[Brinniel]

For a big chunk of the end of Day One, there was a discussion on whether to vote for xyzzy. As of right now, I feel pretty confident that at least one wolf was involved in this debate.

Here are some quotes that come from this discussion:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So if it looks like pure random or very improbable in the end we should perhaps consider Xyzzy?

Originally Posted by Mac

It seems like Xyzzy hasn't realised that the game has started. Lynching newbies on Day One is not nice.

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, I would say this is not nice if xyzzy plans to show yet - maybe he has some troubles we don't know about...

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I know it is not "nice" and that it is cynical and if htey had logged on more recently I wouldn't have suggested it but I will seriously consider doing so if I don't become more certain of the guilt of the current votees ..

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Anyways, I don't intend on voting for him. I do not like to vote for people who have not had the chance to speak. Let us wait and see if he shows up toMorrow, and then we can come up with a decision.

Originally Posted by Legate

what do you think about xyzzy? Is there a possibility to vote for him, or are we leaving this out? I am for that if nothing, it would not harm the village - probably. But if someone else, then someone else... just to know who to vote for.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I know I will be thought a hard hearted witch for this but I think I am still seriouly considering going for Xzzy.....

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I think it would be a waste of toDay to vote xyzzy, when we can vote for someone who is actually suspicious. I plan to give him at least another Day to show up and I ask that everyone else does the same.

Originally Posted by Legate

it seems that it's up to us whether to lynch or not xyzzy. For this, I'd maybe reconsider and wait. Reversing Nogrod's theory, he's 10/13 an ordo, so even if he does not do anything, he is still an ordo to count against the wolf numbers

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

his is cruel but I would rather hang fire on TGWBS and take my chance - Brinniel we don't have later ...
++ Xyzzy

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If there is to be a Xyzzy vote, I might consider joining it as the other possibilities look quite problematic.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Nothing else to do now. Better to shoot at darkness with Glirdy than Lommy.
++ Glirdan

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, if you said earlier, I might have voted for xyzzy. I hope I'm not wrong.

Oh geez, that's a lot of quotes... But it basically summarizes the entire discussion.

Okay, we do not know for sure whether xyzzy is innocent, but for right now let's theorize in the instance that he is...

Mac and I were the only two who were directly against voting for him. Mac didn't want to kill off a newbie on Day One and I wanted to give him another chance to show up. I have no regrets about my stance to not lynch him yet, and I still think it was for a good reason.

Legate, however, seemed a bit confused on whether or not to vote for him. He thought about it, but ended up deciding to wait and voted instead for Lommy. After Mithalwen's vote, he again switched back to thinking he should've voted for xyzzy, but by then it was too late. I suppose we could keep an eye on Legate, but I don't think what happened here makes him seriously suspicious. He seems more like an innocent caught in the middle of confusion on who to vote for and feeling a rushed with the deadline only minutes away.

Nogrod was the one who originally came up with the idea to vote xyzzy, and Mithalwen followed in agreement, though she was the only one who ended up voting for him. Now if xyzzy is innocent, then a werewolf Nogrod or Mithalwen, or even both, would knowingly push for the lynching of an innocent, using his absence as an excuse.

If Mithalwen were a wolf, she could play her innocence saying she voted for xyzzy because she was rushed and unsure on who else to vote for, and she'd rather vote for an absent innocent than a present one. Seems like a good excuse...or a credible cover.

Now let's say if Nogrod is a wolf, whether he is one with Mithalwen or not, the most sensible thing for him to do is to separate himself from her and her single vote for xyzzy and vote someone else instead. Now it seems unlikely that a werewolf would send a fellow wolf to his grave, but if Roa is right in her theory, then it makes perfect sense. After all, what better way to lose suspicion than to vote for the werewolf?

If Mithalwen or Nogrod are wolves, then why would Mithalwen vote xyzzy over tgwbs and Nogrod vote Glirdan over Lommy? Of course, the most obvious answer could be that either Lommy or tgwbs are wolves. But then, we also must remember at this time Lommy and tgwbs were tied in votes with Glirdan. If either had voted for one of them, they could've easily helped to seal the fate of an innocent...which could end up directing suspicion towards them.

Alright, I know this is a major theory I have here, and while I may quite possibly be completely off, I still think we should keep it into consideration. It's probably very unlikely that both of them are wolves, though it could happen. If one of them is a wolf, then I think it is more likely to be Mithalwen based on her voting.

I'm still considering Gil and Rikae as slightly suspicious (perhaps this comes from more of a hunch than anything), but since I do not immediately see any major evidence going against them as of right now, and I would like to go to bed, I will not worry about them until later.

EDIT: X-ed with Lommy