[The Saucepan Man]

OK, here's the first part of my overNight workings. Voting record from Day 1, considered in light of what we know now. Known innocents are in italics (with surviving known non-Wolves also underlined). Wolf is in bold.

1. Morm ->Glirdan (Glirdan-1)
2. Lhuna ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-1)
3. Rune ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2)
4. Glirdan ->Kath (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2, Kath-1)
5. Nilp ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
6. TGWBS ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
7. Durelin ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-2)
8. Diamond ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-2)
9. Anguirel ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3)
10. Lalaith ->Form (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3, Form-1)
11. Caranlondien ->Jenny (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3, Form-1, Jenny-1)
12. Firefoot ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1)
13. SpM ->Holby (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-1)
14. Holby ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-1)
15. Jenny ->Holby (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2)
16. Formendacil ->Lalaith (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-1)
17. Findeasea ->Lalaith (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2)
18. Gurthang ->Diamond (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
19. Eomer ->Glirdan (Glirdan-2, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Formendacil-1, JennyHallu-1, Holbytlass-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
20. Taliesin ->Eomer (Glirdan-2, Eomer-5, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Formendacil-1, JennyHallu-1, Holbytlass-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)

No vote: Kath

A few points worth noting, I think. First, as is often the case on Day 1s (whenever my line is present, at least), most of the votes went to innocents. The votees from Day 1 who remain unknown are: Glirdan (2 votes), Kath (1 vote) and Lalaith (2 votes). If we tentatively assume that at least one vote on Day 1 went to a Wolf (and I think it likely), then one of these is a Wolf. Then again, I'm not sure how far this gets us as, with 9 unknowns and 3 Wolves, one of these is likely to be a Wolf on the law of averages.

More pertinently, of those in the Eomer bandwaggon, one was a Wolf and only one, TGWBS, remains unknown. Would two Wolves have voted in the Eomer bandwaggon? I tend to think not, which reinforces my feeling that TGWBS is likely to be innocent.

Of those in the Nilp bandwaggon, three remain unknown: Durelin, Anguirel and Firefoot. Sticking by my theory that at least one Wolf voted in the Nilp bandwaggon, then at least one of these is a Wolf.

I think that the two remaining Wolves would probably have placed their votes elsewhere. Of the "other" voters, Glirdan, Lalaith, SpM, Gurthang and (non-voter) Kath remain unknown. I think two of these people (excluding myself, for my purposes, obviously) are Wolves.

Only one possible Wolf-on-Wolf vote - Glirdan's vote for Kath. I think it unlikely that a Wolf would have voted for another Wolf on Day 1, if for no other reason than it would most likely arouse their fellow Wolves' suspicions that they might be the traitor among them. If that's right, then either Glirdan or Kath is a Wolf, but not both. Glirdan's vote might be described as a safe vote, given that Kath was not under much suspicion. As for Kath's non-vote, well some of you have already considered whether a Wolf would be likely not to vote. Personally, I don't see why not.

Other than that, the only vote that strikes me as particularly Wolfish is that of Gurthang, a safe, throwaway vote for Diamond when Nilp was almost done for and the only either possible lynchee was Eomer, although that is a point which has been raised previously.

Day 2 voting record analysis coming up ...