There is nothing equal to a sure bet in the film industry. But there are some properties which are considered safer bets than others. Lucas did three STAR WARS film and then waited an entire generation to do the next... and people speculated that the magic may not strike again. They were wrong and the SW franchise produced three more mega hits. I would be willing to wager that the next two ME films repeat that pattern. In fact, the chances are even better because
1- more people saw LOTR than the last set of SW films
2- it is a more recent experience than the first three SW films were to the next three in the franchise
3- the LOTR films were generally held in much higher regard by the media and industry and the buzz will be positive on these
4- the film industry is looking for a savior bigtime and nothing looks like as good for that role as a Peter Jackson HOBBIT right now.
from Lalwende
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The bubble has burst a bit on more Tolkien films. Maybe not to us as fans, but it certainly has to wider film audiences who have never looked at a Tolkien book.
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Outside of the anti-film audience that tends to permeate this site, I have absolutely no idea what you would base a statement like that on. Each LOTR film built bigger than the previous one in both box office and industry recognition. There is nothing you can point to to offer actual evidence for this.