I am not sure how much help this is going to be, given the way that the Day went, but there might be something here.
Here's the voting record again, for ease of reference:
Gil-Galad: ++SpM (SpM 1)
Lommy: ++TGWBS (SpM 1, TGWBS 1)
Brinniel: ++Legate (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 1)
SpM: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 1, Roa 1)
Lalaith: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 1, Roa 2)
Rune: ++Legate (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 2)
Kath: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 3)
Roa: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4)
Mithalwen: ++SpM (SpM 2, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4)
TGWBS: ++Brinniel (SpM 2, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4, Brinniel 1)
Roa: --Roa, ++SpM (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 3, Brinniel 1)
Durelin: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4, Brinniel 1)
Manwe ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 5, Brinniel 1)
Legate: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 6, Brinniel 1)
Rikae: ++Mithalwen (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 6, Brinniel 1, Mithalwen 1)
Nogrod: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 7, Brinniel 1, Mithalwen 1)
Rikae: --Mithalwen, ++Legate (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 3, Roa 7, Brinniel 1)
Did not vote: Glirdan, Hookbill, Kitanna
Roa voters: SpM, Lalaith, Kath, Roa (retracted), Durelin, Manwe, Legate, Nogrod
As I have said, I believe that lynching Roa was our best option for the Day. I still don't understand the reasoning that says it is better to vote for someone who is something like 75% likely to be innocent, when a vote can be cast for someone who is 99.9% likely to be the Cobbler. Maybe it is just my conservative nature ...
Incidentally, Mith, the possibility of lynching Glirdy did not occur to me either, but wasn’t there still a possibility that he would be given a reprieve?
That said, given the numbers, it is extremely unlikely that there were no Faithfuls among those that voted for Roa. Despite contributing to the loss of their Cobbler, a vote for Roa would have been a “safe” vote. It was always a likely outcome, so I would expect them to have placed their votes relatively early, where they could hope to gain some credit, but could still retract if necessary. In this regard, the votes of Lalaith and Kath look to me to be the most likely Faithful-on-Cobbler votes. Durelin’s vote is also a possibility.
SpM voters: Gil-Galad, Roa, Mithalwen
Well, I don’t like Gil’s reasoning (such as it is), but there’s not much more to say on his vote other than that. Gil has said precious little to judge him by, but he always plays like that, guilty or innocent. I am not sure what to do about him. On the one hand, I rather agree with whoever said that our situation is rather too precarious to go off on a “lynch the silent ones” campaign. On the other hand, there is something like a 1 in 4 chance that he’s a Faithful.
As I indicated earlier, I am wary of Mith’s attempts to prevent Roa’s lynching and I don’t like the reasons she put forward for me being the alternative (the “quibble” and my vote for Roa). That said, I do think that she was being far more obvious in trying to save Roa than I would expect a Faithful would be.
Legate voters: Brinniel, Rune, Rikae
Of those who did not vote for Roa, I find those who were not overtly pushing for her to be saved the more suspicious. I don’t fully understand the suspicion of Legate, as the evidence seems a bit thin. It seems to amount to no more than his intervention in the Hookbill/Brinniel episode (which I think really amounted to much fuss and bother over nothing) and the fact that he has been “reasonable“. Brinniel also didn’t like the fact that Legate found her suspicious, and thought it odd? Why? It is the most natural thing in the world, in a game of Werewolf, to be found suspicious, even when innocent. It happens to us all!
Both Brinniel and Rune appear to have thought it more likely than not that Roa was lying, and yet voted for someone who might be guilty or might be innocent, seemingly on very little evidence. I am fairly sure that one of these two is a Faithful. Possibly, they both are, given that Rune has said on a number of occasions that he finds Brinniel suspicious, but has never voted for her. Possibly, Legate and one of these two are Faithfuls, since, with Roa the most likely to be lynched, this would have been a good time for a Faithful-on-Faithful vote. I am inclined, at present, to think Legate innocent, though.
Others:
Lommy for TGWBS - Thin grounds (no pun intended
). TGWBS had suggested taking account of the fact that Nogrod and Rikae were known (or almost certain, in Rikae’s case) innocents, and that their thoughts were therefore the only ones (other than our own) we could be sure were untainted. That seems to be an entirely reasonable proposition to me, and yet she voted yesterDay on the basis of it. That and the fact that she found TGWBS was being “careful“, a conveniently vague and unsubstantiated statement. Also, she appears to have accepted that Roa was the Cobbler, yet gave no thought to voting for her.
TGWBS for Brinniel - I don’t like the way that TGWBS was trying to persuade the village not to vote for Roa, and in a more subtle manner than Mith. Yet, it was still a risky strategy for a Faithful. His vote for Brinniel is reasoned on both he and Rikae finding her suspicious. Not sure, but I don’t find anything overly suspicious about this vote, other than the fact that it was not for Roa.
I agree with Mith that looking at Roa’s analyses with “eyes wide open” might well be productive, and I am wary of those who have suggested otherwise. I will try to do so later. TGWBS’ simple “reverse psychology” approach is just that - too simple. However, I do believe that she thought Nogrod to be a Faithful and me to be an innocent (so she got one thing right
). Other than that, I suspect that she that she is unlikely to have wanted to draw much attention to any she thought were Faithfuls.