Nogrod (Summary in regular, thoughts in Itallics, final analysis in Bold)
Day 1
1st post - Agrees with Mac about people bemoaning Day 1, says the village should keep talking with less roleplay, will suspect people more for saying Day 1's are useless, thinks Roa was making a reasonable point, but remembers Roa is reasonable as a villain, hesitates to lynch Glirdy based on record, confirms that Lommy has no choice but to vote early
Standard "Day 1's are NOT useless" spiel, to be expected, interesting "Roa makes sense but could still be evil" point, followed by, "Glirdy looks bad but could be innocent," followed by, "Loomy has a valid excuse, but could be using that to her evil advantage." Waaaay more waffling in the first post than I expect from Nogrod. Very inconclusive for him. Sets off some alarms.
2nd post - Thinks Mac, Rikae, and Roa are being "cool and wise" but worries that they could be deceptive, thought Rikae was suspicious for point against Roa, but finds her sharing the suspicion of TGWBS, thinks TGWBS suspicion of Lommy is suspicious, doesn't think Lommy is innocent, but thinks the case against her is worrying, thinks that a wise wolf relaxes on Day 1, but doesn't rule out a wolf trying to steer the voting, concerned by Legate, also sixth, but doesn't want to lynch him on his first day.
Again with the waffling. For talking so much, he says very little of impact. His best suspicion is TGWBS, but basically for his case against Lommy, whom NOgrod waffles over some more. This is followed by a lot of, "So and so is confusing, so and so is odd" but nothing concrete. He said himself that a wise wolf sits back and lets the innocents decide who to lynch- so far, his posting style looks like just that. Even worse, he looks like what Iwas doing as a cobbler, throwing a little bit of suspicion everywhere and letting the innocents decide who to go after.
3rd post - points out that the fault of a "flood" is not the first poster but those who want to carry on the discussion, thinks the discussion surrounding Roa's post will be usefull later.
Actually, this post seems fine. At least he says something somewhat definite.
4th post - Lists the votes and the stated reasons for each vote, plus vote count
He's putting some meat into his vote counts now. I wonder if he'll draw any conclusions or continue waffling.
5th post -
Lommy's vote for Glirdan- not suspicious, but doesn't make her innocent, doesn't want to lynch her just yet.
See: Waffling
Sixth's vote for Glirdan- see Lommy
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/waffling
Glirdan's vote for Sixth - doesn't like retaliatory voting, thinks it's counter productive to never vote like that, tangent about Day 1's, uncomforatble lynching Glirdan, wants to think about it
What's that sign say? oh, "Waffle House"
Roa for TGWBS - doesn't think the reasoning is good, doesn't want to vote her with out more evidence
Most conclusive thing yet
Gil for Lommy - disturbing, "confused" about his mentioning of the gifteds, wonders about Roa suspecting Gil for the same reason,
(?) doesn't want to lynch him for the same reasons he doesn't want to lynch Glirdan- the two usually turn out innocent
That defense almost worked for the Lupine Glirdan. Almost.
TGWBS for Lommy - somewhat suspicious and unnerving, thinks the case is weak, thinks TGWBS is voting in the same way he did when he was a wolf (last game), suspected him then for the same reasons, not impossible for him to be a wolf two days in a row, doesn't want to vote him on Day 1.
He almost had it, he really did. Almost a genuine solid anything, but it was not to be. Dashed upon the accursed rocks of "But he could be helpful if he's not evil, even though he's clearly evil looking."
Feels more unsure of everything, vaguely pointing to the quiet
This is the most surprising of all. The normal Nogrod will usually aim for the quiet first, but here his gesturung towards them is almost feeble! I know you like to be cautious, but this is taking it too far. Where's the Nogrod who pulled a case against me literally out of thin air? I'm getting deeply concerned by this behavior.
6th post - question about time
7th post - Wants to relook at TGWBS, gives credence to Mith's plan to lynch xyzzy, says mathmatically he has about a 3/13 chance of being a wolf
The waffling aside, this has all the alarms ringing. Just a few posts ago, we had a possiblity of catching a wolf. Now he might go for a mostly random vote? He didn't want to kill Sixth because it was his first day of his first game, but the same doesn't apply to Xyzzy? Further more, he has a perfectly good lynch candidate, the most suspicion person he has, and somehow now, he's dropped him. What happened to looking at TGWBS further? This looks a great deal like a wolf trying to feel out his fellow players to see where the lynch is likely to go.
8th post - worries that waiting to lynch xyzzy will cause us to forget him enitrely, still "puzzled" by TGWBS, some of what TGWBS says makes sense, but other things are more suspicious, thinks TGWBS feels more malevolent than inocent, hopes Brinniel returns, wonders where Rikae is
Again he thinks TGWBS is supicious, but does nothing about it.
9th post - Thinks that lynching xyzzy may be best if she isn't coming back, but is unsure about that, thinks it's better if we vote for a possible wolf who's been present
And TGWBS doesn't count? Oh right, if he's innocent (because he's clearly not suspicious in anyway) he'll be very useful later
10th post - Thoughts on everyone
Conclusions, maybe?
Upstairs
Gil and Glirdan - Post normally and look highly suspicious. Could go either way.
Waffle, waffle, waffle
Sixth - first timer, doesn't want to vote for him
Roa and Thin - could be evil, but doesn't want to vote for them with so little evidence
I almost wouldn't mind him suspecting me, if it meant he be conclusive about something
Mac and Mith - not suspicious at all, but doesn't want to call them innocents "No way"
Brinniel - Sensible, doesn't suspect her anymore than anyone else
that's like a conclusion
Downstairs
Rikae and Legate - slightly suspicious
first I've heard of it
TGWBS - Worried about him, but still not dure he wants to lynch him
Of course not, why lynch someone you suspect, when you can lynch someone you have even more doubts about?
Xyzzy - already discussed
last resort safety vote, got it.
One or two wolves could be in upstairs list, but wants to vote for someone from downstairs list, or maybe Gil or Glirdan
Wait, so all this time you've been saying "Yeah, Glirdan looks suspicious, but he always does, and he's always innocent. I don't want to vote for him." Now, he suddenly a possible lynch candidate? And you prefer to vote from someone in the "downstairs" section (carefully not labeled with strong wording such as "More suspicious") where TGWBS is, but you don't mention him. The only consistancy you've had so far is that he looks more suspicious than anyone else, and yet you don't even mention him as a possible vote.
11th post - wants to wait for xyzzy
I'm not even gonna bother.
12th post - urges village not to shy away from opinions
You're one to talk
13th post - "Seven votes to cast - probably six as Xyzzy is one of them - and the leaders in votes have two each... Everything is possible."
14th post - Disagrees the TGWBS might be gifted for being sensitive to gifted talk- thinks a gifted would merely shy away from discussion.
Why is it that the only conlusions so far have nothing to do with catching wolves?
15th post - Agrees with Mac's vote for TGWBS, thinks it's reasonable, but disagrees with how he voted, "no further points or taking part on the discussion," thinks it's detached and that a wolf would do the same, mentioning that he might be killed, suggests everyone look at Mac and Roa (because Roa "jumped" on Gil)
So, you agree that TGWBS is suspicious, but instead of actually voting for him, you find someone else who voted for TGWBS suspicious. And why? Because he voted and left. No one else who did that merited suspicion from you, why him? And, just because it's iritating me- I didn't jump on Gil, so much as I mentioned that it made me suspicious of him, which you did as well. I recall many wolves accusing innocents of behavior that they themselves were doing in the past. It's in that book that Lommy mentioned, "How to Spot a wolf."
16th post - Updated list, thinks he might vote Mac, but doesn't want to spread the vote
Voting TGWBS, your primary suspect from your second post on wouldn't spread the vote.
17th post - Might consider joining xyzzy vote, would more likely vote Mac than TGWBS, doesn't want to vote either, thinks Mac's way of playing is too clean
where did that come from? You went from slight suspicion to likely vote in three posts, all without Mac doing anything at all! And what's with this xyzzy nonsense? You look like a wolf trying to find a safe place to hide.
18th post - Asks if anyone wants to go with Mac or Xyzzy
I'm incredualous at this. Out right asking for people to jump on a bandwagon either for someone who hasn't even shown up yet, or for someone whom suspicion of just matierialized out of no where. Why did he suddenly drop TGWBS? Sure, he didn't want to vote for him because he might be useful, but the same certainly applies to Mac. Why is it better to vote Mac than TGWBS? I can only think of one reason- Lommy is tied for the lead (I'm counting the cross posting as Nogrod didn't know she was in the lead) with Glirdan and TGWBS. He's blatantly encouraging everyone to lynch someone else, a substitute who hasn't even gotten votes yet. He said himself- nything could happen.
19th post - Doesn't want Lommy to go on such futile reasoning, thinks we should watch Legate
but it's okay for Mac to go on the same?
20th post - Decides to kill Glirdan "a shot in the dark"
Lommy makes a convenient excuse to suddenly change your mind about killing Glirdan and gaining a very secure seat for the next few Days. Why did you drop your suspicion on TGWBS for Mac? A vote for TGWBS would have at least given a chance for your top suspect to go down. I might expect this from someone else, but not from you, Nogrod. You're usually more definitive.
21st post - "I guess we got lots to think from these last moments for toMorrow..."
Overall, this is not the Nogrod I'm used to. He talks alot with out saying anything definitive. In fact, he reminds me of a wolfish SPM. Not to mention he completely droped his suspicion of TGWBS when there was a real possibilty of getting him lynched. Not a true contradiction, prehaps, becuase he did say repeatedly that he didn't want to vote for TGWBS. Of course he also said the same about Mac, and then turned around and blatantly tried to start a bandwagon for him in the last minutes. All Day he said nothing certain, which looks to me like he was trying to keep his options open, waiting like a wise wolf, as he so elegantly put it, to see who the unknowing villagers would lynch. When it looked like Glirdan was going to be lynched, he dropped his "Glirdan is usually innocent" attitude, and went for a vote that would no doubt make him look innocent to everyone. (See, it worked.)
The question remains- is this enough to lynch him? In the end, it comes down to odd behavior, and "fluff" as it were. Alarm bells are ringing, and unless he can justify this satisfactorily, or something better comes along (I'd really like to see an analysis of the others, plus one of TGWBS and Legate), he'll definitely be at the top of my list.
I have a lot to do in the morning, so I need to sign off now. Becuase of my schedule I may not be able to vote. However, I would rather not vote at all than vote now. See the admin thread for my reasons.