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Old 05-03-2006, 07:21 PM   #532
The Saucepan Man
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Join Date: Jan 2003
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The Saucepan Man has been trapped in the Barrow!
White-Hand

Well, despite all the din and clamour of Kath and morm squabbling, I have been giving serious thought to the possibility that both may be innocent.

I am still working on the basis that Mith was the true Owl, since that seems the most credible scenario to me. And on that basis, I believe Valier to be innocent.

If Cailín is a Duck, then the substiution of non-Cailín and his ensuing quietness has served them well. But there really isn’t enough to go on. I have seen little otherwise to suggest that he/she is a Duck and so cannot, in all conscience, vote for him/her.

Nogrod concerns me because I think it quite possible that he was targeted by the Ducks on Night 2. Certainly, his approach seems to have changed after Day 1. He has been much less abrasive and sounded much more reasonable. Which, given his reputation, worries me. His raising the possibility of Valier being a Duck also worries me, as it is precisely what a Duck would do. Yet it’s not quite enough to merit a vote. Not today, at least.

And so I am back to morm and Kath.

I find most of morm’s points against Kath to be weak. The only real point that I can see against her is her voting record. But, on closer inspection, it looks decidedly non-Duckish. I really don’t believe that a Duckish Kath would have allowed herself to vote for someone other than the Duck that was lynched three days running. And, if a Duck, her best Day 2 vote would surely have been for spawn, who was almost certain to be lynched at the time she voted (post-Glirdan’s revelation).

The case against morm is far stronger. His flip-flopping over the Mith/Glirdan revelations (which seems a Duckish approach). His efforts to dissuade Mith from dreaming of him. His votes for spawn and Jenny (at times when they were almost certain to be lynched), calculated, I think, to gain credibility. His defensiveness throughout. His single-minded pursuit of Kath today and seeming refusal to seriously consider any alternatives. Together with the good points that Nogrod has brought up, this all, to my mind, strongly points to morm being our final Duck.

+ + MORMEGIL
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