[Farael]

Warning: this is a really long post... but it might just be worth it to actually read it

Edit: Sorry guys, I messed up my links... I hope they all work fine, I don't have time to fix it.

Post 3
First post of the game… from scratch he claims that

Originally Posted by CoD

So, I will surely have to wait and allow my superior intellect to grant me insight that the rest of you...commoners...could never obtain.

Is that a Seer hint on the first post of the game? A Seer will probably not do it, an ordo trying to protect the Seer wouldn’t either… since the wolves haven’t even had a chance to get a feel for the true seer. What does that leave us with?
http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496925&postcount=13
]Post 13[/URL]
Says that being evil does not mean being a wolf, and claims that maybe we should all keep an eye on me and Durelin. I don’t think that ever happened, at least not by him.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496944&postcount=18]Post 18[/URL]

Originally Posted by Loomy

#3 CaptainofDespair is a bit odd. I mean, when Farael (jokingly, or that's how I understood it, though you never know of him) accused Durelin calling her "evil Durelin" and proposing to lynch her, CaptainofDespair says:

To me, this sounds a wolfish (yet not very clever) tactic to get the accusations away from Durelin. According to my experience, there are two situations when one may defend a fellow villager like this: when the person is an over-reacting wolf and tries to get the accusations away from his/her partner or when the person in question thinks he/she has a good joke to answer the accusation with (which was not the case, in my opinion, or else I don't get CoD's sense of humour). So I'm inclined to believe the clumsy wolf-tactics, but I know nothing of CoD's playing records or ww experience, so it's difficult to say. So maybe I'm just overreacting, but that just caught my eye.

So, Loomy is calling CoD on somewhat flimsy grounds, but she has a point that maybe he was deflecting accusations off Durelin. He did say that we should keep an eye on her (and me) but he never DID keep an eye on us, so I’m starting to think he tried a concealed defence of Durelin and then tried to distance from her, just in case.

Well, I promised to make a comprehensive analysis on CoD so I have to try and add everything for your sake. That includes the Following (rather innocuous I think) comment.

Originally Posted by Anguirel on post 20 (no link, not really worth it IMO)

I can't stay long, but I thought CoD was quite funny...

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496958&postcount=22]Post 22[/URL]
By Loomy again

Good that you said that. Maybe it was intended as a funny joke instead of a defense.

But it might have been a clumsy defense as well, and my vote is based on that possibility:

++CaptainofDespair

Check my first post for longer reasoning

So, we have the first vote for CoD

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496963&postcount=23]Post 23[/URL]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

The drunkard Thinlomien's vote is, I believe, influenced by time and alcohol more than any nefarious reason - though it could be a way of staying out of the spotlight as a werewolf, I see this as unlikely.

Really interesting… is that a defense? We know Ang was an ordo, I have no idea why he was defending CoD. Perhaps he liked his sense of humour.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496970&postcount=25]Post 25[/URL]

Originally Posted by Boromir

Thinlo...I really am having trouble understanding your logic...

I mean I know it's Day 1 and all, and we all are grasping at straws here. But honestly CoD is one of the most innocent looking people (at least to me). Really he is the only one that has spoken some decent sense to me so far (see above quote), instead of complete bilge. I won't cast my vote for somebody that's been trying to make some sense out of the non-sensical Day 1's.

Well, I don’t see where CoD has talked some decent sense. All he’s done was talk in character and say you all should suspect me and Durelin. Don’t you all agree? By all means, go back through the thread and tell me if I missed something here… the only reason one would have to suspect me and Durelin was our three-post interchange about “Evil Durelin”. Granted, some may see that as suspicious, perhaps CoD is one of those “some” but to say that because he called us on it he’s one of the few actually talking some sense? Other than that, so far he’s only played in character! Boromir that really makes you look bad in my eyes.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496974&postcount=28]Post 28[/URL]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I see why some people wish see CoD innocent, but are you sure you're not misled here? (Well, no one can be sure, but think again).

I'm not referring to the post Lommy based her suspicion. If you look at it more carefully, you will see that after doubting Farel's point over Durelin, CoD thinks we should look closely both of them...

Ah Nogrod… you bring up an interesting point. CoD seems to defend Durelin but then he wants to keep an eye on both of us. Perhaps my theory of a veiled defence and then some distancing “just in case” is not that far off, eh?

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496985&postcount=31]Post 31[/URL]

Originally Posted by Boromir

I disagree. There are 14 people in this troop here....3 of whom who have yet to say something, the chances that at least one of those three actually is a wolf wouldn't be at all unusual.

Yes, the wolves do like to get out there and get the village turning (right now, for me, Nogrod, Anguirel, and CoD would fall under here). However, I wouldn't put it past at least one of the wolves to say very little (if anything at all) on Day 1...while one or both of their buddies go out and get their hands dirtied.

On those three above, I probably won't vote for any of them, today...though Nogrod looks the most dangerous (of the three). His suspicion of CoD looks a little bold for a wolf to make, but with his family history I wouldn't put anything past him. So, I guess you could say I'll be watching Nogrod.

Boromir suspects Nogrod on the basis of his accusation against CoD. He then mellows it down a little bit, but still… he is, again, defending CoD from scrutiny. Anyone else seeing a pattern here?

Now, it gets quite pretty here
http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496990&postcount=32]Post 32[/URL]
The post is fairly long and I don’t want to quote all of it. You have the link right up there if you want to re-read it for yourself.
Nogrod Calls CoD on his seemingly seer-hint on the first post of the game. That’s a good call. He makes pretty much the same points I made about that first post.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496995&postcount=34]Post 34[/URL]

Originally Posted by Rune, the cobbler

I am not convinced about CoD's guilt and I did not pay any atention to his comment when I saw it. . .so I am not going to hunt his head just yet.

Now, Rune did NOT have any insight what so ever about the identity of the wolves. Yet, he does have his instinct, thus odds are that he’ll try to protect whoever seems wolfish, without getting his hands too dirty. I can’t say I’m privy to Rune’s train of thought, but what I CAN say is that to me, it sounds as if he was defending CoD and trying to downplay what might have been a slip-up. Why would he take that risk if he didn’t think CoD was a wolf? After all, we all know that whoever defends someone who turns out lupine will be scrutinized rather closely.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496996&postcount=35]Post 35[/URL]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm not saying I'm convinced about CoD's guilt either. It's just the only suspicion that I can ground with some sense. If I'm not able to find any better candidates I will vote for CoD, but happily there's time and I will surely try to do some rewieving of other people later on.

Nothing really bad there… maybe Nogrod toning down his accusation a bit, but that’s not too rare in these situations.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=496998&postcount=37]Post 37[/URL]
CoD is STILL talking in character. I must say I do appreciate that, we all forget too readily to RP who we are supposed to be. Well, too late for that, I’m already in a “serious” mood. He defends himself somewhat playfully, and then he says he suspects Thinlomien. Why? He doesn’t say, but we know (from a further comment that’ll be brought up soon) that he does so because she suspected him on the first place. What kind of logic is that? I won’t deny that at times, people that go after you tend to look a bit more suspicious than the rest, but usually you need some other reason before you actually suspect them.


http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497003&postcount=38]Post 38[/URL]
Naria accuses CoD of being the cobbler. A rather likely proposition, that now we see is wrong. Yet, she has a point that CoD has been acting in a rather… strange fashion. She brings up a great point that, by hinting at seerdom, he’ll cast just that tiny bit of doubt in our minds that will most likely stop us from voting for him unless the evidence is clearly condemning. And let’s face it, other than the Seer saying so, there is no condemning evidence.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497007&postcount=39]Post 39[/URL]
Nogrod agrees on the possibility of CoD being the cobbler, and calls Naria on a somewhat confusing notion she brought up.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497012&postcount=40]Post 40[/URL]
CoD claims that Naria’s logic is flawed, and offers a “if I was…” post. I don’t usually like those posts, because the author can claim how he’d act as a wolf and then just act slightly differently. Why should we trust what he says about how he would act as a villain?

Furthermore, he again suspects those that suspect him. He’s changed the focus, no longer claiming to want to keep an eye on me and Durelin but just suspecting the ones that suspect him. Is he trying to intimidate them off his scent? That’s a rather wolfish technique, if you ask me.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497013&postcount=41]Post 41[/URL]
Volo makes the same point I made before. What about me and Durelin?

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497014&postcount=42]Post 42[/URL]
Our aristocrat defends himself by saying that he never suspected us, he just said that we deserved to be looked at. Then he claims that, unlike the ones he suspects, we have not accused him for being on character. Don’t worry CoD I still don’t suspect you for being on character, as you can see I suspect you for a dubious reasoning for suspecting people (specially when, as we’ll see soon, he stops suspecting Loomy once she drops her suspicions of him), for talking a lot and adding little (all this in character stuff is fun, I must admit, but you are not saying a whole lot) and perhaps most importantly, for being over-defensive. So far, all he’s done is defend himself and attack those that suspect him. Not to mention that seer hint…

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497019&postcount=44]Post 44[/URL]
Durelin gives a half-hearted defence of CoD claiming that there always is the possibility of a very misguided innocent. Then she shifts the sights on Ang whom we know now was an ordo.

Anyone else remembers that post where CoD is somewhat defending Durelin although he then distances himself from her by saying that you should keep an eye on her and me? Is that Durelin returning a favour…. Or perhaps is it that the werewolves have agreed on defending each other a little bit if possible?

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497020&postcount=45]Post 45[/URL]
Nogrod offers his views on several villagers and then says that CoD’s calmness speaks on his favour, although he still thinks that there is something wrong about him.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497021&postcount=46]Post 46[/URL]
Boromir says that it’s a pity that CoD mellowed down his ‘accusation’ against Durelin and I because that was the reason he did not suspect him, as he (Boromir) suspects us for our little interaction earlier on the day.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497028&postcount=49]Post 49[/URL]
CoD defends himself again, and defends his first post. He admits that he stopped looking at Durelin and I to defend himself better. Now I wonder, if he was truly on the village side and wanted us ordos to win, what’s the point on defending himself so stubbornly? At some point, you should try to add to the village discussion and prove your worth, rather than claim your worth and spend your time just protecting your own backside. In this case, it might even be a furry backside he’s trying to protect.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497038&postcount=52]Post 52[/URL]
Nogrod clarifies his accusation against CoD and calls him on the fact that CoD was asking for definitive evidence… on Day 1. A rare luxury, eh?.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497042&postcount=53]Post 53[/URL]
CoD goes ahead and votes for Loomy on the basis of her vote for him. This really smells like a retaliatory vote, and that’s bad… furthermore, it’s not like CoD had to vote early and so he had nothing to go on, other than the outrage of being voted at. He voted an hour before the deadline, so there had been plenty of conversation up until then.


http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497043&postcount=54]Post 54[/URL]
Rikae strolls in and votes for CoD on the basis of coblerishness. Sort of a weak post, I wouldn’t make much of it if it wasn’t because… Rikae is dead. Yeah, you could say “oh, it’s too bold a move for CoD to be a wolf” but come on… Rikae’s vote was as unexplained as possible. ANY half-witted werewolf can dance his way out of that situation. And we all know that CoD does not really like people who suspect him, don’t we. Rikae was both an easy target and a CoD voter. Good fit, anyone?


And that’s Day 1…. Let’s move on to the second day.

Here’s a post I find rather interesting.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497160&postcount=79]Post 79[/URL]
Now, this is a little bold for a wolf to do but… Durelin basically suspects and then “unsuspects” both Boromir and CoD. Boromir has defended CoD before, CoD has defended Durelin and Durelin has also defended CoD… interesting group of three villagers, eh? What? You mean that there is another group of three? A group that we are all looking for? Go figure…

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497164&postcount=81]Post 81[/URL]
CoD expresses his condolences about the death of Ang and proposes a rather far-fetched theory of why the wolves would kill Rikae. Says that he suspects Durelin. I think that it’s unlikely that the group of three I just mentioned are all wolves, as they seem to be fairly at each other’s throats, but they might just be taking a “high risk, high reward” approach.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497171&postcount=84]Post 84[/URL]
Durelin asks Boro and CoD to lay off her a bit. She might be an ordo after all, but I’m not so sure about the CoD and Boro tandem. She’s not off the hook, but as I mentioned right above, it might be a bit too risky an approach for a group of wolves to be all at each other’s throat.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497207&postcount=91]Post 91[/URL]
Loomy calls Cod on his “retaliatory” style of playing. She has a point, it seems that those who suspect CoD are suspected by him, and those who don’t are not. Will I be suspected now?

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497252&postcount=100]Post 100[/URL]
Nogrod says that CoD had looked less suspicious at first, but agrees with Loomy that his reasons for suspecting (and not suspecting) people are rather weak.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497266&postcount=104]Post 104[/URL]
Naria casts an unexplained vote for CoD

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497271&postcount=106]Post 106[/URL]
Loomy makes her point again of CoD’s flawed logic and his attempt (whether accidental or not) at a seer hint.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497276&postcount=110]Post 110[/URL]
CobleRune talks about his hunches…. Since he’s the cobbler, we should revert them, as odds are he’ll claim whoever he thinks is an ordo to be a wolf and vice-versa. Now, I am not saying he had any insider’s knowledge, all I’m saying is that he says that he thinks CoD is an ordo, thus he probably thinks he’s actually a wolf.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497277&postcount=111]Post 111[/URL]
CoD does not like Naria’s vote. Granted, it’s not explained what so ever… but she did vote for him of all people, and now it seems that he suspects her.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497281&postcount=113]Post 113[/URL]
Nogrod calls CoD again on his method of suspecting those that suspect him.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497285&postcount=115]Post 115[/URL]
Valier calls CoD on his constant flip-flopping of whom he suspects.

http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=497289&postcount=118]Post 118[/URL]
CoD defends himself from Valier’s comments and votes for Naria on the basis of… the two times she has accused him although the second time it had no reasoning behind it, which is a valid point. Yet, he (again) seems to be casting a retaliatory vote. On Day 2?! I don’t like them on Day 1, but now it’s just getting bad.

And that’s the end of Day 2.

Day 3 is upon us, I think that I’ll let you read through it and make your own decisions.

But, my thoughts on Day 3.

Valier has a point. One could say that Loomy’s point of view would be more correct, but there is one problem. More often than not, wolves will not kill someone who has just accused them if they think that person is the Seer. If Rune had turned out to be the seer, I would think that the wolves would have avoided killing him right there and then, because it would have meant the death of a wolvish Naria

Therefore I think that the wolves killed Rune because of his relative silence, and possibly to frame Naria as a side-effect. I don’t think they would have killed him if Naria was a wolf, because as I just said, that’d mean the death of Naria

By the way, Durelin, Boro and CoD keep on interacting… see post 142 by Durelin