The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

Caranlondien · 05-18-2006, 08:22 PM

Okay, the fact that Nilp just came out and gave us information kind of invalidates this post I've been working on... But I'm going to post it anyway! I spent a darned long time on it! So here's what I was going to say...

About Gurthang's plan...

These are our villagers:
1. Diamond
2. Caranlondien
3. Roa Aoife
4. Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
5. Kath
6. Lommy
7. Glirdan
8. Valier
9. Sleepy Ranger
10. Kitanna
11. Firefoot
12. Alcarillo
13. Oddwen
14. mormegil
15. Feanor
16. Zali
17. Jenny Hallu
18. Lalaith
19. Eonwe
20. Eomer
21. Nilpaurion
22. Gurthang

We now know the last of those to be the GW. So that brings us down to 21 unknowns (for us ordos, anyway). If we vote on our own, we have a 5/21 (a little less than 1 in 4) chance of getting a baddie.

Now, Gurthang knows the identities of two innocents, correct? The Hunter and the former Seer. So for him there are 19 unknowns. 5 of those 19 are baddies. So eliminating the middle steps, our chances are 5/19 of getting a baddie. The middle steps can't hurt our chances, and they might help them (I'm not so good at statistics...).

The psychological problem with the proposed plan is that the choice is less in our hands. But from a randomly speaking point of view, our chances are improved.

You might read lorebooks saying my ancestors have been known to argue against plans based on statistics. It's true. But in those cases, it was because I felt that the game wasn't random, because we were using our own judgement. But in a village this big, with so much uncertainty, and with people's roles changing, I think we are as near randomness as we can get.

Listen to the GW!

05-18-2006, 08:22 PM	#608
Caranlondien Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel Posts: 339	Okay, the fact that Nilp just came out and gave us information kind of invalidates this post I've been working on... But I'm going to post it anyway! I spent a darned long time on it! So here's what I was going to say... About Gurthang's plan... These are our villagers: 1. Diamond 2. Caranlondien 3. Roa Aoife 4. Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant 5. Kath 6. Lommy 7. Glirdan 8. Valier 9. Sleepy Ranger 10. Kitanna 11. Firefoot 12. Alcarillo 13. Oddwen 14. mormegil 15. Feanor 16. Zali 17. Jenny Hallu 18. Lalaith 19. Eonwe 20. Eomer 21. Nilpaurion 22. Gurthang We now know the last of those to be the GW. So that brings us down to 21 unknowns (for us ordos, anyway). If we vote on our own, we have a 5/21 (a little less than 1 in 4) chance of getting a baddie. Now, Gurthang knows the identities of two innocents, correct? The Hunter and the former Seer. So for him there are 19 unknowns. 5 of those 19 are baddies. So eliminating the middle steps, our chances are 5/19 of getting a baddie. The middle steps can't hurt our chances, and they might help them (I'm not so good at statistics...). The psychological problem with the proposed plan is that the choice is less in our hands. But from a randomly speaking point of view, our chances are improved. You might read lorebooks saying my ancestors have been known to argue against plans based on statistics. It's true. But in those cases, it was because I felt that the game wasn't random, because we were using our own judgement. But in a village this big, with so much uncertainty, and with people's roles changing, I think we are as near randomness as we can get. Listen to the GW!