Day4
3 Wolves
1 Cobbler
1 Medium
5 Innocents
7 vs 3
Sure:
4 aWps (anti-Wolf-power, one being a vote strategy confusing Cobbler)
1 Wolf
Volo - The Medium
Aganzir - Innocent
Legate - Innocent
SpM - Cobbler
Mac - Wolf
Unsure:
2 Wolves
3 Innocents
Kath Wolf/Innocent
Diamond Wolf/Innocent
Shasta - Wolf
Gil-Galad - Innocent
Anguirel - Innocent
Day5
2 Wolves
1 Cobbler
1 Medium
4/5 Innocents
6/7 vs 2
Sure:
3/4 aWps (anti-Wolf-power, one being a vote strategy confusing Cobbler)
1 ? (My dream next Night)
Volo - The Medium
(One of the two might be dead, probably
Legate)
Aganzir - Innocent
Legate - Innocent
SpM - Cobbler
Unsure:
2 Wolves
3 Innocents
Kath Wolf/Innocent
Diamond Wolf/Innocent
Shasta - Wolf
Gil-Galad - Innocent
Anguirel - Innocent
Day6
1/2 Wolves
1 Cobbler
0/1 Medium
3/4/5 Innocents
5 vs 2, or 6 vs 1
Sure:
2/3 aWps (anti-Wolf-power, one being a vote strategy confusing Cobbler)
2 ?
(Might be dead)
Volo - The Medium
(One or two might be dead)
Aganzir - Innocent
Legate - Innocent
SpM - Cobbler
Unsure:
1/2 Wolves
2/3 Innocents
Kath Wolf/Innocent
Diamond Wolf/Innocent
Shasta - Wolf
Gil-Galad - Innocent
Anguirel - Innocent
The point:
This looks better on paper...
I'm saying that
SPM will cause the votes to go against us. On Day 6 this might be critical if the Wolves kill two Innocents (
Legate and
Aganzir) and we won't catch a Wolf on Day 5.
It would cause the situation to be such that we have:
- The Medium
- The Cobbler
- Two Wolves
- Two Ordos
And this is the situation we will lose in whatever my dreams!!
So we
have to catch a Wolf (or kill
SPM) on Day 5 or then the Wolves should try killing me next Night or the Night after.
But back to the roles:
I think
Rikae would want to make a balanced game and that the roles aren't 100% randomed. It might also be probable that she didn't give people the roles they have very often or in the preveous games.
That being the case this figure is the most probable:
Gifteds:
Lommy - Ranger/Assassin (dead)
An old timer that hasn't been a Ranger for a long long time.
Rune - Ranger/Spy (dead)
Same as Lommy.
Volo - Medium
A relative newbie that has never before been Seer.
Wolves (and Cobbler):
SPM - Cobbler
One of the oldest timers.
Brinniel - Wolf (dead)
A relative newbie that has never before been Wolf.
Mac - Wolf
An old timer that hasn't been a Wolf for a long time.
Shasta - Wolf (unknown otherwise)
A newbie that has never before been Wolf.
Kath - Wolf (unknown otherwise)
An old timer that hasn't been a Wolf for a long time.
Innocents
Anguirel
If he was instead of
Kath as the Wolf, the teams wouldn't be balanced.
Diamond
Still debatable. She might be the Wolf, but given that she had a special role in the preveous game, I think that it's more probable that
Kath is the Wolf.
Gil-Galad
Wolf in the preveous game.
Legate
Wolf in the preveous game.
Aganzir
If she was instead of
Kath as the Wolf, the teams wouldn't be balanced.
The preveous conclution is based only on the idea that Rikae didn't random the roles and pretty much nothing else, but it does seem to back up the situation of the game otherwise.
Yeah, I really use my history lessons wisely...
