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Old 05-22-2007, 06:41 PM   #415
The Saucepan Man
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Join Date: Jan 2003
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The Saucepan Man has been trapped in the Barrow!
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There’s probably little point in me doing this, but I shall anyway, for tradition’s sake, if nothing else.

Day 4 votes:

Volo: ++Mac (Mac-1)
Mac: ++Volo (Mac-1, Volo-1)
Legate: ++Mac (Mac-2, Volo-1)
Aganzir: ++Mac (Mac-3, Volo-1)
Kath: ++Mac (Mac-4, Volo-1)
Anguirel: ++Kath (Mac-4, Volo-1, Kath-1)
Diamond: ++Mac (Mac-5, Volo-1, Kath-1)
SpM: ++Volo (Mac-5, Volo-2, Kath-1)
Gil: ++Mac (Mac-6, Volo-2, Kath-1)
Shasta: ++Volo (Mac-6, Volo-3, Kath-1)
Anguirel: --Kath, ++Volo (Mac-6, Volo-4)
Gil: --Mac, ++Volo (Mac-5, Volo-5)

I strongly suspect that, if they had the opportunity to do so, one of the Wolves will have voted for Mac, particularly if the Cobbler voted for Volo (although the Cobbler will not have known for sure which one was lying and which one was telling the truth). The other Wolf will almost certainly have voted for Volo.

Mac voters: Aganzir, Kath, Diamond

Based upon Volo’s dream about her, I believe that Aganzir may well be a Wolf. Knowing Mac to be a Wolf and Volo to be innocent, the obvious move (for one of the Wolves, at least) would have been to support Volo’s claim. Other than Legate, Aganzir was the only villager who appeared to have no doubt whatsoever that Volo was telling the truth.

Kath’s to-ing and fro-ing on the issue looks suspicious to me, as if she was making her mind up what the best move for a Wolfish (or Cobbleresque) Kath was. So, if I am wrong about Aganzir, Kath is probably the Wolf here. If not, she could be the Cobbler.

Diamond’s reaction to the situation looks entirely genuine to me.

Volo voters: SpM, Anguirel, Shasta, Gil

The likelihood is that there is at least one Wolf and quite possibly a Cobbler here.

Shasta’s vote looks reasonable to me, as it was by no means clear which claim was true (even with the benefit of hindsight) and Volo’s duplicity (albeit in a good cause) definately looked dodgy.

As a last minute switcher, Gil’s vote is more suspicious, but I cannot fault his conclusion that a double-lynch was in the village’s best interests, as I thought this to be the best outcome for anyone who was in doubt. Still, the last minute nature of it suggests to me that he may be the Cobbler.

As for Anguirel, I think it quite possible that he is the Wolf among the Volo voters. The reason that he gave for switching his vote was that Volo was behaving smugly. An outrageously capricious and unreasoned vote at such a critical time. Possibly, he hoped that everyone would conclude that a Wolf wouldn’t possibly make such an outrageous move. It is also worth noting that he did a similar thing on Day 3, when everyone else who was around had concluded (correctly) that Brinniel was most likely a Wolf.

So, if anyone cares, my thoughts are:

Probable Wolves
Aganzir
Anguirel

Possibly Wolf or Cobbler
Kath

Possible Cobbler
Gil

Most likely innocent
Shasta
Diamond
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