[The Saucepan Man]

Here's the Day 1 voting record:

Durelin: ++Manwe (Manwe 1)
Rikae: ++Manwe (Manwe 2)
Manwe: ++Nogrod (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1)
Lommy: ++Rikae (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 1)
Garin: ++Nogrod (Manwe 2, Nogrod 2, Rikae 1)
Garin: - - Nogrod, ++Rikae (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 2)
Brinniel: ++Rikae (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 3)
TGWBS: ++Garin (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 3, Garin 1)
Roa: ++SpM (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 3, Garin 1, SpM 1)
Kitanna: ++Garin (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 3, Garin 2, Spm 1)
Rune: ++Garin (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 3, Garin 3, Spm 1)
SpM: ++Rikae (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 3, Spm 1)
Hookbill: ++Manwe (Manwe 3, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 3, Spm 1)
Holby: ++Garin (Manwe 3, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 4, Spm 1)
Lalaith: ++Holby (Manwe 3, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 4, Spm 1, Holby 1)

Rikae reveals

Durelin: --Manwe, ++Garin (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 5, Spm 1, Holby 1)
Roa: --SpM, ++Garin (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 6, Holby 1)
Legate: ++Manwe (Manwe 3, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 6, Holby 1)
Mithalwen: ++Lalaith (Manwe 3, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 6, Holby 1, Lalaith 1)
Nogrod: ++Manwe (Manwe 4, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 6, Holby 1, Lalaith 1)
Lalaith: --Holby, ++Manwe (Manwe 5, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 6, Lalaith 1)

Did not vote: Kath, Glirdan, Gil-Galad, The Might

Manwe voters: Durelin (retracted), Rikae, Hookbill, Legate, Nogrod, Lalaith

If my hunch is correct that Manwe is innocent and the Faithfuls saw him as presenting himself as an easy target in the early stages (both big “ifs”, admittedly), then Durelin’s early vote, which she only changed after Rikae declared, is a matter for concern. I am not sure that she needed to make such an early vote, since she was present for much of the latter part of the Day. Possibly, therefore, a Faithful Durelin was testing the waters for a possible lynch campaign against Manwe. There was little in the way of reasoning, as it was based upon Manwe’s “in-character-banter” and style. It was Day 1, admittedly, but it seems rather early to have been voting for a “newbie” just because of his style.

I think it worth noting that Rune was the first to cast doubt on Manwe, and Kitanna expressed early suspicions of him too, again because of his style and also for that early accusation of Nogrod, Roa, Kitanna and me (which I am inclined to see as a tactic). Both later changed tack, possibly because support for his lynching was not gathering as much ground as expected. On reflection, this might be regarded as more suspicious, certainly more cautious, than an early vote for him, since a vote is more likely to attract attention.

One cautionary note on the rationale behind these thoughts. They are predicated on Manwe's innocence. While I still think that Manwe has been talking more sense than many are giving him credit for, it does seem to me that he has given very little indication as to who he thinks the Faithfuls might be, after that early four-way accusation. It is possible that, after that early boldness, he has been advised by Faithful friends to tone it down a bit.

As for the later votes for Manwe, these came after Rikae has declared. These were from Legate, Nogrod and a last minute switch from Lalaith. I am curious as to why Legate decided to vote for Manwe rather than Garin, since Garin was on 6 and Manwe on 2 at the time, and so a vote for Garin surely stood a better chance of ensuring Rikae's safety (plus, to my mind, he looked the more suspicious).

Lalaith's late switch to Manwe is notable too. Given that Garin was the more likely by then to be lynched, it might be regarded as relatively "safe".

Rikae voters: Lommy, Brinniel, SpM, Garin

I can understand the early votes for Rikae, as Rikae most definitely looked suspicious (to me, anyway) at the time. The later votes came from me and Garin, both of whom I know to be innocent. So, there's not a lot that I can draw from these votes. They were certainly not "safe", as Rikae was under a fair bit of suspicion at that stage.

Garin voters: TGWBS, Kitanna, Rune, Holby, Durelin, Roa

This is difficult since, although he was innocent, Garin certainly presented himself as an easy target with his own manner of voting. It is quite likely that one, possibly two, of the Faithfuls seized on this. In that regard, I find the votes of TGWBS, Rune and Kitanna to be the more suspicious, as they came before Rikae’s reveal. As noted above, Rune and Kitanna had both withdrawn from earlier mild accusations against Manwe.

Durelin’s switch from Manwe to Garin is of interest as it quickly followed Rikae’s declaration, and so disregarded further consideration over possible alternatives.

Others:

Manwe for Nogrod - I don’t find this overly suspicious, as I too was concerned about Nogrod on Day 1. That said, it was early, and based, as far as I can see, solely on Noggie’s comments on Glirdan. Not a particularly “safe” vote, but supported only by minimal evidence (even by Day 1 standards).

Lalaith for Holby (retracted) - This looks like the “safest” vote of the Day to me as Holby had not been under serious supicion and was very unlikely, at that point, to be lynched. I don’t really understand her reasoning either. She refers to an “in-character” comment made by Holby in her first post as a possible message from a Cobbler to the Faithfuls. That looks to me to be very weak grounds for a vote. And why was she trying to lynch the Cobbler at that stage when she should have been hunting Were-Faithfuls? Decidedly suspicious. And not necessarily redeemed by her late switch to Manwe which, as I have noted, might also be regarded as "safe".

Mithalwen for Lalaith - I can understand why she would vote for Lalaith, given how odd Lalaith’s vote looked and she was also, I think, slightly miffed over Lalaith having picked her up on her first post comment. But, at this point, Garin was on 6 and Rikae on 4, with four left to vote (excluding The Might) and possible further switches, Rikae’s survival was by no means guaranteed. Despite having good reason (for Day 1) for voting for Lalaith, I would have thought that securing Rikae’s survival was a more important consideration. It might also be regarded as a “safe” vote, given that Lalaith was in no danger of being lynched.

I’m not setting too much store by the “did not votes”, given the explanations on the Admin thread, at this stage at least.

Since I should have been abed hours ago, Day 2 will have to wait. For now, though, here’s the voting record:

Gil-Galad: ++SpM (SpM 1)
Lommy: ++TGWBS (SpM 1, TGWBS 1)
Brinniel: ++Legate (SpM 1 TGWBS 1, Legate 1)
SpM: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 1, Roa 1)
Lalaith: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 1, Roa 2)
Rune: ++Legate (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 2)
Kath: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 3)
Roa: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4)
Mithalwen: ++SpM (SpM 2, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4)
TGWBS: ++Brinniel (SpM 2, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4, Brinniel 1)
Roa: --Roa, ++SpM (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 3, Brinniel 1)
Durelin: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4, Brinniel 1)
Manwe: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 5, Brinniel 1)
Legate: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 6, Brinniel 1)
Rikae: ++Mithalwen (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 6, Brinniel 1, Mithalwen 1)
Nogrod: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 7, Brinniel 1, Mithalwen 1)
Rikae: --Mithalwen, ++Legate (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 3, Roa 7, Brinniel 1)

Did not vote: Kitanna, Glirdan, Hookbill