Sauron figured out where the Three Rings were first bestowed. Consider this passage from
Unfinished Tales, “The History of Galadriel and Celeborn”, “Concerning Galadriel and Celeborn”:
Quote:
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When Sauron learned of the repentance and revolt of Celebrimbor his disguise fell and his wrath was revealed... Celebrimbor ... himself withstood Sauron on the steps of the great door of the Mírdain; but he was ... taken captive, and the House was ransacked. There Sauron took the Nine Rings and other lesser works of the Mírdain; but the Seven and the Three he could not find. ...Celebrimbor was put to torment, and Sauron learned from him where the Seven were bestowed. ... the Three were made by Celebrimbor alone, with a different power and purpose. ... Concerning the Three Rings Sauron could learn nothing from Celebrimbor; and he had him put to death. But he guessed the truth, that the Three had been committed to Elvish guardians: and that must mean to Galadriel and Gil-galad.
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Celebrimbor delivered Nenya to Galadriel himself, and acting upon her advice, sent Gil-galad Vilya and Narya.
Gil-galad in turn gave Narya to Círdan, either immediately or when he set out for the War of the Last Alliance: Christopher Tolkien as editor of
Unfinished Tales says that in the text, Gil-galad gave Narya to Círdan right away, but a marginal note says that he kept it for most of the Second Age. Vilya he apparently kept until the War of the Last Alliance, when he gave it to Elrond.
The question might not be whether Sauron determined who had the Three during the Second Age, but who possessed them during the Third Age. Elrond, I suppose, is an easy guess; and after that, Círdan would be pretty easy, too, until one considers some of the powerful Noldorin Elves living in Rivendell, such as Glorfindel.