[The Saucepan Man]

It seems that we’ve all benn looking back over Noggie’s posts.

In his first post (#8), he says:

I'd agree with Lommy here for I do think also that we probably have three wolves around.

Of interest because we are still wondering whether we have two Wolves yet to contend with, or just one. It’s difficult to know, however, whether Nogrod was telling the truth here, or seeking to mislead and, perhaps, spread fear.

In post #17, he says:

I think also that we need to be aware not to direct all our attention and / or suspicion over exactly those people who look like ones we could easily turn to - even if it is the easiest way for any individual in the confusion and guessing on Day1. It has many times resulted in hasty bandwaggon-lynching of an innocent with the negative effect that the baddies can safely ride with the tide and get lost in the crowd.

The sense is unclear, but I think that he was trying to steer people away from the loud ones. He makes the same point slightly later, in #35:

But what I'm afraid of is that we end up like so many times before lynching an outspoken innocent on Day1 just because it's so easy to vote for those who are talked about eg. those who have themselves said something that stirs discussion.

He seems to be referring primarily to Eolin, Lommy, himself and me, all of whom had received a vote at that time (see his post #36). I actually agreed with him at the time, but it he may have been trying to divert votes away, not just from himself, but also from a fellow Wolf. If so, from my perspective, it can only have been Eolin. Then again, it is typical of Noggie to try to keep the louder players in the game, even when they are against him, and he would certainly have wanted to dissuade any further votes for him.

Noggie’s post #34 bears reading in its entirety. He analyses each of those who he claims to be considering voting for: Izzie, Brinn, Durelin and Kath. I think it quite likely that there was a fellow Wolf in this list. I am not sure why he was looking at Kath at all, given that she had hardly posted (which supports my feeling that she is likely innocent). And, while I would not put it past him to have voted for a fellow Wolf, I tend to think that, if Izzie was his fellow, then his vote for her would have been too risky. As for the other two, I rather agree with Rikae that the words he used about both of them could well be those of a Wolf speaking of a fellow Wolf.

In #37, he lists his suspicions:

Here we go then.

I find suspicious:
Isabell - The silent ones are always hard to catch but the slip about being frightened might be the one to make it this time.
Kath - I always find her suspicious and am afraid of her as she can pass every radar and still get on with it.

I have some concerns:
Lommy - Because of what I mentioned above.
Dury - She's one of those one just can't say anything. So we should be very careful with her.

I'm slightly worried about:
Spm - He doesn't ring any alarms right now.
Brinniel - She doesn't ring any alarms right now.
Rikae - She doesn't ring any alarms right now.
Menel - He hasn't have had even a chance to raise any alarms this far.

I'm believing innocentish:
Cailmer - Look above for stated reasons.

Hmm, if I was a Wolf making a list like that, I would probably place my fellow (if only one) in the ‘some concerns’ or ‘slightly worried’ category.

As I said earlier, I think Rikae’s vote for me (which essentially prompted me to change my vote to Nogrod) was not the vote of a Wolf. Menel has not said a great deal so far, and what little he has said does not arouse my concerns. So, based purely upon Nogrod’s posts, I would conclude that either Brinniel or Durelin is a Wolf (but probably not both).

Of the two, I am inclined to suspect Dury more, because of Noggie’s placing of her in his list and the words he uses to describe her:

And Dury is crafty enough to look perfectly her normal self and still be a villain.

She's one of those one just can't say anything. So we should be very careful with her

Just sounds like a Wolf talking about a fellow Wolf to me.