Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Lommy
So I'm not completely anti-Day1, you see. I just dislike them on Day1s.
|
Fair enough, but I still don’t see much substance in your contributions. Even if you don’t like Day 1s while you are in them, that is no reason not to put forward ideas, theories and speculation in the hope that it may just catch a Wolf. Only the Wolves want Day 1s to be unproductive.
So, building on my earlier thoughts, it seems to me that the best course of action for the Wolves on Day 1 will involve trying to avoid saying or doing anything that may come back to haunt them later or which may help the village. They will be non-committal, put forward few theories (certainly nothing controversial) and generally do their best to maintain a presence while saying nothing that will draw attention to them.
Of course, it is always possible that there will be an “in your face” Wolf who will be going for the bluff, behaving in a way that no one would expect a Wolf to act on Day 1 and thereby hoping to avoid being lynched, while confusing and misdirecting the village at the same time. However, that’s a risky strategy as, once suspicion is garnered, it tends to stick. I would be surprised if more than one Wolf (at most) adopted this strategy today.
With that in mind, I would divide the village as follows:
Those who have not yet said or done enough to draw any conclusions
Mith
morm
Lmp
Those who have maintained a presence while contributing little to the debate (possible Wolves)
Form
Lommy
TGWBS
Tom
Caran
Those who have contributed little, but nevertheless attracted attention to themselves (possible bold Wolves)
Nilp
Fea
Durelin
Those who have seemingly made a useful contribution (likely innocents, but possible cunning Wolves)
Lhuna
Cailín (solid recent contributions)
Celuien
Nogrod
Findëasëa
Spawn
Boro
If I had to place myself, it would be in the third category, but others may feel that I belong in the second.
For current purposes, I am ignoring the category 1 villagers, for lack of data. I doubt that any of them will remain as quiet as they are currently being.
I believe that there is at least one Wolf, possibly two, in category 2. All of these villagers, to varying degrees, look to be exhibiting the kind of behaviour that I would expect from a Wolf on Day 1.
As for category 3, I have residual suspicions of Nilp and Fea, but they are waning. I don’t think that either would be foolish enough, as a Wolf, to allow themselves to fall into this category. Mind you, Nilp has form (courtesy of his ancestors) in this regard.
There is quite possibly a Wolf in category 4 (possibly even two, but unlikely, I think). That is the Wolf that we should fear the most, but it is also the one that we are least likely to catch today.
I am still inclined to view Nogrod and Boro as innocent, for reasons stated earlier. And I remain content with my vote for Form.