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Old 01-15-2007, 12:37 AM   #288
Durelin
Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
 
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Join Date: Oct 2002
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Durelin is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.Durelin is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.
Insanely long post... May want to just skip to my conclusions. I'll tell you this up here, though: this analysis has helped me organize my own thoughts, and strengthened my opinions. I am going to have to keep assuming Ang innocent. If he is a Wolf, he is far too good of one than I could ever even expect him to be. And I am going to continue with my top suspects, as I realize once again I'm not the only one who has been continually troubled by them.

No, there are no links really. Why? Because it's nearly 2 am here. I am not making links till 3.

Just to add on one thing to what you already did for Day 1: Ang returns right before the deadline, and wonders about Volo's flower motif, and then wonders how Spawn ended up with two votes. (I never really paid much attention to that...spawn died that Night. Were the Wolves trying to frame Ang?)

Day 2

He finds Volo a suspect, finding his mentioning of a Twin hint in one of dancing spawn's posts a possible gloat. Says Volo's Eomer vote does not mean much, but he does suspect him. (I beg to differ on that - he knew that those around at that time apparently felt, or seemed to feel, that they should all cooperate. But everyone was hesitating on voting...then Volo votes for Eomer, and it stacks up against him from there.)

Says that Valier's "elusiveness" worries him, even though he knows she's sick. (I agreed, and still do.) Determines that perhaps it isn't a bad idea to go back to suspicions of Day 1, and so is tempted to vote for Kitanna. He misses the vote. (That seems rather innocent to me. He doesn't try terribly hard to give an excuse, and yet he draws attention to the fact that he did not vote. If he was a Wolf, he would have been sneakier about it...or he would have been more likely not to miss the vote at all.)

Day 3

He wonders if Kitanna was right about fearing Boro. Thinks Nogrod opened the way to Lommy voting for Kitanna. Is troubled by Volo's "such wolves are for the Seer to catch" comment about Nogrod and Boro. Suggests the possibility of the Nogrod, Boro, Volo trio.

Defends himself and his criticism of the lynching of innocents, as it was suggested by Boro that he did this to make himself look better.

"The wolves' most deadly weapon, my friends, is consensus." Draws a parallel between one of Boro's posts and one of Volo's, saying that "Unintentionally or through ingenious subtlety, these two players here both encourage a kind of defeatism, suggesting that certain suspects are off-limits, not to be worried about, safe to assume about. That worries me."

Proposes there should be a closer look at Holby. Says he intends to vote for Volo. Thinks Boro is probably innocent.

Defends himself for the same things as before. Does not like focus on same people, same ideas, "consensus." Menel follows up with a screamingly duelist post, Ang reiterates.

Sparring with Boro.

Asks Nogrod questions.

Analyzes Holby HERE. << I think this is good to look at. He concludes she is likely innocent.

Nogrod suspicion... Has an issue with the idea of the "valuable villager," finds it possible that Nogrod and Boro had a "phoney war."

Expresses that the Seer might be in great danger, and we cannot rely on him/her.

Votes Nogrod.

Remarks about Nog and Boro's "love-hate"ness. Predicts Kath is innocent to annoy everyone (at least Boro in particular) further.

ToDay, Day 4

Feels like a fool. (Not alone in that one!) Thinks Boro might have been killed because the Wolves thought he might be the Seer. Says it's interesting to note that Menel was one of Boro's main targets.

Says he is especially suspicious of Menel and Rune, for trying to keep the suspicion on the "big three."

Suspicion of Rune increases, and Volo and Lommy get added to his list, somewhat by association. Says he's still "unsettled by" Menel.

Says he does not suspect Durelin much, or Valier or Nilp.

Defense in response to Volo's start on an analysis. Just read it.

Sugests that Volo stop focusing so much of his attention on him. Replaces Volo on his supect list with Holby because of her comment on Nogrod and Boro being duelling innocents. (So? I thought them to be innocent, too. But then again, I could be in cahoots with Holby, couldn't I?)



Quote:
Originally Posted by Ang
Bomburlass - concision, typical inconspicuousness and seems to know a little too much.

Beorn - formed general alliance with Bofgrod and played something of a second fiddle in accusing me, from my point of view a known innocent. Nailed Eomi's coffin early on. A combination with Bomburlass would indicate a sly wolf-for-wolf vote at one point...hmmm. (Yes, Voloin, I intend to keep saying hmmm. Ha.)

Meneltarbo/Rune - I tend to think that one of these excludes the other, but can't quite decide on which of them looks more wolvish.
And here's my response to you, Ang:

Alright, I know we're into this giving up on the old, tired out suspicions, but you said so yourself, when you began considering voting for Kitanna, that going back to original suspicions might be a good idea. Well, for how long has Volo been discussed seriously as a Wolf? Might it be time to actually back up all our talking with a vote? I am incredibly guilty of not doing this, but I don't think I'm the only one.

I say it again, and I say this to everyone: there are three wolves left alive. We've thought on more than one occasion that we had a crafty Wolf, one hidden under so much that it took some brilliant induction to find him/her. But we haven't found one yet, have we? So why don't we go with what is right before our eyes, what we've been looking at all along... Forget about all the possibilities, and all the intricate ways you can connect people together and to wolfishness. There are too many ways.

Ask yourself, and not just because your therapist tells you to: Who have you consistently felt uneasy about?

For me, it's been Volo and Menel more than anyone else...because I always find Wolfishness about them, but then end up voting for someone else because I think what I see is too "obvious" to be true wolfishness. But everyone knows that things hiding in plain sight are the hardest to find when you expect them to be hiding!
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