[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Highly Suspicious - Shasta
He tied Form and Mith. If he was looking to be self-preserving it would have been easier to vote Mith ahead than create another tie. When he voted Mith, was at four votes and Form and himself were at three each.

That's a good point indeed - and it lead mo to re-read once again that stuff in the end of the previous Day.


The last three voters must all have been aware of Sallycobbler's vote after which the situation was: Mith2, Shasta2, Form2 - all even.

Okay then myself and Form voted at the same minute on 10.56.

I already told I was about to do that in any case and that I didn't like the way the voting was heading and decided to act. Form I think had at least self-preservation issues behind his vote and looking back at the Day it looked quite self-evident Mith would be the one to be lynched. If I remember it correctly he had also thought of voting Shasta (or me). Now were Form a fellow-wolf of Mith, voting Shasta would have been a decent idea he could have defended if needed. So I think it less likely Form is a wolf because of his vote there. Not impossible though.

After the two votes for Mith at 10.56 the situation was: Mith4, Shasta2, Form2


Then we get to the interesting part.



The next one to vote is Boro.

10.57 Boro – Shasta (Mith4, Shasta3, Form2)

Now the first question is, whether he had seen my vote and Form's vote eg. was he up to the situation where Mith was in the lead with four votes or whether he still thought it was a threeway tie? He writes that someone has to break the tie when he votes; also his post came at the next minute from the two earlier ones so it looks quite believable he really thought he was the first to break the tie.

This leaves me yet the questions I've already raised A) why Shasta and not Mith & B) why no reaction after the presumed "breaking of the tie" ended up messing the situation?



The second last is Aganzir (on the same minute with Boro but there were a few posts in bewtween them and as her votepost is such a short one I'd bet she was knowledgeable at least of Mith's lead if not also Boro's vote on Shasta.)

10.57 Aganzir – Form (Mith4, Shasta3, Form3)

Let me walk you through her last posts leading to that vote and then make a few comments...


9.22

I think lynching Mith would give us the most insight today.

9.44

It's funny that yesterday Mith looked much more suspicious than Nogrod and today it's vice versa.

10.30

Actually, I thought it was likely that either Mith or Nogrod was a wolf, and Mith looked more wolfish. Though today Nogrod has been much more suspicious ...
Somehow I'm not so sure anymore if I want to vote for Mith. Kitanna and Nogrod feel worse, and to an extent also Form.

10.42

I could vote for Nogrod too.
I'll eat my hat with feathers and all if neither Mith nor Nog is a wolf, and today I'd prefer trying Nog.

10.49

Starting to sound a bit desperate, are you, Nog? Either you or Mith is a wolf, yesterday I thought Mith, today you.

Two tallies between 10.49 - 10.55...

10.56

I think our chances with Form are better than with Mith.

10.57 Votes Form:

I've grown so suspicious of him in these last few minutes.

10.58

Even if Mith dies, it's going to reveal a lot about Nog.

10.59

*just waiting for someone to vote for Shasta so three people are tied *

Now a few things.

- Up to ten minutes before the deadline she repeats her point that either me or Mith is a wolf. When it came obvious that she couldn't get me lynched (a nice try though) she also abandoned the idea of lynching Mith.

- Her constant tallying (and toying around with phantomness to explain it) is interesting as well. At least it shows she was extremely keen on being up to date. It might speak of a situation where things were not going nice from her angle as I don't remember she is normally like that...

- Her point that we'd have better chances with lynching Form than Mith is has two things I keep wondering. First of all how about Shasta as a chance? Her not even mentioning him speaks on behalf of the theory they're together the last wolves. By remaining silent about Shasta whom people had talked a lot the last few hours speak for that. Secondly, and referring at my first point, it is interesting that the other one of her "either X or Y is a wolf" isn't that good a chance anymore even if Mith hadn't posted a single post between the ones I've quoted up there... but she'd rather vote for someone she had "picked" just in the last minutes.

- That last big grin is just pure evil - something I'd believe coming from evil Aganzir... and the need to kind of lighten it up in the post-DL answer.



And last but not least Shasta

10.58 Shasta – Form (Mith4, Shasta3, Form4)

First of all I'm inclined to believe he knew the voting-situation as he managed to post once already after Agan's vote for Form. If he didn't, his vote becomes even less comprehensible...

So when he voted the situation was Mith 4 votes and himself and Form on 3. But even more interesting I think is the question of whether he was fully aware that there was still The Ka to vote, or did he think he was the last to vote?

In the first case (he was aware The Ka hadn't voted) his vote looks quite odd for an innocent as well as a wolf would have gladly voted for Mith to secure their own heads as the Ka could have voted for him bringing him to the shared top-position. Unless he weighed the risks and thought it such unlikely that The Ka would turn out that he decided to risk it for a reason or another: for an altruistic reason of getting not the "obvious wolf" lynched but the might be wolf... ) or then in effort to save his mate Mith.

In the second case that calculation-possibility sounds much more probable to me. If he hadn't no fear there was someone coming to vote after him he could go his way (look above for the options).



Summa summarum: Looking yet another time at the last minute voting has made me feel a bit better about Boro and a lot more suspicious of both Agan and Shasta.