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Old 11-16-2007, 02:35 PM   #158
Legate of Amon Lanc
A Voice That Gainsayeth
 
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Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.
Analysis of The Might's posts

First one thing. Good to see that Nog had posted before me, because I was waiting for that. I had my opinion formed already, and thus the following is made without any influence of his post on mine and, of course, his is without any influence of mine on his. So, TM's posts, with two addittions in italics from me:

DAY 1

#9
Says absolutely nothing.

#19
Explains why he said nothing. The only person he mentions is Lhuna who, as we know, is already dead, and he says nothing of concern to us.

#21
Agrees with Brinn on that it's better to say something that has little or no value than saying completely nothing. Says that Rikae's way of starting the game is very "special ".

#50
Says that he didn't want to seem confusing (when people say he is). Says that except Rikae's vote nothing that could make him think whether someone is a balrog or not has happened. Says that he's going to "follow his Gondolindrim instinct and vote". Votes Nogrod. (At that time, there were four votes for Rikae by Rikae, Brinn, Gil and Volo and one vote for Nogrod by Kath.)

DAY 2

#86
Says he actually doubts Nogrod is a bad guy. To be precise, he adds:
Quote:
Well, I must admit I feel I've been wrong about my last vote. I actually doubt Nogrod is a bad guy right now, just kinda feeling that. Yes, know it sounds somewhat stupid to change my mind so fast, but I hope I won't be wrong about this.
Also says that he does not think I (Legate) am bad and that it does not seem that I am planning something with Nogrod.

This to me looks as if he has Seen Nogrod at Night 2. This quick change of mind on Nogrod could also be something that the Balrogs may have noticed and thus, attacked him.

#91
Says that Nogrod's points in analysis of Mac are interesting and convincing, is looking forward to what Mac has to say.

#95
After a few posts from Mac, TM concludes that he's indeed suspicious.

#117
Notices many people regard him as bad guy due to the fact he agrees with me and Nogrod about Mac. Says that he had his own suspicions on Mac from the start of the 2nd day.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TM
However, I had had my own suspicions about Mac from the start of the 2nd day.
Now this sentence may also look like saying "I dreamt of Mac toNight."
Votes Mac (after there was only one vote before, by me, also for Mac). Says that he is quite certain about his vote and adds that he is suspicious about Kath, but not entirely sure on that one.

And that was the last from him.

Please everyone make your own conclusions based on this. I don't want any of my opinions to influence you.

Now, as you see, there are two points of mine in italics that are contradictory. TM's change of opinion on Nogrod at the beginning of Day 2 is indeed shocking. However, what about his suspicion on Mac? That also arose, as he says, from the beginning of Day 2 (Day 2! Not Day 1, as Nogrod says!!!). Now what? He couldn't have two dreams at night. But after the situation on Day 1, when he voted Nog, I'd guess it's only logical to conclude that he voted him. Could it be that he concluded that no way, if Nog is innocent, Mac could be as well? Possibly. This is why he was so sure. Because, I believe had he dreamt of Mac on Day 1 already, he would've voted him, and not Nog, that Day.

But one thing remains - whom he dreamt of on Day 1? Well, given TM is a newbie here, and I daresay of all the players he's probably the most familiar with me (from the outside), it could be that with nothing else to guide him, he chose to dream of me on Day 1. Well, then, I am innocent, of course. But he never mentioned me on Day 1. In fact, there are only a few people whom he mentioned on Day 1. Nevertheless, one thing is undiscutable: TM certainly did not dream of Nog on Day 1. Had Nog been innocent, he wouldn't have voted for him. Had Nog been a balrog, TM wouldn't have changed his opinion of him on Day 2.
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