To add something to this, Sauron's original plan was - at least according to Gandalf, but I am quite convinced he was right here - to attack Rivendell and Lórien (and maybe the Havens - they were something like a "last stand" and probably not much of a fortress; their role would be very similar to that of the havens of Brithombar&Eglarest in the First Age). The problem of course was that Minas Tirith needed to be made a target, if just because it was a "stand-alone" problem, it was the one "wordly" power to stand against Sauron. Not forgetting the fact that Sauron hated the descendants of Númenor, and we also know he was nail and teeth holding to the search for Isildur's heir, of whom he was afraid that still exists. His plans to assault Rivendell were halted by the return of the King under the Mountain, as we are told in the Appendices and also in the Unfinished Tales. My current D&D campaign is based on the idea of Sauron trying to prepare Angmar for further re-settling it with his hosts (hopefully none of my players is going to read this
), which was historically - well, maybe not proven; but largely suspected fact. I suggest to all of you who have interest in this to read "The Quest of Erebor" in the Unfinished Tales, I could quote here but technically half of the chapter is about it.
I actually believe that if Sauron was not provoked by Aragorn, or have not learned that the Ring was found, he would attack Lórien and Rivendell first. However, after he learned the Ring was found - and more, that there is Isildur's heir still living in Middle-Earth (and even more, that he has probably conquered Isengard), the logical conclusion was that the danger will come out of the remnants of Dúnedain, which meant Minas Tirith. It was necessary to strike the Men before they unite under the returned King, and before that King comes with Sauron's Ring to challenge his power (or that was at least what Sauron obviously thought).
But as I said, had none of this happened, Sauron would've, I'm convinced, focus more on Lórien and Rivendell, as Mansun suggested. Though protected by powers of the Rings, both of the Elven havens would fall in time, if exposed to concentrated attack. The main trouble with Rivendell was that it was a little "off-hand" and after the Kingdom under the Mountain was rebuilt, the campaign would've taken too much time. Though as we know even from the Appendices to LotR, even during the War of the Ring Sauron almost succeeded in inflicting terrible harm to the North. Had he had a little more time or luck, beating Dáin, Brand and Thranduil (by both the forces of the Easterlings and Dol Guldur) would've opened the passage to Eriador to the hosts of Easterlings (!) and it will be the Second Age all over again; but this time, it won't be the Númenoreans but just a few Rangers and all the Hobbits at the Stony Ford and Brandywine Bridge (wow, now that would be also a great idea for fanfic). Lórien would be crushed as well, or surrounded in a hostile world, till slowly, as a last bastion of Light, it would fade under the Orc assaults and coming of the Nazgul.
Gandalf sums up his opinions on the situation after the War of the Ring like this:
Quote:
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Originally Posted by The Quest of Erebor
The main attack was diverted southwards, it is true; and yet even so with his farstretched right hand Sauron could have done terrible harm in the North, while he defended Gondor, if King Brand and King Dáin had not stood in his path. When you think of the great Battle of Pelennor, do not forget the Battle of Dale. Think of what might have been. Dragon-fire and savage swords in Eriador! There might be no Queen in Gondor.
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