The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil

Rikae · 03-02-2008, 11:44 PM

Nogrod -
Day 1
12 -He started off in his first post with nonsense and a rather optimistic, but obvious, assessment of the situation. Hey, I was looking forward to trying a no-gifted game too... I understand that.
28 – Introduces lynch-the-quiets plan. He seems to be talking about general principles to excess. He says THE Ka and Volo give him “bad vibes”, but then relativizes that. He also sets up the possibility that he will vote for a silent person. (Sure, that is something he brings up in every game, but you have to admit, this would be a really convenient setup for a wolf. )
Actually, one thing that has bothered me about Nogrod in this game is that he hasn't gone after me aggressively, as he almost always does. I find it easier to believe that he knew I was innocent all along, than that he suddenly became able to recognize my innocence! I feel a bit as though he's “buddying up” to me (to use a phrase that seems to be popular in this game.)
31 -Makes some points about Menel and Mac. Says he can't read Sally and Boro, and thinks Lommy's innocent but it may be harder to read those you know from RL (indeed..).
His points about Menel and Mac look reasonable to me.
76 -List of everyone's suspicions up to that point.
79 -Continues suspecting Menel. Seconds suspicions of Mac and Gwath. Has a bit too much of a go-with-the-flow feel, compared to the Nogrod I know.
81 – More suspicion of Menel, agrees with Lommy about Mac, considers it possible one or two of Sally-Dury-Gwath are wolves, but then says he'll probably vote for a “submarine”.
83 – Answers Volo's question, turns around and asks Volo why he thought it was important.
96 – Continues to make his case for lynching submarines, in reply to Greenie.
102 – Lists suspects. Top suspects Menel and Mac, “alarm bells ringing a bit louder” for Gwath. Uneasy about Nerwen, Volo, McCaber and THE Ka. Not wishing to bring up Boro, Rikae or Mith. Lommy seems innocent.
105- Vote count.
109 -Says Gwath might be a good candidate, because of his vote and lynching Gwath might shed light on Sally/Dury. Volo is strange. Repeats that he wouldn't like to lynch Mac.
(More buddying up, this time to Mac? I also think it's a bit odd the way he jumped on my Gwath/Sally/Dury thing as though it were a more solid link than it actually was. He seems a bit too quick to agree.)
114 -McCaber surely is a candidate – last minute doubts about Gwath.
124 -Mac's post makes him look more innocent... agreement/disagreement are not the marks of good/evil.
128 -Is it Gwath (too easy) or McCaber (a shot in the dark on a master deciever)?
134- Votes for McCaber.
138 -Look at Volo and McCaber toMorrow; lynching of Gwath possibly too neat.

Overall: Nogrod was definitely going along with others' suspicions more than usual, and there is much less of his typical thinking-in-circles, too. He seems to be buttering me, and later Mac, up (and possibly Lommy, too?), and backpedals on Gwath as soon as it becomes probable Gwath will be lynched.

Day 2
154 -Comments on grotesqueness of narration. Agrees with Lommy on Sally being killed because she left no tracks.
160 -Tally with minutes before the deadline the vote was cast.
163- The Gwath bandwagon a good place for a wolf to hide... far-fetched that many declared they didn't want to see Boro lynched... Volo's vote is fishy because he says he's “widening the vote scope”
166- Agrees with Mac's suspicion of Menel and McCaber. Backpedals a bit on Volo:

“It may be I kind of over-lived with the last minute bandwaggoning yesterDay and got a bit carried away looking Volo's vote as more malignant it actually was.”
172 -Looks at McCaber...could be a submarine-wolf wearing newbie mask.
194 - Looks at Volo. His vote was suspicious, he's creating the impression he's not too enthusiastic about playing, he acted defensive when suspected by Boro. Claims to agree with Lommy's concern that suspicion of McCaber is too unanimous, but then says he's not sure how unanimous it really is, and finds McCaber's assurances he'll post more later, but failure to do so, suspicious.
200 -Looks at people who said we shouldn't lynch Boro. Finds Mith, Lommy and Mac most suspicious with Volo trailing behind. Also finds McCaber suspicious for only looking at people who have already gotten votes.
205 – The Gwathwagon. Everybody who voted Gwath was voting safe. Finds everyone at least mildly suspicious. Now, consider that 4 of the seven (5, from my perspective) are known innocents...and another is Mith, who is either an innocent or playing very dirty. Also consider how scrupulously Nogrod avoided joining said wagon, although he helped it along dramatically with his “willl shed light on Sally/Dury” comment.
216 – Agrees with Lommy urging McCaber to write more.
222 – Tells me he didn't find me extremely suspicious (in his Gwathwagon post). Too friendly...
224 – Vote tally
235 - Nerwen needs to be looked at after Volo's point on her over-carefulness, Rikae a bit touchy but otherwise good and sensible, Durelin – no idea, torn about Mith (remember Rikae last time), Mac feels better all the time but Nog's uneasy about what he's capable of, Menel screams wolf (but more often than not ends up lynched as an innocent), not too easy with Volo but doesn't top his list, ready to lynch “timebomb” McCaber, THE Ka – no idea, Lommy looks innocent, Greenie's low-flying (and something else about her, but he doesn't know what) bothers him.
241 -Vote tally
245 – Could vote for McCaber, Greenie's vote looks bad, could see Menel but afraid it would go wrong, baffled by Volo.
248 – Let's not lynch Mac, he can be very helpful, if he's a wolf we'll catch him talking himself into a corner.
263 – “McCaber or Volo? I have no superior argument either way.”
265 – Votes for McCaber “the timebomb and the submarine”
270 – Thumbs up (to Mac for voting McCaber, I presume)

Overall: Although he makes sensible points now and then, a wolf-Nogrod is certainly skilled enough to do so. The way he seems to continue to try to win Mac's, Lommy's and my trust bothers me. Of course, he may just be weeding out the “submarines”, as he says, while keeping those around he enjoys playing against most... but then again, he might well have been doing the same by night! The generalized focus on the entire Gwathwagon, in retrospect, also looks rather suspect.

Day 3
284 -Wolves must feel comfortable, looking at kills – or creating that impression to move attention away from themselves... nightmare scenario: at least two of the loudmouthed are wolves keeping others of the same reputation alive to avoid drawing attention to themselves.
This would be a bold statement indeed for a wolf-Nogrod – and just the sort of bold statement a wolf-Nogrod would make, scarily enough.
286 – Promises to look at various people.
288 – Still bothered by the people who talked about wanting to “save Boro”. Mith, Lommy, Mac and Volo involved there. Crosses tables of those and the people in the Gwath-wagon.
290 – Analyzes Nerwen. Does not give his conclusions, and Menel then calls it a revealing analysis and adds his own suspicions of Nerwen! Sure, Nogrod shows Nerwen suspecting several known innocents, but since when is that wolfish, really? This raises more questions for me about Menel, actually. (Or could Menel and Nogrod be wolves together?)
296 – Nerwen is careful and suspects/votes people others have suspected. Moves a notch upwards on suspicion-list. Edit: sees latest posts and has to think again.
297 – Asks me why I'm so sure about Mac.
300 -Exhorts everyone to concentrate, agrees with me somewhat on Mac.
330 – Wolves can be right 100% if they wish (in response to Volo calling Dury innocentish), Mac one of his top suspects, inclined to trust Rikae's gut feelings on Mac... calls Lommy innocentish “as she's my daughter and I see her acting just sooo Lommyishly”, Nerwen wolfishly putting Mac alongside Rikae and Lommy, presupposing Mac's guilt and Lommy's and my innocence, still uneasy about Volo and Mith.
Now, it really looks to me as if he's trying the same thing with Lommy that I did to Mac in the last game. It's also interesting that he points out Nerwen might be doing what he could very well be doing himself if a wolf... plus, the fact that he builds an argument on mine and Lommy's innocence and Mac's wolvishness is a bit far-fetched, considering he's not supposed to know anyone's role.
393 – Votes for Macalaure, but not too happy about it, Nerwen's vote for Volo looks weird (assuming Mac is a wolf), Volo looks more weird than wolfish.
396 – If what Mac says is true, look at Rikae and Lommy.

Overall: Continues looking bad. May very well have had the “look at Rikae and Lommy” already planned for this Morning (although it can also be an honest reaction to Mac's innocence.) Doubts about Mac at the last minute (when he's already dead) – that never looks good.

Day 4

409 – We can't afford too many votes that miss their target, must reconsider everything, comments on narration. Hm, it would have been particularly insufferable, knowing he killed Greenie!
414 – Casts suspicion back on Lommy and Rikae over making the kill choices.
425 – Too much comradery between Rikae and Lommy. Criticizes Lommy for trusting Rikae too easily and vice versa, criticizes Lommy's bringing in RL arguments, says he didn't know Greenie wouldn't be around. Wolves might be quiet, lettling loud people kill each other. Lommy and Rikae could be wolves together. Lommy and Volo using presupposed “wolf logic” to cast suspicion in convenient directions. Volo and Menel acting like hasty wolves.
Of course, Lommy and I both agreed in suspecting him. Making us suspect each other instead would be ideal for a wolf. Still, an ordo feeling ganged-up on might react similarly.
426 – Asks Rikae for point behind classifications of reactions to Mac yesterDay.

Conclusions: Nogrod looks about 67% wolfish to me. He's being much friendlier and more agreeable than usual (well, he is Nogrod the agreeable, but still); he seems to have been trying to buddy up to Mac, Lommy and I until today, and not only do the kills fit his eternal “kill the innocents, keep the loudmouths around” crusade (maybe as a wolf, he's finally found the chance to put it into practice), he even suggests this is what the wolves are doing. He first encouraged the Gwath bandwagon, then made a show of opposing it and used it the next day to accuse several people, including four known innocents. On the other hand, his switch from arguing Nerwen's wolfishness based on Mac's to suspecting Lommy and I based on Mac's innocence looks innocentish, although it could be explained as preplanned as well.

EDIT: Wow, I think that was my longest post ever.

03-02-2008, 11:44 PM	#12
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Nogrod - Day 1 12 -He started off in his first post with nonsense and a rather optimistic, but obvious, assessment of the situation. Hey, I was looking forward to trying a no-gifted game too... I understand that. 28 – Introduces lynch-the-quiets plan. He seems to be talking about general principles to excess. He says THE Ka and Volo give him “bad vibes”, but then relativizes that. He also sets up the possibility that he will vote for a silent person. (Sure, that is something he brings up in every game, but you have to admit, this would be a really convenient setup for a wolf. ) Actually, one thing that has bothered me about Nogrod in this game is that he hasn't gone after me aggressively, as he almost always does. I find it easier to believe that he knew I was innocent all along, than that he suddenly became able to recognize my innocence! I feel a bit as though he's “buddying up” to me (to use a phrase that seems to be popular in this game.) 31 -Makes some points about Menel and Mac. Says he can't read Sally and Boro, and thinks Lommy's innocent but it may be harder to read those you know from RL (indeed..). His points about Menel* and Mac look reasonable to me.* 76 -List of everyone's suspicions up to that point. 79 -Continues suspecting Menel. Seconds suspicions of Mac and Gwath. Has a bit too much of a go-with-the-flow feel, compared to the Nogrod* I know.* 81 – More suspicion of Menel, agrees with Lommy about Mac, considers it possible one or two of Sally-Dury-Gwath are wolves, but then says he'll probably vote for a “submarine”. 83 – Answers Volo's question, turns around and asks Volo why he thought it was important. 96 – Continues to make his case for lynching submarines, in reply to Greenie. 102 – Lists suspects. Top suspects Menel and Mac, “alarm bells ringing a bit louder” for Gwath. Uneasy about Nerwen, Volo, McCaber and THE Ka. Not wishing to bring up Boro, Rikae or Mith. Lommy seems innocent. 105- Vote count. 109 -Says Gwath might be a good candidate, because of his vote and lynching Gwath might shed light on Sally/Dury. Volo is strange. Repeats that he wouldn't like to lynch Mac. (More buddying up, this time to Mac? I also think it's a bit odd the way he jumped on my Gwath/Sally/Dury thing as though it were a more solid link than it actually was. He seems a bit too quick to agree.) 114 -McCaber surely is a candidate – last minute doubts about Gwath. 124 -Mac's post makes him look more innocent... agreement/disagreement are not the marks of good/evil. 128 -Is it Gwath (too easy) or McCaber (a shot in the dark on a master deciever)? 134- Votes for McCaber. 138 -Look at Volo and McCaber toMorrow; lynching of Gwath possibly too neat. Overall: Nogrod was definitely going along with others' suspicions more than usual, and there is much less of his typical thinking-in-circles, too. He seems to be buttering me, and later Mac, up (and possibly Lommy, too?), and backpedals on Gwath as soon as it becomes probable Gwath will be lynched. Day 2 154 -Comments on grotesqueness of narration. Agrees with Lommy on Sally being killed because she left no tracks. 160 -Tally with minutes before the deadline the vote was cast. 163- The Gwath bandwagon a good place for a wolf to hide... far-fetched that many declared they didn't want to see Boro lynched... Volo's vote is fishy because he says he's “widening the vote scope” 166- Agrees with Mac's suspicion of Menel and McCaber. Backpedals a bit on Volo: “It may be I kind of over-lived with the last minute bandwaggoning yesterDay and got a bit carried away looking Volo's vote as more malignant it actually was.” 172 -Looks at McCaber...could be a submarine-wolf wearing newbie mask. 194 - Looks at Volo. His vote was suspicious, he's creating the impression he's not too enthusiastic about playing, he acted defensive when suspected by Boro. Claims to agree with Lommy's concern that suspicion of McCaber is too unanimous, but then says he's not sure how unanimous it really is, and finds McCaber's assurances he'll post more later, but failure to do so, suspicious. 200 -Looks at people who said we shouldn't lynch Boro. Finds Mith, Lommy and Mac most suspicious with Volo trailing behind. Also finds McCaber suspicious for only looking at people who have already gotten votes. 205 – The Gwathwagon. Everybody who voted Gwath was voting safe. Finds everyone at least mildly suspicious. Now, consider that 4 of the seven (5, from my perspective) are known innocents...and another is Mith, who is either an innocent or playing very dirty. Also consider how scrupulously Nogrod avoided joining said wagon, although he helped it along dramatically with his “willl shed light on Sally/Dury” comment. 216 – Agrees with Lommy urging McCaber to write more. 222 – Tells me he didn't find me extremely suspicious (in his Gwathwagon post). Too friendly... 224 – Vote tally 235 - Nerwen needs to be looked at after Volo's point on her over-carefulness, Rikae a bit touchy but otherwise good and sensible, Durelin – no idea, torn about Mith (remember Rikae last time), Mac feels better all the time but Nog's uneasy about what he's capable of, Menel screams wolf (but more often than not ends up lynched as an innocent), not too easy with Volo but doesn't top his list, ready to lynch “timebomb” McCaber, THE Ka – no idea, Lommy looks innocent, Greenie's low-flying (and something else about her, but he doesn't know what) bothers him. 241 -Vote tally 245 – Could vote for McCaber, Greenie's vote looks bad, could see Menel but afraid it would go wrong, baffled by Volo. 248 – Let's not lynch Mac, he can be very helpful, if he's a wolf we'll catch him talking himself into a corner. 263 – “McCaber or Volo? I have no superior argument either way.” 265 – Votes for McCaber “the timebomb and the submarine” 270 – Thumbs up (to Mac for voting McCaber, I presume) Overall: Although he makes sensible points now and then, a wolf-Nogrod is certainly skilled enough to do so. The way he seems to continue to try to win Mac's, Lommy's and my trust bothers me. Of course, he may just be weeding out the “submarines”, as he says, while keeping those around he enjoys playing against most... but then again, he might well have been doing the same by night! The generalized focus on the entire Gwathwagon, in retrospect, also looks rather suspect. Day 3 284 -Wolves must feel comfortable, looking at kills – or creating that impression to move attention away from themselves... nightmare scenario: at least two of the loudmouthed are wolves keeping others of the same reputation alive to avoid drawing attention to themselves. This would be a bold statement indeed for a wolf-Nogrod* – and just the sort of bold statement a wolf-Nogrod would make, scarily enough.* 286 – Promises to look at various people. 288 – Still bothered by the people who talked about wanting to “save Boro”. Mith, Lommy, Mac and Volo involved there. Crosses tables of those and the people in the Gwath-wagon. 290 – Analyzes Nerwen. Does not give his conclusions, and Menel then calls it a revealing analysis and adds his own suspicions of Nerwen! Sure, Nogrod shows Nerwen suspecting several known innocents, but since when is that wolfish, really? This raises more questions for me about Menel, actually. (Or could Menel and Nogrod be wolves together?) 296 – Nerwen is careful and suspects/votes people others have suspected. Moves a notch upwards on suspicion-list. Edit: sees latest posts and has to think again. 297 – Asks me why I'm so sure about Mac. 300 -Exhorts everyone to concentrate, agrees with me somewhat on Mac. 330 – Wolves can be right 100% if they wish (in response to Volo calling Dury innocentish), Mac one of his top suspects, inclined to trust Rikae's gut feelings on Mac... calls Lommy innocentish “as she's my daughter and I see her acting just sooo Lommyishly”, Nerwen wolfishly putting Mac alongside Rikae and Lommy, presupposing Mac's guilt and Lommy's and my innocence, still uneasy about Volo and Mith. Now, it really looks to me as if he's trying the same thing with Lommy that I did to Mac in the last game. It's also interesting that he points out Nerwen might be doing what he could very well be doing himself if a wolf... plus, the fact that he builds an argument on mine and Lommy's innocence and Mac's wolvishness is a bit far-fetched, considering he's not supposed to know anyone's role. 393 – Votes for Macalaure, but not too happy about it, Nerwen's vote for Volo looks weird (assuming Mac is a wolf), Volo looks more weird than wolfish. 396 – If what Mac says is true, look at Rikae and Lommy. Overall: Continues looking bad. May very well have had the “look at Rikae and Lommy” already planned for this Morning (although it can also be an honest reaction to Mac's innocence.) Doubts about Mac at the last minute (when he's already dead) – that never looks good. Day 4 409 – We can't afford too many votes that miss their target, must reconsider everything, comments on narration. Hm, it would have been particularly insufferable, knowing he killed Greenie! 414 – Casts suspicion back on Lommy and Rikae over making the kill choices. 425 – Too much comradery between Rikae and Lommy. Criticizes Lommy for trusting Rikae too easily and vice versa, criticizes Lommy's bringing in RL arguments, says he didn't know Greenie wouldn't be around. Wolves might be quiet, lettling loud people kill each other. Lommy and Rikae could be wolves together. Lommy and Volo using presupposed “wolf logic” to cast suspicion in convenient directions. Volo and Menel acting like hasty wolves. Of course, Lommy* and I both agreed in suspecting him. Making us suspect each other instead would be ideal for a wolf. Still, an ordo feeling ganged-up on might react similarly.* 426 – Asks Rikae for point behind classifications of reactions to Mac yesterDay. Conclusions: Nogrod looks about 67% wolfish to me. He's being much friendlier and more agreeable than usual (well, he is Nogrod the agreeable, but still); he seems to have been trying to buddy up to Mac, Lommy and I until today, and not only do the kills fit his eternal “kill the innocents, keep the loudmouths around” crusade (maybe as a wolf, he's finally found the chance to put it into practice), he even suggests this is what the wolves are doing. He first encouraged the Gwath bandwagon, then made a show of opposing it and used it the next day to accuse several people, including four known innocents. On the other hand, his switch from arguing Nerwen's wolfishness based on Mac's to suspecting Lommy and I based on Mac's innocence looks innocentish, although it could be explained as preplanned as well. EDIT: Wow, I think that was my longest post ever.