Well, I have spent much time going back over everything that has happened. My thoughts on each villager (except Nogrod, obviously) are below. Note that this is not a blow-by-blow account, but only picks up on things I thought worth noting and includes my own thoughts on them (where I have any
).
Since I was going through, I have summarised what Roa and Rikae said about everyone, for what it’s worth.
Brinniel
Day 1 - Opening post emphasis her “newbie” status, but says little. Subsequently gets into the nonsense exchange with Hookbill which was based on nought but banter. Votes Rikae.
Day 2 - Becoming suspicious of Hookbill, because of his continued references to poor judgment and having little clue. I find Hookbill’s behaviour in this regard strange too, and it leads me to think slightly better of Brinniel. Votes Legate.
Roa expresses mild suspicion, but neutral overall.
Rikae didn’t think her very suspicious.
Durelin
Day 1 - Opening post takes a long time to say little, other than to stir comment on some evolving issues. Jumps on Rune’s suspicions of Manwe and votes for him. Later says she is unsure about Manwe, but nevertheless sticks with her vote until after Rikae declares. And the switch to Garin is very quick upon the tails of Rikae’s revelation. Jokey style is typical for her, although she is coming across as somewhat overly cheery at times. I have never experienced her as a Wolf, but she has been a cunning Cobbler in the past.
Day 2 - Early suspicion of Manwe, based on his criticism of Roa’s analyses. Otherwise, says a lot without saying much. Seems to embrace Roa’s analyses alarmingly enthusiastically (although Roa was an unknown quantity, and this is one of Roa‘s strengths). Later, after Roa is revealed, she looks to see if there might be any leads in Roa’s analyses, which I was in favour of doing. Feels Hookbill, Lommy and Brinniel to be a bit forced. Ponders voting for Legate on the basis of Roa’s analysis of him, but votes for Roa on the basis that having a known Cobbler around can be nasssty.
Roa expresses some suspicion of her.
Rikae thought she felt innocent.
Gil-Galad
…! I have already said about as much as there is about him.
Roa more or less neutral. What else could she be?
Rikae thought him an unknown quantity. Ditto.
the guy who be short
Day 1 - Opening post gets right down to the business of airing suspicions, putting pressure on the quiet, which I rather like. Makes an early list of suspicions which, again, I quite like. Isn’t afraid to say where he stands, so I find it difficult to understand why some are saying that he seems careful. However, I have noted the “easy” Day 1 vote for Garin.
Day 2 - Following Rikae’s revelation of her dreams, recommends taking good notice of the thoughts of the two known innocents. As I have said, I find this an entirely reasonable proposition. Looks at Lalaith, Mith and Brinniel, finding only the latter suspicious (and later votes for her). While I was (and still am) all for taking account of Roa’s analyses, his “meta-analysis” approach looks far too simplistic. When challenged on it (by Mith), he concedes that the Faithful are more likely to be among those that Roa did not focus on too much. Not sure what to make of this, as I somewhat agree with the conclusion that he came to, but the original analysis rings slight alarm bells. Urges the village not to lynch Roa, which I have already commented on.
Roa expressed some suspicion.
Rikae thought him moderately suspicious, for being careful and appearing to be helpful.
Hookbill the Goomba
Day 1 - Opening post says nothing. Following posts are largely jokey and insubstantial, save for a slight dig at Manwe for possibly thinking me the Seer and revealing it. Seems to say that he has no idea and claims poor judgment a lot. Ummed and ahhed over Manwe before voting for him.
Day 2 - Still saying that he has nothing much to go on and claiming not to be very good at the game. Like some others, I am slightly wary of this, but I am inclined to give him a chance to get more involved. Did not vote, but has explained that.
Roa was (very) mildly suspicious of him.
Rikae thought him moderately suspicious, for seeming slippery and uninvolved.
Kath
Day 1 - Opening post says little, except how the numbers favour us. Next, merely a commentary, other than to say Manwe and Hookbill didn’t look suspicious, but that Legate was worryingly calm. Did not vote but, again, this has been explained.
Day 2 - Focussed mainly on the Roa/Rikae issue, thinking through various scenarios, and ended up voting for Roa.
Roa expresses mild suspicion.
Rikae seems to have thought her more likely innocent than guilty.
Kitanna
Day 1 - Opening post says little other than to defend Glirdan. Then gets on to Manwe’s case, for the bold accusation. Later withdraws from that and says little, other than raising mild suspicions, and goes for the “easy” Garin vote.
Day 2 - Spent a lot of time grappling with the Roa/Rikae issue, rather than looking at others. A lot of people were doing this - it was Roa’s intention that we did so - so I’m not setting much store by it. Did not vote, but it looks, from what she says, like she would probably have voted for Roa.
Roa expressed suspicion.
Rikae thought her suspicious for being safe and seemingly flying under the radar.
Lalaith
Day 1 - The point she raised about Mith’s opening post, with which I rather agreed, has been discussed at length. Also expressed confusion over the roles in her first post, which could have been deliberate, particularly as she is a seasoned player. Next post is her strange, and seemingly very safe vote for Holby, upon which I have already commented.
Day 2 - Proposed looking at the Garin “bandwaggon“. Fair enough since, while Garin presented himself an easy target, I suspect that at least one Faithful jumped at it. Then again, all the votes were worth looking at, not just those for Garin. Some confusion over whether Rikae was protected and whether the Faithful went for her. Otherwise, does little more than assess the Rikae/Roa situation and vote for Roa.
Roa called her “very odd” and said she thought she merited further scrutiny.
Rikae thought her sincere.
Legate of Amon Lanc
Day 1 - Opening post wordy, as are most of his posts, but that seems to be his style. Described Manwe as “harsh” and said that, while it didn’t prove him a Faithful, if he was not, he was making a mess by making accusations out of nowhere. I think that Legate was over-reacting, because accusations out of nowhere are quite standard for Day 1, but I also think he was still finding his feet (which could go either way). Took the exchange between Brinniel and Hookbill a little seriously, but I don’t find his attempt to mediate particularly suspicious. Still slightly curious as to why he voted for Manwe rather than Garin following Rikae’s revelation.
Day 2 - His first post of the Day does seem to find it difficult to see people as suspicious, which was the point that Brinniel made that I misread. His later contributions are after Rikae’s dream reveal, and he votes for Roa. For all his words, he doesn’t really seem to say much, so I’m slightly more uncomfortable about now him than I was.
I’m also slightly disconcerted by the admiration which Roa expresses for him. Not sure what it means, but I doubt that she would have so obviously embraced one she thought to be a Faithful.
Rikae thought him moderately suspicious, but ended up switching her vote from Mith to vote for him. I have no idea what to make of that. Although it seems to have been aimed at preventing Roa being lynched, it was rather late in the Day.
Mänwe
Day 1 - Early “fisherman” banter - confusing style - but I agree with much of what he says. Aggressive early attack on Nogrod and Roa particularly, and also Kitanna and me. Looks to me to be a tactic to provoke reaction.
Continues to cross swords with Roa on Day 2, though without giving much away concerning his own thoughts. Indeed, he seems rather to encourage the confusion over Roa’s continuing participation more than anything else.
Roa attacked him, although not as much as she did me, and declared him either the Cobbler or a Faithful. I think it most likely she thought him innocent.
Rikae described him as disturbing, but seeming a bit like an “innocent Morm”.
Mithalwen
Day 1 - That comment in her opening post has been discussed enough. Other than that, said little during Day 1 other than to express a few mild suspicions, mainly for Lalaith, engage in a bit of to’ing and fro’ing in the hullaballoo following Rikae’s declaration and then vote for her. The vote for Lalaith, when Rikae was still possibly in danger, was odd, but Rikae was unlikely to receive any more votes by then (other than from a suicidal Faithful), I suppose.
Day 2 - Spends most of her time urging that we not lynch Roa, and suggesting me as an alternative. I have already commented on that.
Roa expressed mild suspicion.
Rikae thought her to be a Faithful.
Rune Son of Bjarne
Day 1 - Opening post says that little jumps to his attention! On the contrary, I think it was possibly the most eventful opening to Day 1 ever. Kicks off the case against Manwe. Then says he is confused and adds little, other than expressing mild suspicion of Holby and saying he thought Hookbill innocent. Main suspects were Manwe, Legate and Brinniel but took the easy option offered up unwittingly by Garin.
Day 2 - Continuing suspicion of Legate and Brinniel. I’ve commented on his vote for Legate, despite feeling better about him and despite thinking Roa was most likely lying, above.
Roa expressed some suspicion, and he capitulated to her analysis. I remember thinking that odd when I read it.
Rikae wasn’t sure on him.
Thinlómien
Day 1 - Opening post immediately jumps to Lalaith’s defence, even though Lalaith was not really under much suspicion. Hmmm … Commentary on some of the events, but nothing firm (other than possibly stirring the pot against Noggie). Later concern about Rikae and Durelin being too eager to accuse Manwe. Votes Rikae.
Day 2 opening post doesn’t say much, but expresses “vague” suspicion of Durelin, Brinniel and Kitanna. Also keeping an eye on Nogrod and I. Late elaborates on her concerns over Nogrod by reference to his mistaken assumption that the Ranger had protected, and saved, someone other than Rikae. This looks strange to me, as I see nothing sinister in Nogrod’s mistake. It was a strange point to pick up on. Agrees with Brinniel about Hookbill acting strangely, says she thinks his comments about confusion seem sincere, but notes he could be using that. Long post looking at the Day 1 posts doesn’t really add much, but she takes the opportunity to defend Lalaith’s vote (hmmm … again). Attacks TGWBS’s suggestion that we take good notice of the two known innocents and bases her vote on this - I have already noted that I find this this vote suspicious.
Roa was neutral about her.
Rikae thought her to be giving of a “faithful-ish vibe” and was suspicious of her, mainly for seemingly being eager to toss suspicion around.
Further thoughts coming up …