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Old 09-11-2006, 07:33 AM   #229
Thinlómien
Shady She-Penguin
 
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
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Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.
"This is how went the lynch of Menelwolf...

Boromir was the first one to accuse him, but jokingly. Though there was still a concern of Menel's playing style. (121) A fellow wolf might do this, but I think that'd be unprobable.

Nogrod was the second to accuse Menel. His accusations were more severe:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod
. . . "Trying to avoid leaving any tracks, contradiction and flip-flopping. Bad signs man." . . .
Declaring your suspicion random you clear your trail, if you say you can have a semi-educated guess and still use the dice you contradict yourself and if you then declare the earlier things just a whim or trad and proclaim to use reason instead, you flip-flop... You see?"
(139) I would find it strange if a fellow wolf launched this reasoned attaked on Menel when he was already (though a bit jokingly) accused by Boro.

Mac was the last to join the "campaign". He held suspicious Menel saying "Thinlómien's my prime suspect, but if she turns out innocent, I'll have a look at Naria". (140) Odd, if a fellow wolf would thus even more increase the pressure on Menel at this phase.

Boromir asked Menel to explain himself and continuec suspecting him, though he suspected Di too. (149) Comment same as above.

Mac was however the fist one to vote Menel, the first one to move from words to deds. (155) Now would a fellow wolf vote Menel seeing how much suspicion towards him was in the air? Doesn't sound probable. We shouldn't however discount the possibility of a Macawolf, who counted on there being a bigger movement against another villager. Or maybe Macawolf realised he had really accused only Menel and saw voting him as the only believable thing for him to do. Based on this I wouldn't think the existence of a Macawolf as a probable thing, but certainly as a possibility.

A bit later Nogrod named Menel his prime suspect. (158)

Boro was the second to vote Menel. (163) He made Menel not just a lynch candidate. A serious business for a fellow wolf. Based on this and his early and consistent attack on Menel, I don't believe Boro is a wolf, unless the wolves agred to sacrifice one of their own, which would be unprobable.

Noggie was the third and the last to vote Menel when there were only three votes left. One a known innocent (Jenny), Menel, Valesse and Naria. (165) As far as I recall, Naria, Valesse and Jenny hadn't suspected Menel. So maybe a Noggiewolf believed there would be enough votes for someone else in that bunch; Menel was killed by one vote difference, after all. Risky, this vote of wolf-Noggie's, sure, but certainly fruiful this far. Or maybe then either Naria or Valesse is a wolf and Noggie's too, and he expected the third wolf and Menel to save Menel. I don't know. However, recalling all these events I don't think he is a wolf, yet I don't deny the possibility.

So: Maca might maybe be a wolf. Nogrod probably isn't. I'm very surprised if Boro is one."

Thinlómien emptied her cup and sighed. "I must go to the horses soon, and probably don't have time for the Kath-analysis. Which is a pity. I'm probably going to vote one of my yesterday's suspects, that is Kath, Valesse or even a weird case, Sleepy."

EDIT: cross er.... spoke with Mac
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