then. She believed Mith’s declaration (and followed Mith in voting for Roa). But then, after Glirdan’s declaration, she said she “had a bad feeling about Mith” in the first place” and was “not surprised she is lying”. These later statements very much mirror JennyHallu’s approach to the Day 2 revelations. Yesterday, she continued to believe Glirdan’s claim in preference to Mith’s and voted for Mith - possibly hoping to get Mith lynched? I am now very suspicious of Lote. She could be one of the original Ducks, or (in light of her Day 1 vote for Nilp) she might equally be the Cursed Duck.
I have seen nothing to suggest Duckishness on the part of
Kath, other than her voting pattern as outlined by morm. Certainly, if morm is innocent, then Kath’s voting pattern does looks extremely suspicious.
I have already outlined (yesterday and today) why I find
mormegil suspicious. Also, on re-reading everything, his defensiveness struck me. Not just yesterday. He has responded to every little suspicion voiced against him with careful reasoning. His suggestion that we might want to kill him today and then, when he is shown to be innocent (as he claims will be the case), kill Kath speaks in his favour. Yet, perhaps it is a ploy to make him look innocent. In any event, it is perhaps not such a bad plan …
So, a number of possible candidates for lynching. I am inclined to vote for Lote, as I currently find the case against her most compelling. However, there may be merit in a vote for morm, since it may either catch us a Duck or identify one in the form of Kath.
Back later with more thoughts and a vote.