[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Brinn

Maybe these wolves aren't as clumsy as we thought. And I was so confident this time! And indeed, if Gil doesn't turn out to be a wolf, then these wolves are cunning to make us think the quiets are the ones. Now I'm beginning to think that's more possible than anything...

I'm not sure what to do...if Nienor and me die toNight and I take down an innocent, the game's over and we lose. But with the lack of kills thus far, I don't know. Cripes, I wish I knew who was protected.

Gah! I'm so frustrated right now! If Izzy was our wolf, we would've had it in the bag. But now I know nothing.

This one's long, but I thought I should leave most of it in since you didn't get to hear from me in the Day:

Originally Posted by Brinn

I've been thinking things over very carefully. I've come to realise now with only seven of us alive, two are wolves, and four are gifteds...which means there's only one ordinary left. If there finally is a wolf-kill toNight (and I think there will be), the chances that a Gifted will be hit is extremely likely, and I won't be surprised if it's Nienor and I that go down...hopefully Androg will protect one of us. If it has to be a gifted, I would prefer to see Androg go. That way, we can finally know his identity, and you could get your ability back. Then again, we'll never know who he protected. But ideally, it'd be great if the ordinary was attacked...then all the Gifteds could reveal at once and we could easily pick out our wolves....but that's not likely to happen.

Anyways, I did something similar to what you did on the thread and paired all our unknowns up:

tgwbs and Lhuna:

Day 1-

-Lhuna finds tgwbs’s vote hasty and safe

Day 2-

-Lhuna suggests Nogrod and tgwbs could be Beleg and Turin or two wolves, but is not sure
-tgwbs thinks there is a possible wolf in the Rikae-Lhuna-Mithalwen-Brinn group
-tgwbs agrees with Rikae on her suspicious thoughts of Lhuna; he does not trust her for debating the gifteds
-Lhuna lowers her suspicion of tgwbs and finds his observations sensible

Day 3-

-Lhuna is uncomfortable with the debate between tgwbs and Nogrod; she is certain one of them is a wolf
-tgwbs doesn’t think a wolf-Lhuna would vote for Nogrod today

Day 4-

-Lhuna finds tgwbs to be innocent from his vote yesterday; she says he seemed too sincere and noisy to be guilty
-tgwbs is unsure about Lhuna


Mithalwen and tgwbs:

Day 1- no mention of each other

Day 2-

-tgwbs thinks a wolf in the Rikae-Lhuna-Mith-Brinn group
-tgwbs doesn’t know about Mith because she’s said too little
-Mith says that tgwbs sets off her alarms

Day 3-

-tgwbs doesn’t think a wolf-Mith would defend Nogrod so strongly; thinks she’s innocent

Day 4-

-tgwbs suspects Mith for defending Nogrod but not voting early to help save him, for jumping on Brinn for suggesting she’s suspicious if Nogrod’s innocent, for keeping a presence but saying little, and for her attempting to divert suspicion to Gil. He votes for Mith.
-Mith is uneasy about tgwbs


Gil-Galad and tgwbs:

Day 1-

-Gil finds tgwbs’s vote for xyzzy, who had said nothing, strange

Day 2-

-tgwbs says he can’t decide on Gil due to his silence

Day 3-

-tgwbs thinks Gil is probably a wolf with Nogrod

Day 4-

-tgwbs finds Gil’s behaviour bizarre; thinks he might be feeling under pressure as a possible wolf
-tgwbs says Gil is his second lynch choice


Lhuna and Mithalwen:

Day 1- no mention of each other

Day 2- no mention of each other

Day 3-

-Lhuna keeps Mith in consideration for her vote, but she want to hear more from her

Day 4-

-Lhuna is worried about Mith’s confidence of Nogrod’s innocence, little contribution, and vote for Brinn
-Lhuna concludes that Mith is suspicious, but she still wants to hear more first


Lhuna and Gil-Galad:

Day 1-
-Lhuna scolds Gil for talking without saying much
-Lhuna doesn’t like Gil’s behaviour in a serious situation, but doesn’t want to judge him on this alone and says we should keep an eye on him

Day 2-

-Lhuna notes Gil’s vote and “rest in peace” comment and thinks it a possible slip. She’s unsettled about it, but decides she’ll wait before judging him.

Day 3- no mention of each other

Day 4-

-Lhuna doubts Gil’s guilt because he’s been absent, but she will still keep him in consideration.


Mithalwen and Gil-Galad:

Day 1- no mention of each other

Day 2- no mention of each other

Day 3- no mention of each other

Day 4-

-Mith wonders if Gil is using his words to make up for lost time and finds him possibly suspicious

----

Okay, if we still looked at meta and judged our wolves by that, I'd say Gil and Mith are our most likely pair because it's likely they'd miss a kill since neither one was around on Night 3. And if this no-kill was an accidental miss, it would probably make tgwbs innocent because he posted on the thread shortly (a half an hour, I think) after the deadline. But if this miss was strategic (and it could be...I mean, it's working), then that's a whole different story...

I was so sure either Izzy or Gil would be a wolf, but now I'm doubtful. I mean, though Gil's behaviour is strange, he is always like that and most often when he's lynched, he turns out innocent. Last time Gil was a wolf, he was extremely active and less suspicious. Now if he's a wolf, I think Legate would've assigned him with a reliable player, and seeing who's left, we now know that's true.

Mith is playing strangely with short posts and not saying much about anyone. Since Day 3, I assumed she was not an ordinary.

Lhuna is looking pretty suspicious to me. She seems so careful with her words. Her thoughts of others go up and down but never dramatically enough to draw attention...she's almost too sensible. Her vote yesterDay was a bit sudden and it felt like she was just jumping on the bandwagon more than anything.

And tgwbs...I just can't put a handle on him. It can so easily go either way.

Likely wolf-pairs:

Lhuna and tgwbs - Their suspicion of each other goes up and down, yet it's never enough to draw attention.

Mith and tgwbs- YesterDay's attack on Mith could come from a cunning fellow tgwbs wolf. After all, she wasn't under heavy suspicion and if she was lynched, it'd be a great cover for him.

Gil and tgwbs- Not sure, but I think it's a possibility.

Gil and Mith- Because of meta-reasons and they've managed to get away saying practically nothing about each other.

----

Who is the remaining ordinary? My guess it's either Rikae or Gil. I don't get a gifted feel from Rikae, but if Gil is innocent, I don't think he's gifted.

If Lhuna isn't a wolf, then she's probably Androg (due to Day 3's narration).

If Mith isn't a wolf, then she's probably Nienor. I can't imagine Nienor being anything but a seer, and from what little we've heard from Mith, it has been fairly accurate (and notice...she dropped any suspicion she had of me from Day 3).

If tgwbs isn't a wolf, well, he could be anything...

I like the idea of Lhuna and tgwbs as a pair. Both are very smart and play strategically. After Izzy's death, I find it quite possible the wolves are purposely playing their kills a bit clumsy just to fool us.

I'm pretty sure at least one of us gifteds will be down come this time toMorrow. Even if it's strategic, no wolf would let another no-kill go when they're so close to winning. I don't know who will be still alive, but someone will have to reveal I think if we have any chance of winning.

Originally Posted by Mac

I still think that Rikae may be Androg. I could imagine her going for me in Night 2, when there is no other clue to follow. Also, she made that one post that I think might be a slip. I don't think she is Nienor.

Mith is very concerned not to kill a gifted. If she's Nienor, she's very obvious. Or is she a wolf pretending to be Nienor in order not to be lynched?

I think the Guy is either wolf or ordo.

Lhuna could be anything.

I doubt that Gil is gifted. If he's a wolf, he must be combined with a reliable partner, i.e. Guy or Lhuna.

tgwbs and Lhuna. Heaven knows how they could miss the kill, but only judging from their behaviour, it's very possible.

tgwbs and Mith. I think tgwbs went after her yesterday too strongly and with too bad reason. It seems he really wanted us to lynch her.

The other pairings... I really don't know. They're all possible (though Mith and Gil is unlikely).

There are a few things I noticed about Lhuna yesterday:

More fully? Anyway, I didn't think this held when Nogrod brought it up and I still don't think it holds. Even if the wolves are inexpierienced, it would require a lot of luck to reject each of their kills. Especially if they're inexperienced, they might make simpler kills than the rangers foresee. There'd be the danger of the rangers overthinking the wolves plan.

It's interesting that she is also suspicious of Mith, as tgwbs. Is there a wolvish plan behind it?

These were her last words. Where did they come from? She first follows my vote and then makes such a statement?

If that lost kill hadn't been, I would suspect tgwbs and Lhuna most, now.

The upcoming kill (if there finally is one) will be interesting, and possibly very scary for us. The many scenarios (including whether Rikae is Nienor or Androg or not) make my head hurt. If we both and Rikae survive, I think we should reveal. It will be interesting to see who claims to be (fake-)Androg and (fake-)Nienor. If one of us is lost, then we will have to see.

I hope you make a good decision with your hunt. Tonight, it might be crucial.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Well, I have a 50% chance of hitting a wolf in my hunt...still I'd prefer better odds, say 75. But another thing is I could hit Nienor and that wouldn't have much effect since she would die anyway. If I protect an innocent other than Nienor and me or Nienor are attacked, the only way this game will not end is if one of the three are protected (Androg knows one innocent, so the odds are 3 out of 5, I think). If I got that wrong, it's because I'm terrible at math.

I feel like Lhuna and tgwbs just might be our wolf pair, but I can't be sure.

I wish I knew who Nienor was. If Nienor is a Seer, I'd think it would be Mith, but you're right...it's a bit too obvious. But I don't think her ordinary....and Androg? Maybe...but I'm doubtful. If she's a wolf, her most likely pairing is with Lhuna.

The problem with a Seer is that if it's not Mith, then this person has been just as misled as the rest of us. If Mith is a wolf, tgwbs is our most likely Seer as he suspected her so. But then, why didn't he dream of Nogrod then? I'm not sure...

I doubt Rikae is a Seer of any sort...she's been misled many times. The possibility that she is Androg is getting more and more likely though. And while she has been wrong, perhaps as she's our only other known innocent, we ought take heed in some of Rikae's suspicions. Lhuna, for example...she's suspected her since Day 2.

Lhuna, Lhuna...she's looking most suspicious to me. I mean, look at her votes; all innocents, but each one is easily explained. Early on, I thought her innocent, and usually it is the people I trust most that are guilty...

I think I will hunt Lhuna. Or else, I could guarantee another Day by not hunting at all, but really, I think I'd rather take a risk...

Originally Posted by Mac

Androg knows me and possibly one more (unless he protected himself last night).
You have a 50% chance to kill an innocent and end the game if Rikae is Nienor.
In the more likely case, you only have a 25% chance to kill Andróg or the one ordo left.

Same here.

Hmmm. The Guy as a seer? Not impossible, even though I don't count with a seer anymore. But it's a risk that would speak against hunting him.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Almost everyone seems to find me innocent, and I worry that makes me an easy target. At the same time, I hope that makes me an easy choice for protection (if I wasn't protected last Night). I have no clue who will be attacked, but I won't be surprised if I die, so I'll prepare myself for it. I will welcome death if I do manage to take down a wolf with me..

Lhuna, it is. And it better be right because otherwise I'm completely stumped.

Phew, that was a lot of quotes! But I hope you guys find this more helpful and interesting than boring...