Quote:
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Originally Posted by Menel
I'll turn my attention to the Lommy-Nogrod thing at this point.
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Well do not. This was just what I feared that might happen because we have been the loudmouths this far.
But let me tell you why - I've been thinking for some time now whether I should say this and indeed decided to do it at some point but as I need to go to sleep now and others might think the same as you
Menel; focusing on myself and
Lommy for lynching then we'd really do bad toDay. We need to lynch someone else than myself or
Lommy toDay!
Okay.
I'm a Guardian. I have a license to kill one wolf on my own.
I will take care of
Lommy the next Night. With these numbers we need the advantage the extra kill gives us.
It can give us one more Day indeed.
*
Why should you believe me and not
Lommy?
I'll deliver you the goods the next Night. If I were a wolf I couldn't do that and then you could lynch me toMorrow and get rid of one wolf thus gaining you an extra Day as well. So you lose nothing by believing me as there will be a dead wolf in any possible scenario you might come up with.
But getting an extra wolf-kill requires that we do not lynch
Lommy but that you leave her to me (obviously you shouldn't lynch me either toDay...
).
That's why we need to get another wolf than
Lommy toDay as our lynchee. So we need to concentrate on other people toDay. Understand?
Why I'm so ready to offer myself out in the open this soon? Looking at the situation we're in that's the only decent thing I can do as I have the means to actually ease our situation with gaining us an extra wolf-kill. And with
Lommy I'm pretty sure. With someone else it might be riskier to try.
* With the worst scenario (we lynching innocents and wolves succesfully killing one innocent during Nights) we will be at 5-8 after this Day, 5-7 toMorrow morning, 5-6 after Day2 and after the wolf-kill during the Night 5-5 in the morning of Day3 and thence all dead. Following the worst scenario as well: if you let me handle
Lommy the next Night it will be 5-4 in the morning of Day3 and we/you still have a chance to continue at least one Day... and if you think I lied to you? You lynch me on Day2 and you still have 5-4 on the morning of Day3.
EDIT: the last two ratios should obviously read 4-5 and not 5-4 to follow the logic of the earlier ratios... But anyway: giving me a shot with Lommy the innocents gain one more Day.