[Macalaure]

Here are a few things I've been thinking about during the night. It doesn't take into account anything that happened around the deadline. It's mainly a look at the votes and a closer look at two suspicious ones.


So...

1. Lommy for Glirdan ~ Suspicious, more beneath.

2. Sixth for Glirdan ~ No way would a wolf have voted like this.

3. Glirdan for Sixth ~ -/-

4. Roa for tgwbs ~ I agree with her reasoning for tgwbs and would call it an innocentish vote, though with Roa you can never be sure.

5. Gil for Lommy ~ What can you say about this? I never know what to do with Gil. I'll leave him to you.

6. tgwbs for Lommy ~ If he's evil, then this vote would have been good move to save Glirdan. His reasoning isn't the best.

7. Mac, that's me, for tgwbs ~ I admit that, if Lommy is evil, then this vote looks really, really ugly.


Now it's Glirdan 2, Lommy 2, tgwbs 2 and the interesting part begins. I rule out the possibility that Glirdan, Lommy and tgwbs are our wolves. Their early Day One behaviour would've been too suicidal. I think it's quite possible that one of the latter two is the second wolf, which gives a high probability that the third wolf (assuming that is their number) was still out there at this time, thinking how he could save Glirdan and the other. Would you vote the innocent one and risk looking bad yourself later, or throw your vote away and hope the best?


8. Mith for Xyzzy ~ This looks like throwing away, but she was encouraging everybody to follow her vote. I think it looks quite innocentish.

9. Legate for Lommy ~ One could look at this as an attempt to save Glirdan, but his suspicions of Lommy seem honest.

10. Rikae for Glirdan ~ No wolvish vote, as it puts Glirdan back into the running.

11. Brinn for Roa ~ Suspicious, more beneath.

12. Nogrod for Glirdan ~ The vote looks good if Lommy is innocent, of course, and if we had a combo of Glirdan-Lommy-Nogrod, then he wouldn't have attacked my vote for tgwbs like he did. I regard his vote as innocentish, though I don't forget that the evil Nogrod has a history of backstabbing his comrades.



On Lommy: Her vote looks too smooth for my liking. I sense some wolf-on-wolf-action here. Lommy had to vote early, and if she's evil she had to put up a vote that would be defendable later on. For both, evil and good Lommy, voting Glirdan was the only real option. Also, it looks like she was voting him while disencouraging everbody else to follow her:

Originally Posted by Lommy, on different posts

He is suspicious, but I'm not sure if he's guilty.
He looks quite bad. (Though possibly he looks too bad to be a real baddie. )
I must say that the evidence against him is in a way quite feeble

On Brinniel: Her first post when she returned is a defence of Glirdan (and Lommy!), this especially looks not well:

Glirdan: Yes, his behaviour earlier was a bit odd, but too often the ones who seem so obviously suspicious turn out to be innocent.

She then votes Roa, a throwaway vote, especially when there are no retractions. She doesn't want to vote Glirdan and Lommy. She says she doesn't want to vote tgwbs because she has no time and wants to examine him later. Wouldn't it have been better to look at tgwbs now and Roa later, given the vote count? Of course, this is only Brinn's second game, so this is really not definite evidence, but if Lommy xor tgwbs are a wolf, then Brinniel could well be the third.



Conclusion (concerning votes, not overall suspicion):


suspicious ~ Lommy, Brinn

somewhat suspicious ~ tgwbs

unsure ~ Gil, Legate

somewhat innocent ~ Roa, Rikae, Nogrod

innocent ~ Sixth, Mith