First, some replies that I didn't have time for at the end of yesterday.
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Originally Posted by mith
Wolves will usually refrain from killing an ordinary innocent who is garnering suspicion since it indeed shields them and they aren't going to waste a night kill on someone who they have a chance of getting lynched. However I would be astonished is wolves let anyone they suspected of being a gifted survive - unless it was the Hunter.
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While what you say is true, I believe you completely missed my point. Yes, the wolves will kill anyone they suspect of giftedness. HOWEVER, they can't tell a gifted from a particularly suspicious innocent any better than we can tell a suspiciously acting gifted from a wolf. (And as was demonstrated yesterday, that's very difficult.)
THE WOLVES DO NOT KNOW WHO THE GIFTED ARE. (Except when the gifted reveal themselves.) They can't. All they have is a best guess and gamble- is this villager a gifted and thus good for us to kill, or just an ordo we could be using for lynch bait tomorrow? Every suspicious ordo they kill removes one more villager for them to hide behind. Not to mention the trails that more vocal of us tend to leave. (One reason I dislike quietness so much- a quiet ordo leaves no trail when dead.)
Honestly, I don't know why we're even disagreeing over this- it's common sense, and we're both saying the same thing, but from different angles.
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Originally Posted by Nogrod
I'm a bit puzzled by the way Roa has played toDay. I mean she seems to defend me in every corner. That makes one uneasy. Or maybe she's using me just as her hobby-horse to go after Spm? Anyhow that I need to think toMorrow if I'm still around.
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To be honest, it's quite closer to the later. As SPM said himself, the analysis of words is how wolves are caught. When I returned in the second half of the day, I set about summarizing every post that was made, and adding brief thoughts on it. (You saw the results of that in my analysis that I posted yesterday.) Why just three? Those were the top three that caught my interest. (Okay, I analyzed Nogrod out of force of habit.) When I could find nothing against you, (and I can usually find something against anyone) I saw the charges against you as being nothing more than huffing and puffing.
At first I thought Manwe was more suspicious for it- he had no backing, his case was truly coming out of thin air, and he was being pretty dogged about it. He was so desperate for people to stick blame to that he grabbed onto Kitanna, though she had done the opposite of what he accused her of. But then I analyzed SPM. SPM is arguably one of the best players in this game. And yet, here he was, latching onto a newbies baseless case, and even trying to bolster it with carefully worded propaganda. So in a way, I was "using you" to "get" SPM, in the sense that I found his case against you to be the most suspicious thing of the Day, and I am almost thuroughly convinced that he is a Faithful who wanted to look helpful, and latched onto the suspicion of a prominent and dangerous player. At the end, he even backed down and voted for his conveniently placed other "suspect," who was much closer to lynching.
And Oh, look! She the seer! Whoops. Pretty silly of you, SPM.
Too bold for a wolf? Depends on the wolf, and somehow I doubt that SPM could be anything but bold. (He's way too active and influencial.)
And do I believe Nogrod is innocent? Not unless Rikae dreamed of him and says so. I just think the case against him was pure fabrication.
There were three bandwagons yesterday, for Rikae, Garin, and Manwe. I'll be looking at the voters for Rikae first, and then Manwe, but I'd appreciate it if someone else looks at the Garin bandwagon. (I'm in it, afterall.) Or perhaps, multiple people...
Also, Rikae, if you would be so kind as to let us know what you know. Hopefully, you can clear up the messy Manwe question.