[Nogrod]

If we can all assure ourselves, that Mith was the Owl and Glirdy the goose. Then it would seem "bussiness as usual".

And we would have an overall scheme about the following:
Valier - dreamed innocent
Spm - dreamed innocent (very high probability)
Nogrod - dreamed innocent (high probability)

Cailin/non-Cailin - not suspected much
Morm - suspected / not suspected
Kath - highly suspected

But if we come to think of Mith as the goose, the situation changes, taking one of the dreamed ones out of the list. It does not mean, that one of the dreamt ones is a duck, but it opens that possibility. Now then: it would not be Spm, as he was backed by Glirdy too (if Mith is a goose, then Glirdy is the right Owl). I know, it wouldn't be me, as I have not changed. That would then move Valier to my list of possible ducks.

That leads to the reasons / motivations, why the goose-Mith was killed?

Firstly, it's possible, that the duck was afraid of being caught as a duck (believing Mith the owl). That would mean, that the dreamt of's are all innocents.

Secondly, the duck might have thought of Mith as the goose, but as she seemed not to get any ducks on the lineup of innocents, she had to be stopped before she got too many innocents revealed. That also leaves all the dreamt of's innocent.

Thirdly, and most anguishly, the duck might have just gotten to the list, and decided to stop it to the best place possible. As the least suspected person, Valier could basically secure herself alive after tomorrows lynch (three left), and thence win the game. If either I or Spm would have been the duck, we should have killed her earlier, not to bring too many innocents to spoil our game.

I'm not saying, that Valier is the duck. I'm just pointing out, that if the case Mith is rethought (as I see possible, even though not as evident), then Valier could be one of our real suspects. That's because: I know, that only she can be the duck from us three dreamt of's, and because her place on the list fits Mith's death only today, and is the best possible for sealing the victory.

I would like to hear your comments on this Owl/goose thing today.

I will promise to look at Kath's earlier posting more closely today. But a bit later.