[the guy who be short]

Well, this is going to be interesting reading, because this was such a crazy game. Here's why we went for Rikae, and failed, that first day:

Here are the individuals that your Queen Tar-Míriel currently thinks is you:

Nogrod
Legate of Amon Lanc
Brinniel
Durelin (Mac)

Obviously we don't waste our time with Rikae (though if I were the Ranger I'd fake the wolves out and not protect her until the next Night...woops, I didn't tell you that...), but I say we pick off Lommy or Mith because people like to think they're innocent. (durelin)

The good news is, we know the Seer, which is the best we could have hoped for. As Durelin said, I think it would be hazard from the Ranger not to try to protect her, so should we reserve her for another day? On the double trick: Hazard it would be, but it depends on who the Ranger is, if he would even dare to perform such thing. No, I think it's better not to be concerned with that at all.

If we are not attempting to kill Rikae, is there anyone you have a particular aim against? Or should we bring down someone less important this time?

And last, any possible idea of Tar-Míriel's identity? And what do you think we should do with that he/she thinks two of us as Faithful? This, I think, also means more people might be inclined to think what the Cobbler thinks, unfortunately for us. (legate)

More like "whew!" from me!

That was … pretty intense.

You three played the Day wonderfully. I myself played it … well … pretty badly, I think.

I am not quite sure why both Roa and Nogrod saw fit to go after me with such gusto. My orginal comment which led to it all was, I thought, really rather innocuous. Indeed, I found myself rather frustrated with Roa in particular for going for me with such certainty on such spurious (to my mind) grounds. Before I saw Rikae’s revelation (just now, after the Day‘s end), I had Roa pegged as a Seer who had dreamed of me on Night 1.

All in all, I think it better to assume that the Ranger will protect Rikae tonight. My immediate reaction for an alternative target is either Roa or Nogrod. It is no disrespect, I think, to any of our players to note that, on past form, they are most probably among our our most dangerous adversaries. And I do wonder whether her defence of my "case" against Nogrod was grounded in more than blind trust (a rare thing for one such as Roa). Are they perhaps the Ranger and Hunter partnership?

Pros of killing Roa: We get rid of a dangerous adversary and I get her off my back. Possibly, we kill a Gifted.

Cons of killing Roa: It points to me. if she is the Hunter, she will probably take me with her.

As for our Queen’s list, it looks like we have a pretty astute Cobbler. Two out of four ain’t at all bad on Day 1. Hence my feeling that it might be Mith. (SpM [Couldn't you guess by the length?])

At any rate, the only people who I think seriously considered you were Roa and Nogrod, and though they can certainly sway people in many respects, you're a prominent werewolfer and swayer, as well. So it's a little harder to get people to see you as guilty...well, at least not until a little later in the game.

I think passing the slight chance of getting Rikae tonight is a good idea. Any kill is better than no kill.

I did consider the possibility of killing Roa and going for the double-bluff, but I was far from sure you'd want to risk it. I also considered the idea of Roa being the Cobbler, because actually I think she's acting like I would as Cobbler - making very assured accusations and sticking with them pretty much no matter what...and be overly sarcastic.

I agree that the Cobbler could be Mith or Lalaith, so for now let's scratch them off the list?

But you bring up a important thing to consider, SPM - who Rikae might dream of tonight. Killing off ahead of time the person she dreams of would be nice and convenient. Of course, that might involve a gamble we don't need or want to risk. Manwe is a good possibility, so is Nogrod, I think... (durelin)

The Cobbler is either a lucky guesser or rather astute. I tend to think the latter. I don't think it should concern you and Legate too much, though. There were hardly any accusations against either of you during the Day, and Legate's main accuser is now departed.

Agreed. Although let's hope that the Ranger doesn't take the gamble and protect our chosen alternative.

You know, re-reading the thread last night, I became increasingly convinced of the possibility of Roa being the Cobbler. It would possibly explain her defence of Nogrod (if she thought him a Faithful) and her antagonism towards me (if she thought me innocent). Going back through her analysis of me, it is not at all up to her ususal standard - she twists my words.

I propose that we kill Nogrod. (SpM)

I think it's time that those who might be labelled as posting without saying much came under some pressure, so I'll be looking in that direction toMorrow. After all, it's not something that any of us are doing. Holby and Kath spring to mind

So, Nogrod seems a distinct possibility for toNight's kill. How about you, TGWBS? Happy with that, or would you prefer to consider alternatives? (spM)

There's a branch of maths, game theory, dedicated to winning games. And one of the key ideas on how to win is that you should not try to maximize gain, but minimize loss.

Now, we can either go for Rakae today or tomorrow.

If we go for her today, the worst possible scenario, that is the greatest loss, is that she's protected by the Ranger. This means no kill for us, and Rakae tells people about her dream. We then kill her next night. So we get 0 kills, the innocents get 1 innocent's name, Seer dies night 3.

If we go for her next night, the greatest loss is that she's protected then. This means we get a kill tonight, but the Seer lives until night 4 and reveals 2 innocents. This is far worse for us.

By the above logic, we should go for the Seer as soon as possible, i.e. tonight. She is our main threat, and her removal should be our priority. (TGWBS [Sorry for misspelling, Rikae!])

I take your point, but shouldn't we also factor in the greater likelihood that the Ranger will play conservatively in order to guarantee the certainty of the Seer for a further Day, and so protect Rikae toNight? (SpM)

I think it's impossible to assign a probability to the ranger protecting Rakae tonight or next night. Certainly it must be one of the two, but it all depends on who the Ranger is and how willing they are to take risks.

I don't see that a "no kill" tonight would be damaging. The Might and Holbytlass are both being withdrawn tonight anyway.

Also, a great advantage of a (potential) kill tonight is that there will be no known innocents. (TGWBS)

OK, you've convinced me. I'm in. What about the others? (SpM)

Okay, so you are suggesting to go after Rikae in the end? Well, the same thoughts like TGWBS posted occured to me before, but since Durelin suggested not to complicete it, I didn't. It is however fact that it is safer to attack Rikae tonight than to risk losing tomorrow and having to attack the day after that. And also, when TM and Holby are out, I think we can actually consider it as if we killed two people!

Okay, if all of you agree to go after Rikae, then --Nogrod, +++Rikae (Legate)

As I said in my last PM, I'm up for either one. And I said from the beginning that a tricksy Ranger might skip protecting her toNight so he/she could next Night, and if simple me can think of that, then anyone can. So, we might as well go for it. (durelin)

Only one other point why not try to kill Rikae, but Nogrod tonight is, that if we kill Nogrod, we'll show the cobbler the correct way (Nog is highest on the list). (Legate)

I think going after Rikae toNight, even if we don't get her, will at least confuse people a bit. I think the natural tendency is to assume the wolves won't "risk" passing by a kill. (durelin)

I am planning to maintain my position that Manwe is most probably a "blundering innocent", and I will probably be examining those who strongly accused or voted for him yesterDay (which will include one or two of you, but that's no bad thing) (spM)

Well... that's a thoroughly abridged version! The full thing runs to 13 pages. But it was me who managed to convince the others to go for Rikae.