[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

I have poem for you all. It's entitled "A Bucket Has Been Kicked"

Who is a wolf, I can not tell.
The thoughts in my head aren't clear as a bell.
Is it Mithalwen?
Or could it be Lhunardawen?
Or is it another?
All I know is the dairy farmer has been smothered
By men who take the shape of lycanthropes.
This problem has got this village by the throat.


Ok, on to business. Nogrod's critique of group based arguments in post 15 should be heeded. I'd like to add that the odds of being a wolve are x out of 14 (x=how many lycanthropes there are in this village.) If I had to guess, Nogrod's probably clean. Also, it doesn't matter whether someone has been a wolf before, the odds of someone being a wolf this time are still the same. Lhuna, Legate didn't say everyone was a cobbler, he said everyone was acting like a cobbler. On the other hand, the contents of your list may have been intended for humour as Lommy said, thus making your statement less suspicious in my opinion. As to Lommy's complaint about voting because one has to suspect someone seems perfectly innocent to me. As to Mithalwen, I'm inclined to agree with Kath that she's not a wolf on the grounds that she's playing for fun. I'll vote closer to the deadline.

Pretty much starts out silly. Though he almost seems like he has taken the liberty of explaining Noggie's posts for him. Not a whole lot to say on this (especially on my SIXTH attempt at a now-brief post) so let's just say that it makes me a tiny bit uncomfortable. Not a lot, but with Elf there's not a lot to go on, so I feel like I need to mention everything.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Nogrod,I can see why you would reason so, but I disagree. Maybe I'm an innocent who is looking for guidance, and who is persuaded by what you say.

++Aganzir

I agree with you about wolf plans, and you seem all right, but I'm going on a hunch. Please forgive me if you aren't a wolf.

Now this bothers me. "Maybe I'm an innocent and you're fooling me?" It seems to me like Elf is setting up an insanity defense well in advance.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Sorry for my quietness, all. Here's my list in rough order of suspiciousness:

Green light:
Mith. There's the possibility that Lhuna dreamt of her innocence, and I just don't see her being a wolf.
Oddwen. Possible seer dream and 2nd DAY vote for Gwath pretty much clear her.

Sally. Her vote seems to clear her, and because she said But if Nogrod is a wolf, that would negate this evidence because she would have been choosing between two wolves. However, she was on Gwath's case earlier so unless Gwath was a sacrificial wolf, she is pretty much in the clear.
Legate. If I had to guess, I'd say he's innocent. I think that Lhuna's gut feeling was right, that Gwath was trying to suck up to Legate. See post #36.

Nogrod: My feeling is that Gwath come against Nogrod too hard for him to be a wolf. But Lommy's arguments make me not completely write off the possibility that Nogrod is a wolf.

Lommy. Her vote against Gwath seems to clear her and I didn't find her that suspicious.

I wouldn't focus on any of these right now. I'd focus on my last two.

Yellow light:
Kath. I haven't seen much suspicious behaviour, but Kath being a wolf would seem to fit in with Gwath's lycanthropy. That doesn't mean she's a wolf, though.

Red light:
Nerwen. That thing about the wolves killing Lhuna doesn't sit well with me. Her being a wolf would also fit in with Gwath.

++Nerwen

What you can do, Nogrod, is make a clear and convincing vote for a wolf. Just my two cents.

Again, seems like a subtle-ish packmate tip. Now, I did much the same thing, thinking that Noggie couldn't possibly be packmate to Gwath, but since I know my role and not Elf's I need to be critical of this behavior, as I expect people to say the same of me. The last part, again, packmate advice. "Make a smooth vote, or you're in deep Padawan Poo[h]."

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

I'm sorry, Nogrod, I saw, but I didn't observe. Looking at Nogrod's DAY 2 vote again, about the only way I can see Nogrod being a wolf is if Gwath was a sacrificial wolf, so you're probably innocent. *casts a sideways glance at Lommy* Hear the man out. Vote Nerwen.

Now that we know that was the case, this looks especially bad. Again, I made the same mistake, but since Elf has had so many other things suspicious about his posts, this is worrisome.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Sally, you said something about strange ties. How strangely? Faith, even with losing my wits. I could kick myself for trusting Nogrod.

My last post yesterDAY was cross posted, but when I saw that I had cross-posted (including with Nogrod's post saying that I had lit a fire, but I didn't cross post with his statement saying he had already cast a clear and convincing vote for a wolf), the deadline had already past.

Possible. If this is the case, I am truly sorry, but I cannot trust anyone anymore, not after what happened with Noggie.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

I've been wondering, how likely is it that there were four wolves in this village? In post #204 Legate said, "if we have three wolves..." He later says there could be two or three. We know there were more than two. Am I just being too pessimistic here?

Legate, I'd say she did directly interact with Nogrod.

In the very next post Sally quotes this statement without an "originally posted by..." and says,

Defending me in a way. So if he's the other wolf he's definitely continuing the set-up job on me.






EDIT IN ADVANCE: I'm posting all this just to make sure I don't have to go through and find it all again. Then I'll add in my bits. Sorry, but I'm sick of having my posts get eaten, so I'm going to be a little shady and edit my way into a post. Thanks for understanding!