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Something else:
If we lynch an innocent today, there will be (most probably) one innocent, two cobbler and a wolf left tomorrow. Village loses.
If we lynch the wolf, we win (naturally)
If we lynch a cobbler, we will probably have two innocents, a cobbler and a wolf tomorrow. With double lynchings, this is a fair chance.
What I'm saying is: If in doubt, go for the cobbler. Just don't lynch an innocent.
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