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Alrighty. Now that I am free of the shackles of work, I might respond more fully. This will include some rehashing of my first post, but it will keep things together better, I think.
So let us explore my Seer-dom.
Alrighty. On the first dream night, I spent my time dreaming of Saucepan Man. There was no real reason here, except that he is a great (and dangerous) player if he is a wolf. To my surprise and luck he was indeed one.
I did not reveal my suspicions of him once I knew his true nature as it might place me in harm's way. The wolves this game did not seem to be picking threatening targets, however. I am unsure as to what their decision-making process could be, but it might be based in the "potential" of their targets to cause harm. Brinniel might be the best case for this argument, as she seems to be a well-rounded player.
My next dream was of Kath (though I was considering the phantom, but then felt he would not be a wolf as well as Saucepan Man), who had garnered some suspicion from Saucepan Man. Knowing his nature, I decided it might be best to see if it was a wolf-on-wolf plot. Unfortunately it was not, and so I did not have another wolf. But I had an innocent at least. Fortunately, Kath still lives.
My third dream was of the phantom, whose actions during the quintuple lynch moment were quite suspicious. I doubted he could be a wolf at first, but since Kath was innocent it might have been wolf-to-wolf action with Sauce. Again I turned up nothing, as the phantom proved to be an innocent.
Once Holby came out as a the Seer I knew her to be a wolf, and knowing Sauce was one I refused to reveal myself. I felt this would be best for the village (as the wolves might get lucky and get an attempted double lynch which would allow them to win the game with my death by tacking all three of their votes on me).
Once the Night set in, I debated for some time one who to dream of. Holby did not really provide much to go on. Her absence and lack of interaction with other players gave me a dead end. I could find little based on what had come out of her voting for Saucepan Man, as I attributed it to wolves attempting to draw me out. So I went an alternate route.
Saucepan Man had been a rather vocal player this game (one of the few), and Holby was "helpful" when around, but mostly absent. Since these two were known wolves to me, I thought I might try to pick my dream based on activity and any feelings I might have when I thought of certain players.
Mithalwen and Gil-Galad were my only two choices, as I had dreamed of the phantom and Kath previously in my attempt to use Saucepan Man as a reference point. Mithalwen had some things in common with Sauce, but she has been available. I did not feel anything in my gut when I went over some of her posts, and so I moved on to Gil-Galad.
His lack of activity (which would put him at the low end of the scale of the three wolves, with Sauce at the top and Holby in the middle), combined with his random voting pattern (which is sparse, but his mod vote was very odd) and my initial suspicion of him (mostly playing off his avatar) leant me to look into him. Although it would not matter, I preferred to find the wolf outright rather than an innocent. Either one being dreamed of would have yielded the result. In dreaming of Gil-Galad, I did indeed find the wolf I was looking for.
While I am saddened the phantom had to die in the name of my search, coming out would have been ineffective in winning the game in my view. But I feel his sacrifice is not in vain, as the innocents of this village can rally and put down a wolf today. Then everything is set for a win after my death tonight.
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