The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - WWJ IX: Psychotic Penguins: The Crossing of Helcaraxë

JennyHallu · 06-08-2006, 12:27 PM

Macalaure...maths always make me nervous, but shoddy maths make me downright suspicious.

Our proverbial villager-er-iceberger can discount himself, knowing his own innocence, so his first pick is out of 14, not 15. 3 are wolves: therefore his chances of correctly naming an innocent is 11 out of 14.

On day 2, assuming we have lost 2 innocents, he is down to 12 choices. His chances are now 9 out of 12.

But you are assuming randomness, and that simply does not hold. An iceberger does not, perhaps, know anything, but neither are we incapable of intelligent analysis. The more information we have to work with, the higher the chance of being correct in our analyses. And each innocent revealed by death increases the real information we have, and makes analysis even stronger. I have great faith in the power of these icebergers!!

06-08-2006, 12:27 PM	#53
JennyHallu The Pearl, The Lily Maid Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: In my luxury Barrow, snuggled up in a pile of satin pillows, eating fresh fruit. Posts: 1,628	Macalaure...maths always make me nervous, but shoddy maths make me downright suspicious. Our proverbial villager-er-iceberger can discount himself, knowing his own innocence, so his first pick is out of 14, not 15. 3 are wolves: therefore his chances of correctly naming an innocent is 11 out of 14. On day 2, assuming we have lost 2 innocents, he is down to 12 choices. His chances are now 9 out of 12. But you are assuming randomness, and that simply does not hold. An iceberger does not, perhaps, know anything, but neither are we incapable of intelligent analysis. The more information we have to work with, the higher the chance of being correct in our analyses. And each innocent revealed by death increases the real information we have, and makes analysis even stronger. I have great faith in the power of these icebergers!! __________________ <=== Lookee, lookee, lots of IM handles!