[Formendacil]

I retain a suspicion that at least one werewolf is hiding among the numerous Sixth voters. If nothing else, they comprise a bloc of voters that is just shy of 1/3 of the community, and so it seems statistically likely that 1/3 of the wolves voted thusly--if we assume all votes equal. They aren't, of course, but we haven't enough hindsight yet to weigh them accurately.

Our votes then (culled from Sally's very useful voting record, for Sixth:

Sally-->Sixth at 4:29pm
Boro-->Sixth at 5:42pm
Elf-->Sixth at 5:54pm
Agan-->Sixth at 5:56pm
Noggie-->Sixth at 5:59pm

As for Sally herself, her vote is sufficiently early in the record (although late in the day) to not garner too much suspicion. Few people had voted yet, she wasn't bandwaggoning, and accusing Sixth is entirely understandable since a case could be made that he was trying to fly under the radar. That being said, however, Sixth had definitely given signs of having fallen off the map, and with an hour and a half left of game time, Sally could have been taking a calculated risk that he would turn up towards the end and leave her vote just one of a number of one-only votes.

Suspicion Level: Low-to-Moderate

Boromir's vote brought Sixth to a tie for lynching with Mith. Although hardly a deciding vote, it is still a very crucial one in my opinion, since with under 20 minutes left and a number of votes yet uncast, those remaining to vote would likely be waiting to see where the wind was blowing, and cast one's vote onto a bandwaggon accordingly. In this case, Boromir's vote meant that Mithalwen was NOT the only player with a multiple number of votes. With this in mind, if Boromir IS a wolf, then Mith very well may be too.

Nothing conclusive from his voting, though it IS suspicious, but on top of this I would add a general feeling from Boromir's reaction to his inability to be online. Now, granted, he could be just a villager or gifted frustrated with an inability to contribute (Boro definitely fits the profile), but his anxiety seems to me almost a bit more personally related, as though he isn't able to influence the actions of the game as he would like. Obviously, this need not make him a wolf--he could just as easily be a cobbler--but it does raise the suspiciousness in my eyes.

Suspicion Level: Moderate-to-High

Elf-warrior's vote, as I have said, looks very bad. Not only did it solidly put Sixth in the lead--a lead he never lost, it was done for very vague reasons. As Nerwen puts it, he's pre-defensive. I would put it differently--he's calculatedly defiant. There's an air about his post of "this isn't really random and I'm not even going to make it look random." Overall, Elf-warrior seems to be posting just enough to not appear to be lurking, but not really substantially enough to form a judgement on--save his vote, which I would say speaks for itself.

Also, as with Boromir, if Elf-warrior is a wolf, one should definitely take a closer look at Mith for potential wolvishness.

Suspicion Level: High

Aganzir has been pushing buttons for two days now... but my understanding is that this is how she normally plays--an understanding that I may pay dearly for if I'm wrong. Her vote against Sixth is the least damning of the five, I would say, and I may get in hot water for saying why. Basically, it boils back to my opinions about Day 1s. Agan's vote, rightly or wrongly, strikes me in such a way as to suggest a similar attitude towards the likelihood of analysing a wolf out of the struggle, and while definitely not random, it's almost as if she's voting for Sixth with the attitude of "if we can't find a wolf, let's at least get rid of the deadwood" (no offence to the deceased, but Sixth was definitely not contributing a lot, real life circumstances to blame or no).

A case can be made against Agan, but I am not inclined to think in that direction.

Suspicion Level: Low

This leaves Nogrod. Perhaps I may seem biased after my vote against him yesterday, but I find him suspicious--albeit on actual grounds this time. Nogrod is no dullard, so the fact that he throws his vote away on Sixth at the very last minute, when there was already no doubt that he was going to be lynched, cannot be simply taken as a sign of an innocent tacking his vote on for the sake of voting and not wanting to make a decision that made a difference.

Rather, it would appear more likely that Nogrod is a wolf attempting to look like that, knowing that adding his vote uselessly to someone a wolf would know is innocent would give him just a touch of suspicion--enough to explain his lack of death at wolvish hands in days to come, and to free him from more serious suspicion that would come from a more serious vote.

Unfortunately, the whole difficulty with my crediting Nogrod with great intelligence here is that one can go deeper and deeper... what if Nogrod is a gifted looking like a werewolf looking like an ordo? Or a cobbler looking like a gifted looking like a werewolf looking like an ordo? Or a werewolf looking like a cobbler looking like a gifted looking like a werewolf looking like an ordo?

Suspicion Level: Moderate

On the basis of the above, I would be most inclined to vote Elf-warrior, but Boromir and Nogrod would be considerable also, if the voting winds blow that way.