View Single Post
Old 06-10-2006, 12:12 AM   #162
the phantom
Beloved Shadow
 
the phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: The Stadium
Posts: 5,971
the phantom is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.the phantom is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.the phantom is wading through snowdrifts on Redhorn.
Send a message via MSN to the phantom
Eye

Okay, now I'll quickly explain the comment I made earlier.
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
For right now, I'll just say that from the voting alone, Valier looks suspicious. Anguirel, Diamond, and Mac also make votes that would be the logical vote for a WP to make at the time it was cast. Firefoot's too, though a bit less so.
Why are their votes Penguinish, you ask?

Here are my reasons for suspecting their votes (in order from most suspicious to least).

1) Valier
She voted for Anguirel when the voting stood at-
Lalaith-4
Kitanna-3
Boro-2
Roa-1
Ang-1

She cast the vote when there were only three non-voters left. At that point, Lalaith had not revealed, and so it was a solid bet that, with two people already above him, Boro was safe, and thus a fellow Penguin's vote was not necessary to save him. A smart penguin would probably not vote for Lal or Kit (don't want to be part of lynching an innocent), would not vote for Boro (too risky to vote for him at that point), and would not vote for someone who had no votes at all (it would look like a throwaway vote).

The perfect scenario would be to vote for a Penguin with only one vote. It would create seperation without much of a risk. Is that what happened? Are Valier and Ang Penguins? We'll find out eventually.

2) Anguirel
He cast a very early vote for Eonwe. That's not a huge risk though, because we have retractable votes. As soon as Boro received a vote, Ang switched his vote to Kitanna, tying her for the early lead with Lalaith at two votes a piece. Padding Lalaith's lead would've been a bit too bold for a Penguin, so Ang did the next best thing and elevated another innocent into the lead.

3) Diamond
When Boro moved up to two votes with Kit and just behind Lal (who had three), Di stepped in and bumped Lal back up to a two point lead.

4) Mac
When Mac steps in it is a decent bet that Boro is safe (down 4-2 to Lal), and so Mac votes for Kit, bumping her up from 2 to 3. That seems like the sort of thing a Penguin would do. Instead of voting for the leader and getting the hands dirty, or appearing like you're trying to pad the lead to save a fellow penguin, you instead elevate another innocent up to near the top.

5) Firefoot
She was the first to stack her vote onto someone who already had a vote. Also, she never tried to retract despite the fact that she had voted for the Seer. That doesn't sound like Ff (though I guess it's possible she was just busy).
__________________
the phantom has posted.
This thread is now important.

Last edited by the phantom; 06-10-2006 at 12:18 AM.
the phantom is offline   Reply With Quote