[The Saucepan Man]

Sorry for jabbering on folks. Just a bit more and then I'll shut up. As I said, I want to get all this down now as I will be away for most of the rest of the Day.

I know Caran has already done an analysis of Rune's posts, but I had already largely prepared my own analysis, so I might as well offer it up for general consumption.

Day 1:

Unreasoned (second) vote for innocent Eomer.

Day 2:

Agrees with Formendacil that Eomer’s death was calculated to cause confusion. Expresses surprise at so many votes for Nilp. Was he perhaps directing us towards the Nilp voters (of whom Durelin, Ang and Firefoot remain unknown)? [#119]

Tempted to agree with Jenny re Jenny’s explanation of her vote for Holby.

Picks up on morm’s case against Ang - thinks one of them a Wolf. Cannot read Glirdan. Thinks Lhuna innocent (she was). Needs strong evidence to vote for a potentially helpful, but also potentially dangerous, SpM. Came to suspect Holby and Firefoot on the basis of SpM’s reasoning. TGWBS seems crooked (gut feeling). Won’t vote for Jenny. Likely to vote for TGWBS, Holby, Firefoot or, possibly, Glirdan. [#161]

Defends Jenny again, against Taliesin. [#179]

Finds that Firefoot has been helpful, so will not vote for her. That leaves Glirdan and Holby (TGWBS disappears from his suspect list, although he reappears on Day 3). Votes Holby because “she is capable fo more” (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holby-1). [#189]

Day 3:

Expresses surprise that Jenny was the Hunter, but not surprised that she chose Form as her target. Challenges Glirdan’s assertion that he’s a vocal player. No prime suspect. [#227]

Analyses TGWBS, Glirdan, morm/Ang, Holby and Firefoot (his Day 2 stated suspects). Finds TGWBS very suspicious - quiet and confusing - and likely to get his vote. Finds Glirdan slightly suspicious. Still thinks either Ang or morm is a Wolf. Still suspicious of Holby, but unlikely to vote for her. Little suspicion of Firefoot because of her helpfulness. Thinks those not mentioned innocent for now. [#234]

Votes for TGWBS on previous reasoning (SpM-1, TGWBS-1). [#239]

Day 4:

Early post which says little, but which smacked of Wolvery to me. [#302]

In response to Di’s entreaty, would consider voting for SpM, but would need strong evidence. [#310]

Sees Gurthang as suspicious for picking up on his “dangerous villagers” comment. Sticking with his suspicion of Ang on the basis that morm turned out innocent. [#326 and #329]

Votes for SpM, supposedly as his best shot of surviving (SpM-2, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2). [#355]

Summary

It looks to me like Rune may have been setting Anguirel up with his "theory" that either morm or Anguirel was a Wolf. This is a technique that an ancestor of mine used as a Wolf to lay suspicion on first one innocent and then (when he died) another. To my mind, that speaks in Ang's favour.

Most of those that Rune explicitly stated he thought innocent innocent or defended have turned out innocent (Lhuna and Jenny).

His main stated suspects were TGWBS, Holby and Firefoot, though he later stated that his supicions of Firefoot had eased.

He expressed mild suspicion of Glirdan, morm and Ang (and, on Day 4, Gurthang).

As far as I can see, he never mentioned Kath, Lalaith and Durelin.