I have not reread anything, but if we can trust
Nogrod's facts, then I think it is most probable that
Lhuna dreamt of
Oddwen or
Agan. This might be a reason for why
Agan was killed, too.
And
Nogrod, like I said, that preaching is absolutely unnecessary. I don't have anything against you suspecting me. I don't even have anything against you doing it rather forcefully or even on weak grounds. But I might have something to say if you do it in a manner that I consider suspicious.
I know I sometimes automatically trust people because they say they trust me. I know it's bad. But I am able to remind myself of it being stupid myself, thank you, Mr
Nogrod.

I don't think I've made such a judgement mistake in this game this far. I will tell you if I have.
And as for retaliatory suspects... yes, they're not a good thing in principle, but make more sense than it first seems. I mean, if I'm an innocent and you accuse me, I can see that it's a baseless case. Unless I'm a seer, I can't know it of your cases against other people. Everybody makes baseless cases, yes, but wolves do that more than other people do.
edit: xed with Gwath and Legate