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Old 06-11-2006, 05:37 PM   #251
the phantom
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Okay, Mr. Known Innocent, what are you real thoughts on toDay? *puts pressure on tp's phantasmic shoulders*
What, are you seriously wanting me to be active today? I figured I'd just show up at the very end to vote.

All right, all right.... thoughts....

Jenn did her job- she made the village waste a lynch on her as opposed to getting killed by the WPs. Though I guess it's good she's gone, as now no one need wonder if someone is a sneaky Cobbler.

Do you think both WPs voted for her? Did they suspect she was the Cobbler and tried to keep her alive? Do you think the WPs saw a chance to lynch Jenn over Valier and took it knowing Valier would surely be a likely vote again today? Or do you think Valier is a WP and she was barely saved by the Cobbler?

Okay. I'm going to go back and find a few Boro quotes from day 1 and say what I think about them. In my opinion, that's about the best evidence we have- the words of a known WP. The question is, can we get inside Boro's head and figure out his reasoning, or will his layers of bluffing fool us completely?

Boro on...
1) Valier
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Valier and Eonwe are acting too strange to be evil penguins.
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Like I said before I doubt wp's would be this eccentric and wild in the beginning. So for now there's no reason to suspect Valier.
Is Boro betting on the defending-a-fellow-WP-is-too-obvious-to-be-believable approach, or is he trying to guarantee an innocent Valier's demise if he is discovered?

2) Eonwe
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Valier and Eonwe are acting too strange to be evil penguins.
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Eonwe Seems like she's having some Day 1 fun, but I hope that changes from our herald.
Not as obvious as Valier, but definitely pointing towards innocent, though the statement has a slightly negative ending, and Eonwe seems ignored compared to Valier. What does that mean?

3) Firefoot
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Firefoot brought up useful comment on the cobbler, one which I completely forgot about, seeing as I have no remembrance of a cobbler for a very very long time now. So Firefoot I'm ok with for now, a very logical sensible person to have around.
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Firefoot, if innocent can greatly benefit the village, if penguin would probably be our demise. But we shouldn't lynch a player like Firefoot on Day 1, unless she wants to tell us a little secret that only 2 other people know?
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Firefoot, hasn't said a whole lot yet, seems to be more observant so far today. Perhaps that's just because there's really not too much out there. Again, like phantom, I like the advice from her so far, but it wouldn't surprise me if she was a wolf.
For some reason I am still uneasy with Boro's talk about Firefoot. If FF is innocent, kudos to Boro for triggering a false alarm in my head.

Boro is trying to put it into people's heads that Firefoot is someone you want to have around, and yet he feels the need to say that he'd be scared of her as a wolf and that he wouldn't be surprised if she was one. What do people think about that?

4) Naria
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Naria I don't know at this point. Naria seems to be one of those silent contributors. Doesn't have to post a lot (unlike me) to have solid input and contribution to the village. I will be expecting to see more substance instead of just, hi I'm tired bye, but in this early going there's no reason to cry penguin.
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Naria and Encaitare both haven't posted anything yet. Well Naria did, but I'm not counting that. So, I can't make a decision on them yet at all.
What, is Naria playing in this game? Could've fooled me. She's being very quiet and under the radar. She didn't do enough to get a good reaction from Boro.

5) Enca
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Naria and Encaitare both haven't posted anything yet. Well Naria did, but I'm not counting that. So, I can't make a decision on them yet at all.
Same thing as Naria- Enca hasn't given me enough to be comfortable with her. I'd almost be willing to vote for either of them just to get rid of their silence.

(I say something like that every game, don't I)

6) Ang
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Anguirel, I must say Spawns comments were very intriguing on Anguirel. At first it seemed to me like Anguirel was going off with what he had at the time, but good points have been raised against him. I'm going to hold off until he gets back.
Boro puts Ang on the most suspicious list, and clearly paints Spawn as the reason why. What is the purpose? If Ang is a WP, then Boro is trying to show his suspicion of him to make himself look good, while at the same time making a statement that shows he will not be voting for him. Or perhaps he is trying to make Spawn look like she is setting up an innocent Ang, which would speak to Spawn's innocence as well.

7) Spawn
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Spawn backs up and says she was going to say something like the phantom, for everyone to just leave clues on who they feel is innocent. Seems a little fishy to me...trying to associate yourself with an innocent perhaps?
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Most of them I already explained why they appear innocent before. Spawn for her input on Anguirel she seems innocent. I don't know yet what to make of Anguirel, but Spawn's input is beneficial, helpful, and usually I don't suspect the one's who announce stronger suspicions this early. For it's a bold move for a WP to stick their neck out and first really start the suspicions.
Is Boro's last statement meant to stick in our heads and lead us astray? He has Spawn firmly on his innocent list after finding her fishy early. Is he trying to bring an innocent to his side?

8) Diamond
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I can't find much significance in Roa's, phantom's, or Diamond's, posts yet, so there's nothing for me to go off of.
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And Diamond has just confused me so far. The cobbler business seemed awkward to me, I'm glad she came out and explained it more, but she's not done anything to make me feel like she's innocent like the "innocent looking" group.
So, do you see anything unusual there?

9) Roa
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I can't find much significance in Roa's, phantom's, or Diamond's, posts yet, so there's nothing for me to go off of.
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Roa there is a common misconception about theories, everyone seems to think it's just baseless and preposterous. Now a true theory is a hypothesis based UPON facts. So, the facts are sitting out there and then based on those facts you form a hypothesis which = theory. And for everybody except the wps and the Seer all we have to find the penguins are theories. Which means taking facts, like what people say, how they vote, who's killed...etc taking that knowledge and using it to present a hypothesis that is backed up by facts (aka a theory).
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Roa has come in established a presence in the village, but really hasn't if you know what I mean. Also, as I remarked before I don't agree with the "don't throw around theories or baseless arguments," and what do I propose you want us to do to catch a penguin miss Guardian?
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Roa's acts are strange but it actually in a wierd way makes her look more innocent to me. She's just being far too aggressive
He mostly argues with Roa, and places her on the most suspicious part of his list, and then later says she's innocent. Is that suspicious? Was Lalaith on the right track or not?

10) Mac
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Macalaure is just catching onto the game, which means he's one of the most innocent looking ones to me so far. His lack of understanding and his objection to phantom's proposal speaks towards his innocence. There's no reason for penguins to attract that much attention to themselves early in the beginning. Seems like he's your ordinary innocent that is trying to help the village.
Is Boro trying to cover for his brand new WP buddy? Or is he maybe trying to gain a friend early by extending a hand of trust?

Oh, and I just thought I'd say that we shouldn't be too worried if we don't catch a WP today. Considering the population of the village the odds are against us. And really, we've gotten a WP and the Cob so far, so we've got to miss sooner or later.

Just so long as we don't stay off track for long.
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Last edited by the phantom; 06-11-2006 at 05:46 PM.
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