First, some thoughts on morm’s death. It seems to me that he was an excellent Wolfish choice, as his limited participation, his vote for Boro and the fact that he attracted no votes himself left little in the way of a trail. It wouldn’t surprise me if both Wolves selected him. Unfortunately, for these reasons, I think that there is little to learn from his death.
So, I have been trying to work out what other factors may help us to find the Wolves. I came up with the following:
Day 1 behaviour: Would a Wolf have been loud or quiet on Day 1? My own view is that at least one Wolf would have been relatively quiet. With such a noisy village, the likelihood was that the loudest ones would end up at each other’s throats (which is more or less what happened), so (whatever direction the Dark Lady may have given them) there was no real need for the Wolves to stir things up further. I also think it more likely than not that both Wolves would have adopted this approach, as there has been no opportunity for them to coordinate and differentiate their behaviour.
Of course, in a village like this, there are no single-liner, one-post-a-day types. However, there are a number who kept a relatively low profile, and remained non-committal and relatively uncontroversial for much of the day. I have already identified those whom I think most exemplify this modus operandi:
Elempi,
Eomer and
Estelyn. I would add
Kath and, possibly,
Roa to the list but, although she was relatively quiet, exclude Mithalwen as her Bethberry vote was anything but uncontroversial.
I think overly loud behaviour was unlikely for a Wolf on Day 1 in this game. That applies to the phantom and, perhaps, Diamond.
The others fall in between.
Voting: Unfortunately, a vote for a known innocent tells us less than it would in a traditional game. For the record, those who voted for Boro fall within this category, namely
Esty and
Diamond (of those still living). From my perspective, Noggie also voted for a known innocent.
More important, perhaps, is the reasons given for the vote. Although, on Day 1, any reasoning was likely to be flimsy at best, I still think that a Wolf would have been more inclined to give a reason for their vote than not to do so, since unreasoned voting tends to attract unwelcome attention. Those who gave little or no reasoning for their vote were Anguirel, Diamond18, Eomer, Estelyn, Kath and the phantom. Those who attempted to provide reasoning were
Nogrod,
Elempi and
Roa (and myself). Mithalwen doesn’t really fall into either category, given her vote for a non-villager.
Wolfish/Un-Wolfish behaviour: This is a general category to catch anything which doesn’t fall into either of the above. Unsurprisingly, I haven’t seen anything (except in so far as addressed above) which I would consider to be particularly Wolfish. As for particularly un-Wolfish behaviour, I am thinking of things that would attract more attention than a Wolf would wish to attract on Day 1. The prime example is Mithalwen’s vote. I would also include the phantom’s general behaviour and (self-servingly
) my misconceived initial attempts at strategy.
Dark Lady’s likely Wolf choices: This is the only other factor that I can really come up with at the moment, and it seems that it probably applies only to one Wolf. My own thoughts are as follows (although I am open to suggestions/debate):
Likely candidates:
Diamond18,
Eomer,
Estelyn,
Elempi,
the phantom
Possible candidates: Anguirel, Kath, Mithalwen, Roa
Unlikely candidates: Nogrod, The Saucepan Man
I take the phantom’s point about him being too predictable/obvious, but I still think him a quite likely candidate.
Conclusion
Drawing from the above, my current thoughts are as follows:
Main suspect: Elempi
Quite suspicious: Roa, Eomer, Estelyn
Could go either way: Diamond, Kath, Anguirel
Tending to think innocent: the phantom, Mithalwen, Nogrod
Of course, I could be completely wrong, and usually am when I make these lists. And there's not exactly a great deal to go on at the moment. Still, that’s the way I’m currently thinking, based primarily on Day 1 reflections.
I’m going to look in more detail at what has happened so far today, but I probably won’t be back until much later on. Here’s a banker just in case:
++ littlemanpoet