The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

**The Saucepan Man** · 03-04-2007, 08:42 AM

Lunch over.

So here, as promised, is my analysis of the Day 3 votes

TGWBS: Voted for Brinniel on the basis that she was neither for nor against lynching Roa. Subsequently switched to Manwe on the basis that he thought him trying to sow seeds of doubt in the villager’s mind about Rikae. I don’t find the switch particularly suspicious, as there was little suggestion at the time that Brinniel would end up being lynched. However, I am rather dubious about his reasoning for voting for Manwe. Manwe was strongly in favour of lynching Roa because he thought that she was lying, but thought it was also a good idea even admitting the small possibility that she was not. I rather agree with his (Manwe’s) reasoning. I still have some suspicion of TGWBS, because I am concerned that he may have been twisting Manwe‘s words here.

Kitanna: Voted for Hookbill for seeming to hide behind a “mask of newbieness” and consistently claiming to be a bad judge of character. I cannot fault her reasoning, as I am uneasy about Hookbill for the same reason. However, Hookbill is one of those who has been bubbling under in the village’s suspicions, but with little prospect of attracting too many votes. And, despite being plagued by blizzards, there was always a possibility that she could return and switch her vote, if necessary. I have concerns that Kitanna may well be a "slip under the radar" Faithful and, of all the Day's votes, this one looks the safest Faithful vote to me. It may even have been a Faithful-on-Faithful vote.

Kath: Voted for Rune for safe voting and for casting suspicion without much reasoning. I found Rune suspicious for much the same reason. She put Rune ahead here, with 2 votes, and, in light of her vote, I doubt that a Faithful Kath would have advocated killing Rune in the Night. Also, she gives a long analysis of all the villagers and states where she stand with each one before voting, which makes me feel better about her. Inclined to think her innocent at present.

Mithalwen: Voted for Lalaith on the basis of previously stated suspicions, and then switches to Brinniel because she thought her more suspicious than Rune. Her vote for Lalaith was not particularly safe, given that there was a fair amount of suspicion around Lal at the time. I am concerned about the bandwaggon that suddenly gathered around Brinniel at the end, although I am not sure that a Faithful would have had much to gain by being included in it. That said, whoever speculated that the Brinniel voters had good reason to kill Rune in the Night had a good point and I do think that there was one Faithful, possibly two, among the last minute Brinniel voters. I don’t, however, think it was Mith, as she has not been acting like I would expect a Faithful Mith to act.

Durelin: Voted for Rune on the basis that he was her original suspect of the Day and she had “seen this kind of Rune before”, putting him 2 votes ahead of anyone else. I do find Durelin suspicious and her run-in with Nogrod earlier toDay does not reassure me, as it may have been a Faithful attempt to associate herself with an innocent. Like Kath, I do wonder whether a Faithful Durelin would have been so bold as to kill Rune in the Night, after this vote. That said, if there was a Faithful among the Rune voters, I think this to be the one. Still looking very suspicious to me.

Lalaith: Voted for Brinniel, bringing her to 2 votes. She said that she didn’t much like the choices, but that it was a toss-up between Brinniel and Manwe as she didn’t find Rune suspicious. Now, there was inevitably a bit of confusion surrounding these last minute votes and switches. But this was the vote that started the slide towards Brinniel’s lynching. As such, it looks more suspicious to me than those which came later. I also don’t really like the comment about disliking the choices. It may well have been intended to give the option of distancing herself from the situation if Brinniel was lynched and found innocent (as happened). Lalaith remains high in my suspicions.

Lommy: Voted for Brinniel, saying that, of those she found suspicious, only she could be lynched. Much the same applies as with regard to Lalaith above. I am certain that either Lalaith or Lommy is a Faithful and, since they have both been defending each other every so often, I wonder whether they both might be. If so, both voting for Brinniel at this stage was dangerous but, given the timing, it may well have been a cross-post and retracting would have looked even more suspicious.

Legate: Voted for Brinniel, although I am not entirely sure from his reasoning why. This followed an analysis of each villager. My concerns over Legate yesterDay were based on the fact that he seems to say a lot without saying much. His analysis does not ease my concerns in that regard. His vote for Brinniel was a cross-post so, if he is a Faithful, he may have unintentionally voted here with one of his friends. Still looking suspicious to me.

Hookbill: Voted for Manwe because of a hunch that he was untrustworthy, putting him on 3 votes. Given the confusion, I am not sure that this was the safe vote it might otherwise seem (Brinniel was on 5 votes at the time). That said, I remain suspicious that he has given very little away about what he thinks and has voted for Manwe on both Days that he has voted without really giving any solid reasons. I am still wary of him.

Based on that and my previous thinking, my current list is as follows:

Suspicious
Lalaith
Durelin
Lommy
Kitanna

Somewhat suspicious
TGWBS
Hookbill
Legate

No idea
Gil-Galad

Inclined to think innocent
Manwe
Kath
Mithalwen

Innocent
Nogrod

Does anyone know if Manwe is still playing? I missed all the furore on the Admin thread. Even if not, I guess we won’t know his innocence or guilt until toNight? Mac?

03-04-2007, 08:42 AM	#459
The Saucepan Man Corpus Cacophonous Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: A green and pleasant land Posts: 8,390	Lunch over. So here, as promised, is my analysis of the Day 3 votes TGWBS: Voted for Brinniel on the basis that she was neither for nor against lynching Roa. Subsequently switched to Manwe on the basis that he thought him trying to sow seeds of doubt in the villager’s mind about Rikae. I don’t find the switch particularly suspicious, as there was little suggestion at the time that Brinniel would end up being lynched. However, I am rather dubious about his reasoning for voting for Manwe. Manwe was strongly in favour of lynching Roa because he thought that she was lying, but thought it was also a good idea even admitting the small possibility that she was not. I rather agree with his (Manwe’s) reasoning. I still have some suspicion of TGWBS, because I am concerned that he may have been twisting Manwe‘s words here. Kitanna: Voted for Hookbill for seeming to hide behind a “mask of newbieness” and consistently claiming to be a bad judge of character. I cannot fault her reasoning, as I am uneasy about Hookbill for the same reason. However, Hookbill is one of those who has been bubbling under in the village’s suspicions, but with little prospect of attracting too many votes. And, despite being plagued by blizzards, there was always a possibility that she could return and switch her vote, if necessary. I have concerns that Kitanna may well be a "slip under the radar" Faithful and, of all the Day's votes, this one looks the safest Faithful vote to me. It may even have been a Faithful-on-Faithful vote. Kath: Voted for Rune for safe voting and for casting suspicion without much reasoning. I found Rune suspicious for much the same reason. She put Rune ahead here, with 2 votes, and, in light of her vote, I doubt that a Faithful Kath would have advocated killing Rune in the Night. Also, she gives a long analysis of all the villagers and states where she stand with each one before voting, which makes me feel better about her. Inclined to think her innocent at present. Mithalwen: Voted for Lalaith on the basis of previously stated suspicions, and then switches to Brinniel because she thought her more suspicious than Rune. Her vote for Lalaith was not particularly safe, given that there was a fair amount of suspicion around Lal at the time. I am concerned about the bandwaggon that suddenly gathered around Brinniel at the end, although I am not sure that a Faithful would have had much to gain by being included in it. That said, whoever speculated that the Brinniel voters had good reason to kill Rune in the Night had a good point and I do think that there was one Faithful, possibly two, among the last minute Brinniel voters. I don’t, however, think it was Mith, as she has not been acting like I would expect a Faithful Mith to act. Durelin: Voted for Rune on the basis that he was her original suspect of the Day and she had “seen this kind of Rune before”, putting him 2 votes ahead of anyone else. I do find Durelin suspicious and her run-in with Nogrod earlier toDay does not reassure me, as it may have been a Faithful attempt to associate herself with an innocent. Like Kath, I do wonder whether a Faithful Durelin would have been so bold as to kill Rune in the Night, after this vote. That said, if there was a Faithful among the Rune voters, I think this to be the one. Still looking very suspicious to me. Lalaith: Voted for Brinniel, bringing her to 2 votes. She said that she didn’t much like the choices, but that it was a toss-up between Brinniel and Manwe as she didn’t find Rune suspicious. Now, there was inevitably a bit of confusion surrounding these last minute votes and switches. But this was the vote that started the slide towards Brinniel’s lynching. As such, it looks more suspicious to me than those which came later. I also don’t really like the comment about disliking the choices. It may well have been intended to give the option of distancing herself from the situation if Brinniel was lynched and found innocent (as happened). Lalaith remains high in my suspicions. Lommy: Voted for Brinniel, saying that, of those she found suspicious, only she could be lynched. Much the same applies as with regard to Lalaith above. I am certain that either Lalaith or Lommy is a Faithful and, since they have both been defending each other every so often, I wonder whether they both might be. If so, both voting for Brinniel at this stage was dangerous but, given the timing, it may well have been a cross-post and retracting would have looked even more suspicious. Legate: Voted for Brinniel, although I am not entirely sure from his reasoning why. This followed an analysis of each villager. My concerns over Legate yesterDay were based on the fact that he seems to say a lot without saying much. His analysis does not ease my concerns in that regard. His vote for Brinniel was a cross-post so, if he is a Faithful, he may have unintentionally voted here with one of his friends. Still looking suspicious to me. Hookbill: Voted for Manwe because of a hunch that he was untrustworthy, putting him on 3 votes. Given the confusion, I am not sure that this was the safe vote it might otherwise seem (Brinniel was on 5 votes at the time). That said, I remain suspicious that he has given very little away about what he thinks and has voted for Manwe on both Days that he has voted without really giving any solid reasons. I am still wary of him. Based on that and my previous thinking, my current list is as follows: Suspicious Lalaith Durelin Lommy Kitanna Somewhat suspicious TGWBS Hookbill Legate No idea Gil-Galad Inclined to think innocent Manwe Kath Mithalwen Innocent Nogrod Does anyone know if Manwe is still playing? I missed all the furore on the Admin thread. Even if not, I guess we won’t know his innocence or guilt until toNight? Mac?