Based upon several psuedo-scientific studies I have done, here are my findings.
We have 13 members here (including myself). 1 wolf was chosen randomly, another was hand-selected. Therefor we have the random probability and chosen probability respectively. The chosen probability consists of several factors including (though they may vary from applicability of one person to the the next)....What kind of wolf Fea would want, how long/short it's been since that person was a wolf last (if ever), the climate of their geographical location ('hot' weathered places people tend to be more easily angered/violent...thus more likely to be wolves than cold or mild weathered climates), the order and amount of posting, and the norms of the society a person lives in. Plus various other random factors. Therefor, stated below is the probability (random, chosen, and mean) of each villager (excluding myself):
Anguirel:
random: all palyers have the same chance of being the random chosen wolf...so 1/12 or 8.3%
fits some of the categories, like the kind of wolf Fea would want, lives in a hotter climate, also a hostile/traitorous society.
chosen: 87%
Mean: 47.65%
Diamond18:
random: 8.3%
chosen: fits nearly every criteria to a T...99.9%
Mean: 54.1%
Eomer:
random: 8.3%
chosen: high probablility of being picked by Fea, unpredictable behaviour...52.6%
Mean: 30.45%
Estelyn
random: 8.3%
chosen: Very pleasant personality and and a pleasant/idealistic location. She may be chosen by Fea for these reasons, so 22%
Mean: 15.15%
Kath
random: 8.3%
chosen: Nothing suspicious about the climate she lives, nor the persona of a werewolf. Much like Estelyn only even less probable at 15%
Mean: 11.65%
littlemanpoet
random: 8.3%
chosen: Lives in such a good environment and society of pleasantness...it's suspicious. Plus several other traits...84.7%
Mean: 46.5%
Mithalwen
random: 8.3%
chosen: Questionable/chaotic environment with all her secretive 'assignments.' Plus needs to redeem herself from past wolfing experiences. High probability of 92.3%
Mean: 50.3%
mormegil
random: 8.3%
chosen: Nice location...wish I was in Utah, although Nevada is better. Anyway, low probability of 12.67%
Mean: 10.485%
Nogrod
random: 8.3%
chosen: Would be a good wolf choice by Fea, and tough to nab him...other than that doesn't fit well into the other criteria...25%
Mean: 16.65%
Roa_Aoife
random: 8.3%
chosen: High likelihood...seems similar to Mithalwen so one or the other is likely a wolf....93%
Mean: 50.65%
the phantom:
random: 8.3%
chosen: says he isn't so...0%
Mean: 4.15% or virtually nil
The Saucepan Man
random: 8.3%
chosen: fits into some categories, not so good in other an even...50%
Mean: 29.15%
(note: there is a +/- 12.446% margin of error)
Based off these statitistics the highest wolf probabilities are:
Diamond
Roa
Mithalwen
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Fenris Penguin
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